Why Rising Treasury Yields Could Trigger a Repeat of the 2008 Financial Crisis

Why Rising Treasury Yields Could Trigger a Repeat of the 2008 Financial Crisis

The 30-year Treasury yield has hit 5% for the first time since 2007, signaling potential economic trouble. The U.S. government borrowed heavily at short-term low rates during the pandemic, but now faces massive refinancing at higher rates, similar to adjustable-rate mortgages before the 2008 crisis. This could lead to higher costs, inflation, and a recession, impacting stocks and personal finances.

America Just Repeated The Mistake That Crashed Economy In 2008. | Transcript:

Something just broke in the bond market and most people are not paying attention. Let me explain. The 30-year Treasury yield just broke 5% for the first time since 2007, right before the Great Financial Crisis started. This has a direct impact on the economy, the stock market, and your paycheck. But most people have no idea what a Treasury is, let alone how it actually impacts the broader economy. And that's why in this video, even if you don't know what a Treasury is, I'm going to break down what's going on, but more importantly, what might be coming. That way, not only you can protect your money, but also find the opportunity because this change can create the opportunity for you to

grow your wealth even faster. So, let me break it all down. Imagine for a second that you have a $500,000 mortgage at a 2% interest rate. So, your monthly payments to your bank are around $1,850 a month. Well, your bank calls you up one day and they say, "Hey, we need to readjust your mortgage. You're no longer going to be paying this 2%. Now, we're going to charge you 5% and now overnight, your mortgage payments go from $1,850 a month all the way up to about $2,700 a month. That seems a little crazy. Well, this is exactly what's happening to the United States government right now in the Treasury market. The way the United States government works is they go out and they collect tax dollars from

people like you and me and then the government will go out and spend this money in our economy. They spend this money on things like Social Security, Medicare, and our military, and then the infrastructure for the country. The problem is that the government spends way more money than what they generate from taxes. This is not a 2026 thing, this is something that's been happening for decades. And so, to make up for all of this additional spending, the government has to go out and borrow this money in the form of debt. Well, during the 2020 pandemic, it's becoming apparent that the government made a big mistake in the way that they were borrowing money. When the United States

government borrows money, this is called a treasury. And you can lend money to the United States government yourself. And in exchange for lending money to the government, they're going to pay you back your money plus interest over a period of time. Now, sometimes these loans that the government will issue are short-term loans. Things like a few weeks long, 1 year long, 2 year long, 5 year long. Sometimes they're longer-term loans, 10 year loans or 30 year loans. Well, this is where the government made a very costly decision. But to really understand what they did, let's ignore the government for a second and go back to you buying a house. If you go out and get a mortgage for a house, generally

you're going to get a much lower interest rate mortgage when you get a 15 year mortgage versus a 30 year mortgage because with a 15 year mortgage, the bank gets the money back faster. So, they charge you a lower rate of interest. Well, it works the same with treasuries. When the government borrows money for 1 year, they're going to pay a lower rate of interest than when they borrow that money for 30 years. So, let's go back in time, back to the year 2020 and 2021. Remember, that was when we had the lowest interest rates in the history of time. And now the United States government was deciding what type of loans they wanted to issue, short-term loans or long-term loans. And this is what their options were. By the

way, do want to mention that because of all these changes happening with the government and the changes in our economy and the changes with AI and technology, I'm hosting a live, free, and virtual investor workshop on June 16th at 12:00 p.m. noon Eastern Time. This is going to be a free workshop where I go over not just how you can get started as an investor and find better investment opportunities, but also my firm's research as to where we're seeing some of the biggest opportunities right now. Because money is moving fast, and the people that can get ahead of this will be able to grow their wealth even faster. So, if you're an investor or want to be an investor and you want to see how you can capitalize on the

changing economy, how you can capitalize on what's happening with the government, how you can capitalize on what's going on with changes with AI and technology, I invite you to join me on this live, free, and virtual investor workshop on June 16th. Again, it's live. I'm doing it at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time. So, if you'd like to join me, all you have to do is register, and I have the link for you down in the description below. And when you register for the workshop, you're also going to get access to Market Briefs, which is my newsletter for investors, completely free. So, if you have not signed up for my workshop yet, again, I have that link for you down in the description. So, it's the year 2020 and 2021, and the United

States government is borrowing more money than ever before. Part of the reason why the government is borrowing so much money is because they're funding stimulus checks, they're funding unemployment checks, they're funding these PPP loans, they're bailing out businesses. I mean, the government is borrowing more amount of money than really most people can imagine. And this is where the government had to make a decision. Did they want to lock in a 30-year fixed-rate loan, meaning the government would be paying out this amount of interest rate for the next 30 years locked in at something like around 2% a year. Now, I'm estimating here because the interest rates did change between 2020 and 2021, but around 2% a year.

Or did the government want to get a little bit more aggressive? We can lock in a 10-year fixed-rate loan for something like 1.5% a year, which also was some of the lowest 10-year loans in the history of time. So, the government could save some money by getting a 10-year loan, but it's not going to be locked in for 30 years. It'll only be locked in for about 10 years. [snorts] Or did we want to get even more aggressive and maybe get a 5-year loan or a shorter-term loan and now only pay something like a 1% [clears throat] interest rate, but it's not going to be locked in for 10 years or 30 years.

It'll only be locked in for about 5 years, kind of like an adjustable-rate mortgage, where now your mortgage rate is not locked in for 30 years. This was the dilemma that the government was facing back in the year 2020 and 2021. And during the time when interest rates were so low, the government was borrowing money like crazy to fund PPP loans and unemployment checks and stimulus checks and everything in between and the government said, "You know what? Instead of locking it in for 30 years at 2% a year, how about we just do these five-year loans. We're going to do more of these five-year loans at this very cheap interest rate because we'll get to save more money on our interest payments today." Well, here we are now,

five years later, and now this government debt is starting to readjust at a much higher interest rate. Now, for those of you that were watching my videos in 2020 and 2021, we were talking about what would happen once the government debt starts to readjust in the coming years. Well, here we are today, and now many people are starting to call it the biggest blunder in the history of the United States Treasury. We had the ability to lock in our interest rates for decades at some of the lowest interest rates in the history of time. Instead, we decided to do these short-term loans to make the most money in the short-term having the short-sided

mindset, and now, well, things are about to change. In 2024, about $7 trillion of government debt readjusted at higher interest rates. In 2025, it was about $9.2 trillion that readjusted from this era to the higher interest rates in 2025, and now in 2026, it's estimated that about $9.7 trillion is going to readjust at the higher interest rates today. Well, the real issue in 2026 that wasn't there in 2025 or 2024 is that the interest rates that the government has to pay today are even higher than where we were last year. I know I keep going back to the housing market example, but the people that were buying houses in the early and mid-2000s, they also didn't know what was going to happen to interest rates.

So, your mortgage banker said, "Hey, interest rates are probably going to come down, and when they come down, you can just refinance your mortgage at a lower rate, and things will be fine, and you'll be able to save money on your mortgage." Well, that didn't happen. Mortgage rates went up, not down, and that's what caused the housing market to collapse come 2008. Well, here we are today in 2026, and leading up to 2026, everybody kept thinking that interest rates are going to fall, that the Federal Reserve Bank is going to cut interest rates aggressively, but then a lot of things changed in the economy. Oil prices

skyrocketed. We entered a new war in the Middle East, and now interest rates are the highest that we have seen since 2007, right before the housing market collapsed in 2008. The other part of the problem is that the previous people that would lend money to the United States government aren't lending money to the United States government the way that they did before. For example, China is one of the largest owners of United States debt, and they have turned from a net buyer of United States debt now to a seller of United States debt. We also have many other countries around the world that aren't buying as much United States debt because now they want to buy gold because they're worried about the

United States dollar, they're worried about inflation. So, the way that the United States government can borrow this money is starting to change. And if the government cannot borrow this money from people like you and me, they can't borrow this money from foreign countries like China and Japan and the United Kingdom, then the third option is the United States government will either have to find a alternative solution. I'll talk more about that in the coming days. Or the United States government is going to have to work to get that money printed through the Federal Reserve Bank. Remember, the Federal Reserve Bank is the central bank here in the United

States, but they're not a bank because you and I can't go there to deposit money. They're not a reserve because they're not sitting on any cash reserves, and they're not federal. It says so on their website. But they have the ability to print money and lend it to the United States government. So, if the government keeps spending money that they don't have, which looks like it's going to continue happening, and they have to continue refinancing their debt, they're going to continue needing more lenders. They're going to continue needing more buyers of this debt. And if there's not the same demand as before, that's where the Federal Reserve Bank has to step up. They have to print the money, and then lend it to the United

States government. The problem with that money printing is of course money printing comes with more inflation because you can't print more wealth, you can print more dollars though. And as you print more dollars the value of each dollar starts to go down causing the prices of things to go up. Now couple of that with the higher oil prices, couple that with already the high inflation that we're seeing today in 2026 and you can start to see the problem. But there's one more part to this that you want to pay attention to. Do you want to know what the fastest growing expense for the United States government is?

It's not our military, it's not Medicare or Medicaid and it's not Social Security. It's interest payments on all of our debt. Why are interest payments? Well, two reasons. Number one, the government keeps spending trillions of dollars that we don't have so we keep increasing how much debt we have to have, but also number two, because as we refinance this debt, as our debt comes due, this debt is now being readjusted at these lower interest rates to now some the highest Treasury rates that we have seen in about two decades. Now let me explain why that matters because right now at the time we're recording

this video already every time you give a dollar to the United States government in taxes, 20% of that, about 20 cents of that dollar is going just to pay interest on the previous debt. It's not going to pay for your health insurance, it's not going to pay for any infrastructure, it's not going to actually provide value for you, it's just going to pay off the previous debt. As interest costs start to go up even more, that puts more financial strain on the United States government that more and more of our tax dollars have to be used not to actually provide value to its citizens, but to be used to pay back the previous debt plus interest. That's the problem that the government is facing. We keep spending money that we don't have

and now we also have higher debt costs and as our debt costs also go up, now the government gets into a tougher situation. Are we going to raise taxes, which it doesn't look like we're going to do because President Trump just signed the biggest tax cut bill that we've seen in the last 300 years. Are we going to cut spending? Well, people don't like the idea of cutting spending on Social Security, or cutting spending on Medicare, or cutting spending on our military. So, if we're not going to cut spending and we're not going to raise taxes, what's the alternative? Well, we can print that money, but now we have an inflation problem. And this is where a lot of people don't understand how this inflation works, but

the inflation makes the average person poorer, while the investor becomes richer. That's why you have to understand how this system works, because this is happening right now. And most people don't know the implications of these higher interest rates, but these higher interest rates have a direct impact on our economy. They have a direct impact on the stock market, but they also have a direct impact on your paycheck, because it changes the value of your paycheck. As inflation happens, your paycheck buys you less stuff. Your savings buy you less stuff. And that's why it's so important for you to understand this, because most people don't start paying attention until after the fact, after

they start feeling the impacts of this on their wallet, after they start seeing the impact of this on the stock market, after they start seeing the impact in the job market and the economy. Well, [snorts] this is where I want you to get a little bit more proactive and understand that, "Hey, there are changes happening." I'm not saying be worried about a recession or a market crash. Those things are always on the horizon. It doesn't matter when we're talking, they're always on the horizon. I want you to understand that the way you become wealthy in this system is by becoming an investor, but it's just become exponentially more important.

Why? Because all of this is going to lead to more printing. More printing means more inflation. More inflation means investor become wealthier, the average person becomes poorer. Now, it doesn't mean we're not going to see a market downturn. It doesn't mean we're not going to see a market crash. Those things are very possible, but they create even better and bigger buying opportunities to invest your money, but you have to be in a position to invest your money. This is what you have to understand. We're going to see a bigger divide between the rich and the poor. Because as you print more money, inflation means that the average person's paycheck now buys less stuff, and the prices of things go up. Now, you

might say, "Well, desperate, don't people's paychecks go up with inflation?" Yes, they do. But what we've seen, not just over the last 5 years, but over the last 50 years, is that paychecks haven't gone up fast enough to keep up with the prices of things. So, if you want to win in this system, it has just become exponentially more important for you to become an investor. Why? Because the government debt is going to get even more expensive. And unless we see a drastic change in interest rates tomorrow, which sure, is it possible? Anything is possible. But based off of what we know today, at the time we're recording this video, as this debt starts to mature and it readjusts, government expenses are going to go up.

As government expenses go up, they're going to need more money to continue spending all of the things that they want to spend money on. And if they don't have the money to do that, that means more printing is going to happen. As more printing happens, that leads to more inflation in the economy. That's what you want to understand because that inflation makes some people richer, but it makes everybody else poorer. Again, that's why I'm hosting my workshop on June 16th. It's live at noon. If you haven't registered, please do so because we have a limited number of people that can actually join me live, but I want to show you our research as to how you can actually capitalize on these changes

that are happening. So, [snorts] what we talked about in this video is that we are seeing changes happen in the United States government in a way that we haven't seen in about two decades. What do I mean? Treasury yields have hit the highest levels that we have seen in about two decades. 2007, right before the Great Financial Crisis. And the reason why that is so important for you to understand right now is because what happened during the pandemic. During the pandemic era, 2020, 2021, interest rates were at their lowest rates in the history of time. At the same time, the government was borrowing more money than ever before.

Why was the government borrowing so much money? Because they were spending so much money into the economy. They were spending stimulus checks, unemployment checks, PPP loans, bailouts, grants. I mean, the government was just throwing money left and right. And when the government was going out and borrowing this money, they had to make a decision, what type of loans were they going to do? Were they going to lock in these loans at a 30-year rate at about 2%? Or were they going to lock in the loans at a 10-year rate at around 1 and 1/2%? Or were they lock in the rate for just a few years at around 1%? Well, what we saw happen was that the government got a little greedy in 2020, 2021, and they said, "You know what?

Interest rates are probably going to fall back down by 2026. So, how about we save more money today because we're borrowing so much money, and we just do these short-term loans." So, we saw a huge surge in short-term loans for the United States government, which is not a normal thing for the government to do. Normally, they do these long-term loans, but during the pandemic, we decided to change our economic policy, and we shifted to these short-term loans. Well, here we are today in 2026, and now these short-term loans are coming due. More specifically, about 9.7 trillion dollars worth of these loans are coming due, and they're going to readjust at a higher interest rate. But not just a higher

interest rate, it's some of the highest interest rates that we have seen in about two decades. Why does that matter? Because the government has one source of revenue, tax dollars from taxpayers. And already as of today, before this readjustment happened in 2026, the fastest-growing expense for the government is interest. 20 cents of every dollar that you pay in taxes is going directly in interest payments. Well, now as the government is going to have to pay more in interest payments, not just because they're borrowing more dollars, but also because the cost of borrowing is going up, that means that it's very likely that more of your tax dollars are going to be

used just in interest payments, not to actually provide you a service. And this is where the government has an option. If now more of our dollars are being used to fund the interest payments, are we going to raise taxes or are we going to cut expenses? Well, it doesn't look like the government's going to raise taxes because we just passed the biggest tax cut bill in the history of time. And it doesn't look like we're going to cut expenses because nobody wants to see social security cut or Medicare cut or military expenses cut. Which means that the government's going to have to go out and borrow this money. Well, normally that would be fine except the normal lenders to the government are not there the way they were before.

China has turned to a net seller of United States debt. Japan doesn't have the ability to borrow as much debt from the United States government. Regular people are saying, you know what, I don't want to lend as much money to the United States government because I'm concerned about inflation. And we're seeing more and more entities turn to gold rather than United States Treasuries. This is where the government is turning to alternative sources. Now, I'm going to talk more about what that means in a coming video because it's a completely different topic. It has to do with cryptocurrency. I don't want to confuse this video, but just note that I have a complete deep dive coming on that

soon because the government is already starting to address this problem. But the other part to that is that means we're going to see more money printing. More money printing by the Federal Reserve Bank means more inflation. means more divide between the rich and the poor. More inflation means asset prices go up. well, if you don't understand how inflation works, you're the one that's paying the price. That means that the average person's paycheck buys less stuff. The average person's savings buy less stuff. And the people that understand how this works become even wealthier. That's why you want to understand how this works.

Again, I have a workshop on June 16th, but that's why you want to understand this. That way you can capitalize on what's happening instead of being blindsided on what's happening. If you got value out of this video, the best thank you is a referral. So, if you could, please share this video with a friend, family member, colleague, or fellow investor. That way, we can continue to spread this type of financial education. Thank you. 1 year ago, President Trump signed the biggest tax cut bill in the history of America, and now your taxes are going to change in 2026. Take a listen. We have officially made the Trump tax cuts permanent. That's the largest tax cut in the history of our country, and it's due to save trillions

More Business Transcript