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It's no secret that US President Donald Trump loves to talk about the war in Ukraine, blaming Biden for it, demanding that Ukraine return incredible amounts of money, occasionally attacking Zelenskyy, and praising Putin's alleged commitment to diplomacy. In recent months, Trump has been preoccupied with other matters, such as the war he started against Iran and the US elections, so Ukraine has been mentioned less frequently than before. But in October, Trump made a loud comeback, announcing a diesel deal with Russia and accusing Zelensky of waging war. Today we will discuss Trump's new diplomatic offensive, the latest developments on the battlefield, and other key events of the war in Ukraine for October 2026.
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Join by scanning the QR code on the screen, following the links in the description or pinned comment, or by clicking the "Join" button below the video. Let's start with the most important events on the battlefield. The Third Army Corps of Ukraine announced the completion of Operation Vivaldi-a counteroffensive in the Lyman direction, which radically changed the situation in Donbas. Through a series of counterattacks, the Ukrainian army liberated over 200 square kilometers of territory and 16 settlements north and northeast of the Liman, pushing the Russian army back across the Zherebets River.
The Ukrainian command claims over 8,000 Russian army casualties, several hundred captured Russian soldiers, and the almost complete destruction of the 144th Russian Motorized Rifle Division, which operated in this area. The strategic impact of this counteroffensive is also undeniable. The capture of Donbas remains Russia's main political and military goal, and the capture of the belt of fortresses is the key to achieving it. By eliminating the Russian salient north of Sloviansk, the Ukrainian army deprived the occupiers of the opportunity to take the belt of fortresses in a pinch, which would likely have made the battle less costly for the Russians.
Instead, they have now lost a significant portion of the territories they had captured in grueling battles since 2025. Operation Vivaldi will go down in history as one of the most important counteroffensives by Ukraine in this war, along with the Kharkiv and Kherson operations. A little further south of this sector, Russian sources report fighting along the line from Yampol to Tykanivka. As part of its new strategy, Ukraine does not disclose the details of these clashes, but Russian military bloggers report on the successes of Ukrainian forces in the area of Azerna, Piskunivka, Kryvoruka, Mykolaivka, Fedorivka Druha, and Holubivka. Some of the areas reportedly captured by the Ukrainians are of tactical importance, such as Kryvoruk, a
commanding height south of the Seversky Donets River, which could aid the Ukrainian army in future operations in the area. Although we know little about the fighting in this area, the Ukrainian army is clearly seeking to push the Russians as far away from Sloviansk and Kramatorsk as possible, as well as to postpone or divert the battle for the northern part of the defensive belt. In the southern half of the defense belt, the Russians continue to hold the initiative. Despite the overly optimistic statements of the Russians, the battle for Konstantinovka is still ongoing. In October, the Russians made some progress, but the Ukrainian army continues to hold part of the city. On the flanks of their offensive, they have been stuck near Osykovo and
south of Avdiivka for several weeks. However, the situation south of Dobropillya for Ukraine continues to deteriorate. In October, the Russians made significant advances on the flanks of Dobropillya, reaching a large river and crossing it in some sections. According to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Biletsky, it was in the Dobropillya area that the southern prong of the Russian offensive, aimed at encircling the defensive belt, was to begin. But after the defeat of the northern group near Liman, the main goal of this Russian offensive here is most likely to advance along the T0514 route to complicate the supply of Ukrainian units fighting to the southeast of it. On the Zaporizhzhia Front, the Russians are developing an
offensive east of Orekhov. In October, they continued their western offensive on Orikhiv along a line roughly from Pryluky to Malaya Tokmachka. Less progress is also observed in the Maly Shcherbaky area. The goal is apparently to surround and capture Orikhiv, another local logistics hub, and then possibly advance to the city of Zaporizhzhia along the T0803 route. On the Oskil Front, the battle for Kupyansk continues to rage as Ukraine maintains control of the city, attempting to repel Russian saboteurs and clear the outskirts of Kupyansk. For example, Ukrainian sources report Ukrainian cleanup operations in Ridkodub.
Saboteurs are forced to move on foot because drones make vehicles an easy target in the area. One of the common tactics used by the Russians to penetrate the Ukrainian rear or bypass positions is to move through old Soviet pipes -not only in Kupyansk, but in many other places as well. For example, the Russians achieved a breakthrough in the battle for Avdiivka precisely thanks to this tactic. Since then, Ukrainians have adapted and become better prepared. Their artillery and drones destroy the exits from these pipes or wait for the Russians to come out and shower them with lead. However, Russians are also adapting. They began making new
holes inside old pipes, creating machine gun nests, barricades, and even makeshift quarters to live inside for months. This forced the Ukrainians to also enter the trenches and engage in close combat with the Russians. They are also using ground-based drones to combat Russian soldiers underground. The Ukrainian "Cartel" stated that Operation Valier aims to cut off Russian underground infiltration routes into the Kupyansk area, but the Russian army is still present there. In short, 2026 brought some balance to ground operations, as Ukraine deprived Russia of the full strategic initiative it had held since the end of Kyiv's failed summer counteroffensive of 2023. The Ukrainian military is trying to use the advantage in drones or
the shortage of manpower in Russia to conduct counter-offensive operations where possible. Russia still appears to have the initiative, attempting to attack on multiple fronts simultaneously with varying success, but its gains have slowed significantly. At this stage of the war, ground offensives remain crucial for gaining military advantage or improving negotiating positions, but they are becoming increasingly unlikely as a means of achieving strategic victory, at least with the current configuration of forces on the front. But a campaign to deplete the enemy's economy and morale through long-range strikes is another story. Both sides use long-range strikes for this purpose, albeit for different purposes.
Russia acts quite indiscriminately, often striking purely civilian targets such as shopping malls, residential buildings, and gas stations. In recent weeks, it has resumed its campaign of attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. On October 22, Zelensky reported that since October 11, Russia has struck 170 Ukrainian energy facilities. This is just the beginning of Russia's 2026 winter campaign. According to a New York Times report, Russia has developed a multi-stage plan to cause serious damage to Ukraine's power grid, heating, water supply, and sewage systems. The first stage involves the destruction of substations in western Ukraine that receive energy from European neighbors. The next step will be strikes on
hydroelectric power plants, pumping stations, and treatment plants. Finally, Russia allegedly intends to attack electrical distribution hubs connecting Ukraine's three nuclear power plants. The article claims that as part of the winter campaign of long-range strikes, Russia will focus on large cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa. The ultimate goal of this is to make them, like Ukraine as a whole, unfit for civilian life. And it's not just energy infrastructure. For example, in October we saw an increase in attacks on bridges in Ukraine. Both the northern and southern bridges in Kyiv across the Dnieper, which are critical for logistics and connectivity in the capital, were hit several times, temporarily halting public transport.
While it is not easy to completely destroy these bridges, significant damage could force authorities to close them due to the risk of collapse. This would be a nightmare for Ukraine, as vehicles would have to extend their routes by hundreds of kilometers, making logistics more expensive and slower. Ukrainian authorities are considering contingency plans, such as using ships or pontoon bridges to support transportation.
Russian attacks on Ukraine's logistics are not limited to bridges. On October 5, the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, Taras Vysotsky, stated that since the beginning of the war, Russia has damaged or destroyed more than 500 locomotives, depleting Ukraine's reserves Some of the recent destruction from long-range strikes has been caused by the latest jet drones. Ukraine's interception rate of these targets is about 57%-significantly lower than the success rate against conventional drones. New interceptor drones are currently being tested to combat jet drones. Spain, Belgium, and Poland have also transferred 20mm
shells for the guns of Ukrainian F-16s, which are being supplied specifically to counter these new drones. But it's not just jet drones. Ukrainian air defense continues to fight Russian ballistic missiles. According to Zelensky, Ukraine receives 12 Patriot interceptors per month from the United States as part of the Pearl initiative. This is not at all enough to counter the more than 100 ballistic missiles that Russia regularly fires at Ukraine every month. Even these deliveries have been delayed in recent months, making Ukraine more vulnerable to long-range Russian strikes.
Ukraine counters Russian strikes not only by shooting down drones and missiles, but also with regular attacks of its own. In October, Ukraine focused on Russia's digital infrastructure. They hit three data centers of Russia's largest digital corporation Yandex in Serov, Kaluga, and Vladimir, causing disruptions to the company's Internet services. The data centers of the Russian social network VK and the large bank Sberbank were also hit by Ukrainian drones. Several attacks on purely military targets were reported, such as the Borisoglebsk airfield on October 15, where six Su-34M fighter jets were damaged or destroyed Ukraine is also continuing its campaign against Russian oil infrastructure
, including strikes on oil refineries. However, this extremely successful and significant campaign is not received favorably by everyone. Many countries around the world, including the United States, are suffering from extremely high diesel prices . By the time this video is published, we will already know the results of the American midterm elections. However, at the time of writing, high gasoline prices have become a major issue in the US election campaign, hurting the Republican Party's chances. Without a doubt, Trump's war on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz are the main reasons for the rise in gasoline prices. But Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries have also limited Russia's export capabilities for fuel
and gasoline, adding to the problems. To deflect criticism ahead of the election over high prices and his war in Iran, Trump decided to blame everything on Ukraine. After months of relative absence from the news space regarding the war in Ukraine, on October 9, Donald Trump took a stunning step by announcing a deal with Russia that provided for the immediate delivery of over 300,000 tons of diesel to the United States, with larger volumes to follow. Make no mistake, the Trump administration has never been as helpful and friendly to Ukraine in terms of military aid and diplomatic support as the Biden administration before it, but this move goes far beyond that.
This is a significant departure from the sanctions regime that has been in place since the beginning of the war, although this decision is presented as a temporary lifting of sanctions. The deal was announced just as a Ukrainian delegation met with Trump envoys in Miami to discuss peace proposals and Ukraine's preparations for winter. Taken by surprise, Ukrainian negotiators left Miami immediately after the announcement. Following the announcement of the deal, Trump unleashed a cascade of personal attacks on Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing him of creating problems for the entire world, refusing to stop strikes on Russian oil facilities, and obstructing peace, while claiming that Putin was
supposedly committed to peace and diplomacy. Then the US president went even further, stating that it was time for Ukraine to elect a new leader. Zelensky, who had previously been very cautious and diplomatic in responding to Trump's criticism and personal attacks so as not to alienate Ukraine's most important ally, was more forthright in his statements this time. The Ukrainian president called the deal a weak decision by strong partners and a gift to Putin, admitting that he felt betrayed by Trump's decision, describing it as Trump choosing Putin's side. He warned that the diesel deal could be just the first step towards the suspension of US sanctions against Russia.
Zelensky also directly stated that this is an attempt to put pressure on Ukraine, since it is more difficult to put pressure on Putin and convince him to stop. The Ukrainian president proposes holding elections if Russia agrees to a 60- day ceasefire, which, of course, was rejected by Putin. Ukraine is also once again offering to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries in exchange for Russia stopping attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Of course, this was also rejected, despite Trump announcing an energy truce between the parties on October 11, without first securing agreement between Russia and Ukraine Although the Trump administration has significantly reduced support for Ukraine, the US still has several levers of influence over Kyiv.
First, the supply of Patriot interceptors. Reports are already pointing to delays in deliveries caused by US concerns about the situation in the Middle East and the dependence of many American allies on these interceptors. Second, intelligence sharing. This is a particularly important component of Ukraine's air defense strategy, as U.S. intelligence provides Ukraine with early warning of Russian ballistic missile attacks, giving Ukrainian air defense forces and civilians more time to prepare. Axios reported that Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner threatened Ukraine with the termination of intelligence support if Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries continued.
There were conflicting reports as to whether the Americans actually carried out these threats. The Ukrainians claimed they had not received intelligence warnings about Russian missile strikes on October 13, 14, and 19, which Trump, Marco Rubio, and other U.S. officials have strongly denied. On October 25, Zelenskyy announced that intelligence sharing had been fully restored. Third, there is the issue of Starlink, or more specifically Star Shield, which is the military and security version of the product developed by Elon Musk's SpaceX company. This is critically important for Ukraine's military communications, as is the work of
its anti-aircraft interceptors. After announcing the diesel deal and criticizing Zelensky, Elon Musk said that Ukraine needs a new leader because Zelensky has gone too far. A few days later, Ukrainian officials began reporting Star Shield speed restrictions as their high-speed platforms, such as interceptor drones, were losing contact. Both Trump and Musk denied responsibility for the decision, and it is still not entirely clear who made it, as SpaceX and the US government have shifted responsibility to each other. On October 24, Ukraine confirmed that the service's speed had been restored to previous levels. However, both conflicts undoubtedly left an unpleasant aftertaste. These two levers of influence
will hang over Ukraine like the sword of Damocles for the time being, due to the unpredictability of the Trump administration and the lack of viable alternatives. Ukraine is currently refraining from striking Russian oil refineries, as no new attacks were reported from October 16 to 27. But there is no guarantee that the Trump administration will not find another excuse to blame Ukraine for the war or again threaten to cut off intelligence or access to Starshield. Meanwhile, Putin may publicly declare his willingness to engage in diplomacy, but his consistent rejection of almost all proposals for a temporary or partial ceasefire shows that
nothing has changed since the beginning of the year-it's just empty words. Russia is reportedly planning to increase its military spending by a staggering 40% in 2027 compared to 2026, a clear indication that Putin wants to continue the war until Ukraine surrenders or accepts his demands. A telephone conversation took place between Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre with Putin to review the situation and understand Russia's position on its demands for an end to the war. There are also expectations for trilateral peace talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia, which are scheduled to take place in November. But all other indicators
point to the continuation of the war in Ukraine So, we are in the midst of another round of diplomatic process that will most likely lead to nothing. The battle for Donbas continues to rage amid another brutal Russian winter campaign of attacks on Ukraine's energy and civilian infrastructure. Negotiations, the battle for Donbas, the long-range strike campaigns of both sides, and their impact on the parties' ability to wage war are likely to remain the main topics of discussion in the information space regarding the war in Ukraine.
We'll end this video with a review of visually confirmed losses of equipment on both sides as of October 29, as reported by the Oryx blog. Russia lost at least 4,451 tanks, 10,920 vehicles, 323 command posts and communications stations, 2,512 artillery systems and equipment, 205 aircraft, and 185 helicopters. Ukraine lost at least 1,472 tanks, 7,169 vehicles, 104 command posts and communications stations, 1,474 artillery systems and equipment, 122 aircraft, and 59 helicopters. Further updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine are coming soon. If you don't want to miss them, make sure you subscribe and click the bell to see them. Please consider liking, subscribing, commenting, and sharing the video. This
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