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Russia is developing its own Starlink analogue. It is still in its early stages. They launched, it seems, several dozen satellites. It is not working properly yet. But, you know, we keep hearing that within a few months, maybe a year, they'll have some kind of functional equivalent of Starlink. This will radically change the situation in favor of the enemy for Ukraine, as the Russians will be able to fully track and hit any targets on Ukrainian territory, just as Starlink provides such capabilities to Ukrainians . On the other hand, if the Ukrainians could use Starlink over Russian territory to strike missile launchers, they could, as Alex said, be hitting the archer, not the arrow. But, unfortunately, Elon Musk refuses to allow this. So the question is whether
other pressure can be exerted on Musk and Starlink to allow such use. And, you know, I think there's a pretty strong argument, which is that Russia is hitting civilians with ballistic missiles very openly and increasingly often. And for me, Ed, that's the big picture of what's happening. This is a race of ever- faster innovation on both sides. Yes, exactly about this moment. Viewers may not know, but about 2 weeks ago, a drone queen with FPV drones was first spotted in Kyiv. A drone-queen is essentially a large drone that carries many smaller drones, which are much more difficult for air defense systems to shoot down. It was a Shahed drone flying to Kyiv, and the idea was to release them. This was an experimental version. But Russia usually shows it first, and after
3-6 months we see it in massive quantities. Whether with fiber optics or jet drones, their ability to often adopt Ukrainian technology and find the perfect balance in modern warfare-it's a very cheap weapon that's hard to intercept. They do this all the time, and it's a kind of disturbing harbinger of what may await Kyiv in the near future. This is a serious terrorist tactic, and there is now a rather unpleasant slang term being spread, " safari tactics," where Russians use FPV drones near the front line, especially in cities near the front, and footage shows them hunting civilian cars, etc. And this brings us back to what we were talking about earlier about friction.
What parent would leave their child in a city where FPV drones, you know, are organizing "safaris" on the streets of the capital? Alex, does Ukraine have the ability to put pressure on Russia by changing the conditions on the front line This is an area in which we can certainly feel more confident. They are very skillful in their defense, although yes, over the years it has only been about tens of kilometers. I think the net gain this year is 100 square kilometers. I understand that this is actually. In a country of this size.
Yes, it's equivalent to the area of Paris within the ring road, I checked the other day. So, it's nothing. In fact, many observers-well, some observers- now suggest that the Ukrainians are seizing the initiative and developing tactics that allow them to seize at least small swaths of territory. But this is not so much a dead end as, one might say, a dynamic equilibrium. It is worth emphasizing once again the price Russia is paying for this very, very minimal gain Russia's losses are currently estimated at 40,000 people per month. It is worth remembering that this is more in one month than the Soviet Union lost in 10 years in
Afghanistan. Yes, and I have seen data that the losses during the entire war exceed, for example, the losses of the United States in World War II. So this is a colossal mortality rate, but the question, Ollie, is whether this changes the overall conditions of the war. I don't think so, because we've seen it more than once: if Putin can force people to serve, actually send them to the front to fight, often with worse equipment and, you know, essentially on a one-way ticket. He finds them, and even now, although the recruitment, of course, lags behind the number of killed and wounded. He's still finding them, and I don't think that's going to change anytime soon. We talked about mobilization, and it is clearly being prepared.
He doesn't have to do it openly. He can do it secretly. Russia still has many resources. There are significantly more resources, and, as we said last time on the program, in terms of a war of attrition, Putin believes he is winning. And I think, I think the message coming out of Kyiv right now is that Putin feels pretty confident, especially in the area of jet drones and ballistic missiles, and he's able to, you know, realize that advantage in people, technology, and money-the three components of war. Thank you, Ollie. Now, Zanni, even if that's the case, it doesn't mean that one side is about to be defeated, because there's another initiative going on here- another attempt to reach some kind of peace agreement. And on the day you arrived in Kyiv, I think
Kushner and Witkoff were just leaving. What were the talks about whether there would be any peace agreement at all? I saw Trump tweeting on social media last night about some kind of energy truce that no one really knows about. What do they say about it? So, I think the honest assessment of most people in Kyiv was that no one took it too seriously. I think they were happy that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner came to Kyiv for the first time. But no one thought this was "peace for our time." Nevertheless, I suspect I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were more talk of peace talks in the coming weeks. After the Russian State Duma elections and before the midterm elections, it would be beneficial for Donald Trump, President Trump, to
say, "You know, I'm doing this, there is progress." There may even be talk-and I 've heard reports of it -of some kind of mutual energy truce. We will stop striking Remember, President Trump desperately wants the Ukrainians to stop attacking oil refineries, especially diesel refineries. But I really don't think, after a week in Ukraine, that we'll see anything significant or serious before the end of winter. It seems to me, given everything we've said, that Vladimir Putin believes he can inflict that much pain on Ukraine over the winter. Why would he want to stop it now? So I don't see anything in the short term.
