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This video was created with the support of Kahlúa. They are a paid sponsor of this channel and you can get $25 by signing up for Kahlúa with the code "me Kevin". This is not Megan. Oh my god, JP Morgan is tactically set for growth, my goodness. Hello everyone, this is "me Kevin". Let's take a quick look at the news that has emerged in the last 24 hours since this crazy sale. I want to start with one of the most important things we've seen, and it's a real turning point. It's right here on Al Jazeera. This update came just a few minutes ago.
It says that Iran's foreign minister tells Al Jazeera that Tehran is studying the letter from J.D. Vance, and that talks are ongoing in Doha between mediators, the Qataris and others. And what the Iranians and the mediators are saying now -who knows, maybe it's just PR-but what it says is this: US officials have completely changed their tone. In other words, we have moved on from excuses and demands for our 50% share. What is our share? Our share is what I will say. to "Hey, can we make a deal?" Who knows, maybe this is fake news and we'll get the data soon, but this is exactly what's happening in Doha, and it sounds optimistic.
This also aligns with what JP Morgan is telling us. You see, JP Morgan has moved to tactical growth, and they say the fear and greed index is at extreme fear levels. However, despite the fact that we are in a state of extreme fear, they say that the economy is holding up. And this is exactly what we talked about on the channel: no, this is not an economic problem. This is some specific stuff and nonsense about Google "getting hit" because their search has sunk, and they deserve to fall. And Intel PC sales, which would seem to be on track to be successful amid the AI boom. Memory prices are so high that consumer PC sales
are falling, and then Intel is reporting weak results. You know, people just look at the headlines and say, "Oh my god, Intel is going down. This is terrible. "This probably means that we're, you know, over with the AI boom." This has nothing to do with the case. You see, the " impulse basket" suffered. The momentum dropped by 30%, significantly waned. Then, what happens, for example, with equilibrium indices? Well, institutions are looking for signs of cracks in the economy. And what do they see on the equilibrium index? Boom. Here it is. Here is RSP, the balanced S &P 500 index. What do we have? We are close to historic highs. In fact, all this time over the past 2 weeks we have seen fear in tech stocks and often heavily
leveraged positions. That's why there are still rumors that people have been eliminated in the last few days. In the end, this is what you get. You see how credit funds in the AI sector are being liquidated, giving you the opportunity to buy cheaper. What is happening here? Here we have the broader stock market heading for new all-time highs, and no one is paying attention to it because it's not the headline news from the quarterly reports. The VIX is now at its highest level since the start of the Iranian tensions.
Now the skew has also increased along with the sell-off. The increase in skew during a sell-off means that people are panic-buying the hedge rather than closing it. So, I think we saw signs that hedge funds were buying five times as many short positions: for every dollar of long positions, they were buying one short. This is quite possible. That's the distortion, right? I'm simplifying a bit, but this could be a sign: "Like this. We haven't purchased enough protection to survive while these over-leveraged clowns and cowardly players are being driven out of the market." So JP Morgan comes in and says, "Hey
guys, look. GDP for the 3rd quarter is 3.4%. Preliminary PMIs show 5% real growth for the second month in a row. Remember, at the beginning of the month, the ISM and S&P indices we analyzed made us say, "Oh my God." "You look at.Or just read the earnings report if you're worried about SK Hynix. Oh my God. I mean, we were breaking it down here, but it was great material. Oh my God, and I didn't choose him because he looked cool." Then they go on and say that their forecast is that revenues will increase, revenue will increase by 13%. Earnings per share will increase by 30%, the margin is approaching 15%, which is a
high figure. The trend is general. Trend growth plus.sorry, sorry. Let me clarify. The margin is growing and approaching 15%. Let me clarify, okay? Trend growth plus earnings growth-that's a "bull" market, that's what they say, get it? So, more profits, and the economy as a whole is doing well. We know that not every single person, okay? We know that AI will destroy jobs, and there will be a lot of people who will be terribly angry. And human pricing power, pricing power for people, will decrease. You and I know this. If you're not studying artificial intelligence every day to make yourself a better person, that's your homework every
damn day. Okay, do you want some free homework too? Literally free, okay? This is not sponsorship. It's just me saying, "Go to meetkevin.com/digest and get a free daily digest." It's free. Enter your email. Be sure to check if it's spam when you receive confirmation. Check the box and you will receive the daily digest for free. And I also add target prices there. Be that as it may, over the past month, according to JP Morgan, eight out of 11 sectors have grown. Energy, essential goods, utilities, healthcare, finance-they are leading. This is not the stock market that is collapsing.
This is a stock market where short positions on the Nasdaq 100 are at their highest level since 2023 because people are acting like cowards. These are little cowards who don't like being "got" during a market storm because they took too much risk with leverage. Either way, retail investors have invested record amounts in leveraged ETFs This is both good and bad. That's good because it means retail investors are optimistic, but it's also bad because you know they'll have to sell everything if they're too leveraged.
I'll tell you personally, in my career I was too dependent on margins and " [__]" without diapers, and there's nothing I regret more. Now I don't care because I have no debts. So when I buy a stock and it goes down, I know it's short-term volatility because our fundamental analysis is a 10 out of 10. And on our bear-bull scale, we're a nine out of 10. Anyway, JP Morgan admits that right now, what's the determining factor? Iran They are directly saying that if there are strikes, oil prices will skyrocket. If negotiations begin that lead to something, or even a hope for an
agreement appears, we will fly up, baby. So, JP Morgan claims that this is the best opportunity because this is the worst month for the technology sector. And I hate to agree with JP Morgan because I ca n't stand them. I consider them a terrible bank. I think you should use my channel sponsor affiliate link and go to meetkevin.com/bank, because if you open a business account, you'll not only get $250 cash, but you'll also get something new, oh my god, it's so cool. AI-powered accounting and payroll features, some of the best technology, and two-factor authentication for different accounts-it's kind of a gimmick, spoiler between us, you should think about it, okay? For everyday accounts, you can use synced
access keys with Face ID, Touch ID, and other convenient things, that's fine. And for that final account, where you have to confirm: "Yes, I authorize this transfer for 20, 30, 100 thousand or however much you are transferring," - log in only using the hardware key. Nothing is connected to the Internet. You go offline when you finish work. Sorry, I'm a little concerned about cybersecurity. But we need to protect our people, because people are our most important asset. However. Sellers who had to sell, according to JP Morgan estimates, have already mostly sold, and the market is holding-remember, there was a period when everyone was talking about the " bad breath" of the market. Yes, okay. So, the mood is gloomy. But, according to JP
Morgan, it's also the best seasonal window before the midterm elections to buy. Of course, if we go back to strikes, that's where TS Lombard comes in and says, "Oh yeah, this is going to be bad." But before talking about the bad, it's worth paying attention to pharmaceuticals. The forward P/E ratio just caught up with the S&P 500. We've been buying Eli Lilly and Moderna for the last, like, three or four months, right? I don't know if it's that long, but it's roughly in that range. Big fans. Healthcare is now the second best sector of the year after this rapid growth. This really helped offset some of the hardware damage. But that's okay. This is why you need a balanced portfolio. Well, in any case, there is something to keep an eye on.
TS Lombard warns: if war resumes after the midterm elections, this is already largely priced in. However, they say that 1970s-style tail risk is not taken into account. And this is where we may start having real problems with oil, the price of which could jump above $140 per barrel. Not very well. But Goldman Sachs points to Calshi's chances regarding the results of the midterm elections. They say there is about a 65% chance of a complete victory for the Democrats. Let's move on to our favorite channel sponsor, Calshi, and take a look at them. We love all our sponsors. I don't know why I said that. I guess I just like looking at their charts. I think they do a great job of making these graphs. So no offense to other
sponsors. But anyway, what do we have here? Currently, control of the Senate is 92%, and control of the House is 94%, both safe for Democrats. So, you know, overall it looks like a landslide victory for the Democrats. And maybe that's why we suddenly see Republicans like, "Holy [__], we're going to get blown up right now. We really need an Iran deal." And suddenly their rhetoric changes, and they point to DJ, saying, "Oh, well, DJ is a hero. He'll come and fix everything." Which could also be a strategic move. Oh, DJ Vance was the guy who was able to make a deal with Iran. Hmm.
What does this prepare us for in 2028? I think I understand what you're getting at. You're hinting that someone might want to arrange a third term like Putin's, using someone.Oh my god. For example, Dmitry Medvedev, so that he would be a front person and pretend to be in charge of the process. A. That would be crazy. If you liked this video, check out this one. I think you'll be delighted. Why not advertise the things you told us about here? I don't think anyone else knows about this. We'll try some advertising and see how it goes.
Congratulations, dude. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you Kevin Pafrat, financial analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. It's always nice to hear your opinion.
