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What strikes me, Zanie, is that um we've had a test of how far uh Israel can depend upon America to help it destroy Iran's nuclear capability. If Iran looks like a threat and we've discovered that there are limits to that and I think the limits after this war have actually shrunk. So Israel now has a it was able to work on the assumption that in the worst came to the worst, America would always use kinetic force against Iran. I think there's more doubt about that now and I think a strategy that's based on that certitude that America will turn up has now got some question marks against it and to my mind that's that's a pretty big change.
It's a very big change and it's a big change that goes beyond just Netanyahu because it presumably means that Israel needs to think again about its sort of security doctrine. But just before we get to that, I am uh Greg, I want to ask you um because you have thought a lot about Lebanon. That strikes me as the one area where Netanyahu perhaps with never admitting it can try and just undermine the whole thing. Do you think he can play spoiler there? You're right. Lebanon is mentioned, but it's mentioned in a very vague way where the deal says that America and its allies, it doesn't even mention Israel by name, uh, will respect Lebanon's territorial integrity and sovereignty in
this initial phase of the deal. And then if they get to a final deal, that means a permanent end to the war in Lebanon. And there's enough squishiness there that the Iranians can say theou requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon immediately. and the Americans can say no actually they don't need to withdraw until we reach a final agreement and you could argue that uh both sides are right. I think the question is going to be not so much around territorial withdrawal as will America restrain Israel from carrying out air strikes particularly in Beirut which have been escalatory in recent weeks and will Iran restrain Hezbollah from carrying out attacks on northern Israel? Can we just find out from Nick whether he
thinks that Iran will actually restrain Hezbollah? I think they're going to be watching Israel very closely. They're aware that Netanyahu has a veto on this memorandum by virtue of his ability to strike in and break the ceasefire in Lebanon. If that happens, I think they will respond, but they'll be looking to Trump primarily to reign Israel in. But for Israel itself um let's say even post election what is the sort of strategic approach to the region now given that Iran has been sort of the you know the main focus of Israel under Netanyahu at least Israeli foreign policy for such a long time an what's like what's the kind of strategic posture of the country can I you know perennially trying to be
optimistic think that perhaps this makes a lot of things like peace with the Palestinians a better relationship with the Gulf country is more likely or is that just completely pie in the sky? Israel is right now in a strategic vacuum. Israel had a national security doctrine until October 7 which was based on deterrence and early warning and that collapsed on October 7 and that basically collapsed on all the fronts because Israel at that point actually was quite vulnerable to his perhaps also to Iran. And then Israel went the other way all the way and has been basically at almost unending war for nearly three years now, including capturing buffer
zones in Gaza, in Lebanon, and in Syria and fighting two wars against Iran. Was this is all unthinkable just three years ago. And now we've seen with this with the outcome what seems to be for now the outcome of the war in Iran, also the limits of Israel's military powers. and we don't have something to replace that. Very briefly, it's not just a new security doctrine that Israel needs. It's also a new diplomatic doctrine. You haven't really seen Israel engage in uh negotiations at a time when the region has been a wash with diplomatic initiatives. You've seen the return of Syria into the fold. You're seeing
potentially now the return of Iran into the fold. I think Israel also needs to look not just at its military options, but its diplomatic ones. And it would be exciting to see a leader emerge who talked about diplomacy as well as military options. One thing that will impact that I think will be how Israel views its relationship with the United States and Ed for you as you look at this um clearly a disastrous outcome for BB. But what about the longerterm impact on the USIsraeli relationship? How do you see that? I think it's bad. I'm afraid I mean as we this is going on the Democratic primaries of candidates are tearing themselves apart over their allegiance to Israel. one candidate in New York that he's he will lose the
primary simply because he's not prepared to call what happened in Gaza a genocide and the radical who's come alongside him is I mean it's on the Democratic side there's a lot of reckoning to happen and I don't see this the end of the war in Iran really fundamentally changing that on the right I think um oxygen's being given to the MAGA right who see this as being you know all Israel's fault and I think Trump by temperament will encourage that.
