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Missiles are flying again in Iran. Goldman Sachs has a warning for us in terms of what's happening in the stock market right now. And Robbo Bank is completely confused. And we're going to break all of this down in this video, including what just happened minutes ago with US Sentcom reporting multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and drones being taken down, failing to hit their targets, but then counter striking against them. We're not sure what came first. The chicken or the egg, we got to break it all down. But what I can tell you right now is there is a rocket ship on the screen in front of me and it is Marll Technologies. This is a stock we've been buying in the alpha
membership at meetke.com. You can join. There's a coupon code. It's up another 9% in after hours which is absolutely wild right now. It's been an incredible ride on this particular stock. We even about I would say about 10 days ago mentioned this on this channel as a rocket ship that people should pay attention to. Of course, we mentioned it before that in the course member live streams and our fundamental analysis. You could always be a part of that over at mem.com. But for now, let's get into the actual data. As much as that rocket ship is awesome, let's focus on what's going on. So, first let's get Iran out of the way. Then we'll do Goldman, then
we'll do Robbo Bank. So SenCom says US forces successfully defeated multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and drones and conducted selfdefense strikes on Keshum Island. Now Keshum Island strikes are very interesting because Iran is saying that one of their communication towers was struck which that has led others to argue waiting communication towers in defensive strikes. This is all a war of words at this point. Anyway, Iran allegedly says they hit their targets. And of course, SenCom says, "No, you didn't." Sentcom says two missiles in Kuwait failed to hit their target. Uh, and you could actually see those uh on video here.
Here you can see a little bit of uh those missiles. Then we had apparently three missiles launched at Bahrain and those were intercepted. So in this next clip I'll show you, you'll be able to see an interception. The person who filmed this also filmed a car crash happening at the same time, which is kind of crazy because, you know, if you're filming like rockets going off during a supposed ceasefire, that's pretty dramatic as is. And then for somebody to basically get in a car crash almost taking you out with it, you know, that's probably pretty dramatic as well. Anyway, then we've got uh these explosions reported over here in Bahrain. We could see these um potentially interceptions uh taking place right here. Yeah, you could see uh
those interceptions taking place right here. So uh this uh the United States does partner with Bahrain in defending against these missile strikes, whether they're ballistic missiles or uh drone attacks. The uh US Sentcom did mention that three one-way attack drones were also taken down and no US personnel were hurt. But it clearly shows us that so far negotiations just must not be going very well. No US personnel hurt. Marco Rubio says yes, Iran maintains their drone capabilities. And Trump says, "Hey, we're working on negotiating." But the problem is we're not really getting anywhere with these negotiations. And now we've got WTI, which is the Western Intermediate blend for oil rocketing
back up to $95 per barrel, which honestly is not actually that horribly bad. I would have honestly expected a lot more for these sort of attacks going on and I think that's where Goldman Sachs points to slightly different risks and so we should point out some of those. So first Goldman Sachs says that right now equities have seen remarkable strength given the current array of risks which would include obviously what's going on in the straight of Hormuz. They say that since World War II, the S&P 500 has only seen a two-month gain this fast, as in a 16% gain in two months coming out of recession. Well, mostly because uh you'll see in just a moment. See, they break them down right here. So, basically, it Goldman Sachs is saying
it's really odd that the S&P 500 is up 16% in two months. In fairness, markets kind of gave up on worrying about Iran at the beginning of April. And then we realized, holy smokes, hardware is a massive discount. That's where in our course live streams, I wrote, and we showed this in a documented manner, and you can go through our historical course member live streams on this, but we looked at this when we looked at uh Marll this morning. were like, "Hey, we called AMD, Nvidia, and Marll undervalued stocks likely to rally." And that was back when Marll was $127 billion market cap company. I mean, I showed that this morning and a lot of you have actually joined the course member live streams and uh alpha membership. Thank you for doing that.
But the company is almost twice, actually, if you include after hours, the company is twice the market cap it was when we did that analysis. Now, Bitcoin is obviously selling off. We'll talk about Bitcoin in just a moment. Look at this Goldman note here. The yellow commentary there is mine. We'll come back to the yellow stuff. They say this S&P 500 two-month gain has only happened four times since World War II. In three of those cases, these recoveries happened after a recession. And in only one of those cases did it happen outside of a recession, but it occurred right before Black Monday of October 1987. So they're basically implying that this sort of 16% gain represents a 75% chance of, you know, something that would be
associated with coming out of a recession. I don't know if that implies uh recession or coming out of a recession. We'll break that down in a moment. uh or a 25% chance of going into sort of a black Monday. This is it. The hardware bubble is blowing up. Everything's going into the toilet. I kind of agree with this these odds that I think, you know, in three out of four realities, we're probably still, you know, having legs in this market and we keep moving up 25% black Monday. Okay, reasonable. But let's understand for a moment this coming out of a recession argument. You could make the argument that what we've seen with jobs data is almost reminiscent, if you believe the data, the ADP data, the
private payrolls do reiterate this data, mind you, but is almost reminiscent of us coming out of a jobs recession that you've seen the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers collapse almost as if we're in a recession. and the now are you turning out of it, which we touched on this morning, which I could see that as arguing that it's almost like you came out of an employment recession at the end of the year, but you don't see that in GDP because AI just butters over all of it, right? Butter my biscuits. Anyway, uh now the next thing to consider with this is what I did is I took their chart and I actually manipulated their chart a little bit.
See, they drew this dotted black line and said, "See, there have only been four times this has occurred uh in, you know, previous to today, these 16% rallies in 2 months." And most of the time that was coming out of a recession or before a market crash at 25% of the time. But what I did is I actually just lowered the threshold by putting this little red dotted line. And I lowered that probably to like 15% or 14%. And you actually trigger it a lot more. You can see you trigger it over here in 1955. You trigger it over here in about 1984. These two circles that kind of look like boobs over here. Uh those triggered in the early 2000. That could be about 2003 actually. That would be
about the bottom when the Fed turned the money printer on. That would make sense. Uh and then over here in about 1998 and then again uh twice actually not quite over here. Uh, so I'd say yeah, not quite. So it happens a lot more often, probably twice as often as Goldman is in is implying when you just lower the standard to about 14%. So I think that Goldman data Oh, I'm sorry. Oh, this is actually Deutsche Bank. Sorry for slandering Goldman Sachs. This is actually Deutsche Bank research. Whatever. Not that anybody necessarily really cares. But the point is I think they went a little aggressive on this and I don't know that it's too terribly much of a signal especially since we've come out of this ceasefire uh at least impression of a
ceasefire or concept of a ceasefire and markets have looked for value instead and they found it in AI hardware which is justifiable at this point. Now, how long that stays justifiable always depends on token costs and artificial intelligence capex. Like what we're seeing with Google spending and raising $80 billion, 10 billion from Birkshare, 30 billion in uh stock issuance, 40 billion coming later in stock issuance. That is going to be really interesting to see how that impacts Google stock because that stock actually hasn't hit the market yet. It's going to be very interesting. But it has led Robbo Bank to warn of risks. See, Robbo Bank is now expecting no progress on the straight of hormuz until
September. Now, to me, this means higher yields are likely until about the first or second quarter of 2027. Basically, more pain for rate sensitive stocks. Anybody investing in rate sensitive stocks should know that you basically need brass balls to touch them right now because there's no sign right now of rate sensitives going up because there's no sign of rates coming down. And this quote unquote memorandum of misunderstanding is part of the reason. See, Robbank is confused because they say, "Hey, there's talk about Qatar sending a12 billion loan to Iran." While at the same time, Donald Trump is signaling, you know, through rumors $300
billion of an investment fund for the reconstruction of Iran, suggesting that maybe this is, you know, basically showing a US defeat. You know, in other words, like, oops, we capitulated. We lost. Uh, we shouldn't have done this, and now we're gonna paper over it with funny money. Anyway, our funny money protection fund, uh, also known as Bitcoin, which I'm not invested in. I'm not a big fan of Bitcoin, and I'm not trying to insult Bitcoin. It just hasn't been my thing. Um, Bitcoin has not been doing very well, and there is at least a little bit of commentary on this. You can see some of that commentary right here from this is from Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs argues that Micro Strategy really gave a
nice little kick in the butt when they sold about 32 Bitcoin. Like it's not actually that much, but it's about 2 and a.5 billion. And Goldman is saying that they are going to use that to fund their preferred stock, which would be something like an STRC, which I personally think is a Ponzi, and I'm really bearish on it, but I have separate videos on STRC. I don't believe in STRC at all. And uh I think STRC and some of these other funds are really vehicles to offload Micro Strategy debt onto these other feeder funds. And it's really brilliant for Michael Sailor because he basically just derisked all the debt at Micro Strategy. But it's in my opinion terrible for all those other feeder funds. But you know,
whatever. They're providing return of capital uh yields that people are very uh enticed by. But I'm not very optimistic about that. And I'm not trying to dump on Bitcoin while it's down. It's rather to say that Goldman has actually noticed that recently there has been a decoupling between Bitcoin and IGV. That is IGV the software ETF has started inflecting higher but has actually broken the trend of staying correlated with IGV. Uh and as a result of that uh you've ended up seeing oops dupsies uh Bitcoin become even more sensitive to geopolitics. There's almost this belief now, almost a self-fulfilling belief that the more drama we see happen in Iran, the more pain there is for Bitcoin. And that's why Bitcoin did just fall to about 66,600,
which again is unfortunate because the rest of the market is at all-time highs, but it's mostly driven by hardware. Now, if I go over here to Google Finance, we could actually see if that's true. Uh, we're going to go out to, let's say, a six-month period here. Yep, there's the breakout. Take a look at that. Uh, this is over a six-month period. You can compare IGV to BTC, Bitcoin, right? And you can see how closely correlated these two have been in performance right here. Very, very tight in performance. Uh, uh, you know, maybe within a few percentage points of each other, but pretty dang consistent. And then starting about the middle of May, about May 15th, you've actually started seeing IGV inflect up,
although we had a little bit of a give back today. Uh, and Bitcoin continue to inflect down. Now, if I zoom out to about a year or five years, fiveyear does show though that Bitcoin did get a little uh, you know, maybe excited over here. Honestly, this was probably the Trump fat right here is what I would call it. Uh, in other words, I'm not and I'm not calling Donald Trump fat. Um, you know, what we're saying is when Bitcoin really rallied to about that 127 all-time high, you had a lot of enthusiasm about the first ever Bitcoin president and uh, you know, ETF flows were just a new thing. Leveraged ETFs, there were a lot of new financial products and you know, getting Bitcoin into people's retirement accounts or whatever. A lot of that I
would argue is really that Trump fat. So it's possible that even on the sixmon you have this inflection point of IGV going up and Bitcoin going down more. It's possible that Bitcoin is just converging back to where it sort of should be in this longer run uh you know correlation to IGV. So for Bitcoin bulls hopefully that's the case and as IGV keeps going up these end up pairing together. That would be the hopeful Bitcoin case. Something to think about. Uh anyway, briefly just finishing off because uh the uh Robbo Bank piece because I don't think I really finished that uh up as well as I should have. If
the US were to step back from the region, it's not exactly clear who would step in. And in other words, you would continue to see instability between Israel and Hezbollah as well as instability in the Middle East. Now, obviously, the issues between Israel and uh Iran and you know, terrorist groups in the regions have been going on for decades. But what's, you know, wild here is that Hezbollah did, at least as far as we can tell, and so did Israel. Both of them adhere to almost a actually was slightly more than a one-year ceasefire between the two groups uh after the original ceasefire that we had. The problem is Iran and Donald Trump then decided to go to war. And so
what do you have when those two groups go to war? Oh, wow. What a surprise. All of a sudden, you've got Hezbollah now attacking northern Israel. And Israel's like, "Uh, okay. Here's our license to go deep into Lebanon." Not great. Hezbollah, in fairness, did between those two start firing at Israel in March. But again, that was after the February 28th Israeli attacks in coordination with the United States against Iran. So, it's a mess of a situation. And you know, there are always going to be people who are like, "Oh, well, he started it. restarted it. That never solves anything. The fact of the matter is the groups are fighting and there's no end in sight right now, which is
unfortunately not good. But so far, the stock market just doesn't care. And I hate to say it, but even oil going up right now isn't really stopping the stock market. You've got WTI sitting just under 95 now. Brent sitting at about 97. pretty dang stable for the oil market uh given the disruption in the area. And of course, you've got the CNBC banner here about Japan's Nicay 225 hitting a record high. Let's go pull it up. Nicay 225. And uh there you go. Year to date, you are up 30% in the Japanese stock market. Uh over the last year, you're actually up 80% in the Japanese stock market. Uh and if of course if you go out to max you can see that loss period of time here. Look at that. If
you invested over here at the peak in 1990 around 38,000 it would have taken you around oh wow 24 oh 34 years to break even and finally you're you're uh you're actually recovering here. Part of this has to be it has to do with Japan's well depopulation. There are estimates now that Japan is really actually going to shrink in population. Part of this has to do with frankly like one of the lowest birth rates in the world. You know that the replacement rate for humans is 2.1, right? So a dude and a lady have to have a child, right? We don't have to go into how exactly all that works. You know, there's PP invol. We love it when PP is evolved. Anyway, um you need about 2.1 births to just replace the mommy and daddy because the
0.1 covers death and disease and accidents and all that kind of crap. So the replacement rate is 2.1. Any birth rate under 2.1 means the population is shrinking. Japan is at like 1.1 which is ridiculously low. Their population is down about 3 million over the last 5 years. uh about 123 million population last year peaked in 2008 at 128 million projected to shrink all the way down to 87 million. That's down another like nearly 40 million which is crazy by 2080 which is crazy. Those are some crazy projections. So, a lot of people um not being born and a lot of people expiring on the other end, I guess. But that's bad because when you have a shrinking nation, you end up hurting growth and you burden the country's health care
system and all turns into a mess. In the meantime, even though we have this expanded disaster with Iran, the good news is you can still use coupon code Marll. Let's freaking go with that rocket ship. Get all nine courses, get every trade alert, get every private live stream, every fundamental analysis, every alpha report. Join once, get lifetime access, and we'll see you in the next video. Thanks so much for being here. And goodbye. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes.
Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.
