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Everything's bigger in Texas and this midterm year that includes Democratic dreams of finally turning the Lonear State blue. I am not running to be the governor for the Democrats. I'm running to be the governor for the people of Texas. We are going to keep Texas red. Welcome to Here's the Scoop election Edition. I'm Garrett Hake. Every Saturday from now until the midterms, I'm going to be talking with the smartest voices to discuss the top issues, the places, and the players that could ultimately decide control in
Washington. Last week, we had an in-depth conversation about the rapidly changing politics around Israel inside the Democratic Party. And this week, we're back to domestic politics, taking our show on the road to Austin, Texas. For decades now, this state has been the deep red heart of the Republican party. It's the home of the Bushes and Ted Cruz, of multi-term governors Rick Perry and Greg Abbott. In the House, Texans routinely make up the largest GOP delegation by far. In fact, it's been more than 30 years since a Democrat has won a statewide race here. Well, Texas is uh the white whale of Democrats, um at least for recent history. Today, we're asking, could this time be different, or are the polls showing Democrats within striking
distance in the Senate and governor's races just another mirage that'll all melt away come November? Right now, most polls show Democrat James Talerico, a state rep from the Austin area, beating Republican Ken Paxton, the attorney general, by a handful of points in the Senate race. Terrio is a progressive, but he told me he's also trying to leave an open door for Trump voters or for supporters of John Cornin, the incumbent Republican ousted by Paxton. How do you convince people who voted for President Trump or who maybe never voted for a Democrat in their life to vote for you when you're opposing him on almost every issue?
Not every issue. I actually look forward to working with President Trump after we win this seat to lower costs for Texans. uh whether it's on housing or prescription drugs, there are lots of areas where President Trump and I actually agree. And you think there's room for that in this political climate? I that is my prayer. Terrio has been a prolific fundraiser and Democrats here and nationally are excited about him. But there is a history here of Democrats rallying around an exciting star in October only to have their hopes dashed in November. Today, I'm going to talk to the Texas Tribune's editor-inchief, Matthew Watkins, about how those candidates and races compare and about how Texas itself is changing demographically and politically and if
that's making races here more competitive. But the Senate is not the only competitive statewide race here. Under a much less glaring spotlight, Democrat Gina Hinosa has been running a tight race with Republican Governor Greg Abbott, who's seeking a fourth term. Hinosa started this race as a virtual unknown outside of her home district near Austin and she is definitely still the underdog. But despite getting outspent by Abbott 10 to one according to the Houston Chronicle, she remains inside the margin of error in most polls. Her message is progressive and it's populist. that focuses on helping the middle class get ahead and outlawing data centers, but also on asking voters
to set aside culture war issues. Is that message working to win over more conservative Texans? Welcome back to Here's the Scoop Election Edition. I'm Garrett Hake and this week we're in my home state of Texas, which hasn't had a Democratic governor since Anne Richards left office back in 1995. For perspective, that's the year the Macarena went viral. Sorry if that's now stuck in your head. This year, State Rep. Gina Hinosa hopes to change that. She's a mom and a lawyer originally from the Rio Grand Valley who started her career running for school board, then landed a state house seat. Hinosa started this race as a virtual unknown outside of deep blue Travis County. And it's not just any race.
She's going up against a perceived juggernaut in Governor Greg Abbott, who's seeking a fourth term and who's backed by an enormous war chest. Last year, a lot of political analysts were writing this race off. They saw it as an easy layup for the GOP. [snorts] But as we approach this sprint to November, even some Republican operatives I talked to say this race is real. I'm grateful Gina Hinosa could take some time out of her campaign schedule to join me today here in Austin. Gina, thank you for being here. It's great to be with you. So, there wasn't exactly a stampede of Democrats getting into this race when you decided to challenge Governor Abbott. Why did you want to get into
this race? Why did you think this was a winnable race? Because I know how much harm Greg Abbott has done to Texas public schools. Texas public schools are part of our identity as Texans. They're enshrined in our Texas Constitution as being essential to our liberties. And over the years, I have worked very closely with even Republicans. Rural Republicans are some of my best allies to defend our public schools. And Greg Abbott has done more damage than anyone. And so I knew there was a lot of anger. I knew there was a lot of coming together over issues that were impacting our everyday lives and I knew we had to try and that is why I decided to run reach for that brass ring which is the governor's mansion to win.
If education was the issue that got you in I feel like the issue that put you on the map nationally was data centers. You talked about a moratorium on data centers. Now Greg Abbott has taken what was essentially your position. How has that issue shaped this race? And does him changing his stance take the wind out of your sales on it? Does it show that you were on to something before other people? How do you consider that issue? My position and Greg Abbott's position is actually night and day. I have called on him to call a special session of the legislature, which he's done many times before for all sorts of other reasons, right, to pass laws to protect Texans against
data centers. He refuses to do it. And that is the difference. I think we need to pass laws. We need to have moratorum until we pass laws to protect Texans. That's the way we do things, right? We pass laws. That's the only way there's real protection. And his mortorium is till this audit is done. It's it's mere words. It's his commitment and nobody trusts him. Do you think it's just a campaign tactic? Yes. It is an effort to protect his reelection chances, not the people of Texas. How do you walk the line on the tech industry? It's been a huge part of Texas's economy. It's like 20% of Texas economy. You talk about Abbott having
given the keys to the state to Elon Musk. But te Tesla's a big business here. SpaceX is a big business here. How do you find a middle ground of supporting those industries while also protecting against the kind of abuses that you've talked about? We can have economic development and protections for Texans. We used to have that. It's the way this country, this state used to work, right? We support business so long as they are good for Texans, not in spite of the harm they do to Texans. That's not um the way that government should work. So, what's meaningfully the difference in how you would approach regulating those industries than what we're seeing right now?
Well, let's talk about data centers. You brought up data centers. There are no protection. So, Greg Abbott invited them into Texas with the most generous tax break in the country. They're owned by the richest men in the world. First of all, I would say they should pay for themselves. He signed that 20year tax break into law. I would have never. You and James Telerico are both from basically the bluest part of Texas representing areas around Travis County. You've called for a truce on culture war issues. How much you think culture war issues, as you describe them, have limited Democrats success in this state before? How do you convince people from the other 253 counties in Texas that
you're not out of step with what I think people traditionally think of as kind of Texas values? I had been hearing out there, all Democrats do is want to focus on the culture wars. And I didn't understand that because I knew that was not our agenda until I realized that what is happening is that we are being baited into culture wars to distract from the economic struggles people are experiencing in Texas which are stark. Um I'm from the real Grand Valley originally and when I am there what I am hearing from people is not a concern about culture wars. I hear from people a concern about the fact that the cost of gas is too high, the cost of groceries
are too high. um that they can't build anymore because these ICE raids that are terrorizing the community where there is racial profiling happening where even two young men on their way to enlist in the Marines, Americans were taken from their car and beaten by ICE just a couple of weeks ago, people aren't showing up for work. People are scared, right? So, it is these kitchen table issues that I'm hearing about. Um, it used to be that Texas was a place where if you worked hard, you could have a good life and you could be prosperous. And people don't feel that anymore. People don't feel the American dream is within reach. Too many working Texans, especially young Texans. And that is what this agenda is about. It is
delivering for Texans because there is anger at both parties in 2026. People are angry at republic at the Republican party and the Democratic party. It creates a space for people to look at the candidate to see is this candidate going to deliver for me? Is this candidate going to work for me? And that is a space I think that is almost a post-partisan space that we are entering into that I am really hearing about in Texas where people just want a leader, a governor who will work for them. Do you think you need to separate yourself from the Democratic brand to win statewide in Texas? I can't tell you what the Democratic brand is right now.
Is that a problem? Well, not for me because I have my brand. It is my record being in the Texas House. It is the credibility and the trust I have built on public schools. It is the credibility and trust I have built by not going along to get along in the Texas House. I'm one of the few, Democrat or Republican, who voted against the speaker, the budget, and the um corporate welfare bill that was before the Texas House. Right. That's what sets me apart is that I am not going along with this kind of corporatist agenda that has been the work of the of Greg Abbott and our current leadership in Texas. Why do you think Democrats have been shut out in statewide races in Texas for so long?
Well, I don't know. I will tell you that this election cycle because it is Trump in the White House and the midterm election is very similar to 2018. Last time we had Trump in the White House in a midterm election and Democrats swept in 2018, but they still couldn't win the Senate seat, but they came and Beto came so close as you know. Listen, we didn't have a ticket then. We didn't he Beto will say he believes had he had a strong candidate running for governor that he could have he would have won. And we had a great candidate. She did not um get the momentum that she needed. Right. We have a ticket this time. It's me. It is James Telerico. It is Democrats filed in every House seat, Senate seat, and
congressional seat for the first time in 50 years. Is that right? Yeah, it is. And so, like, the result is that we're already seeing more Democrats turned out in the primary than Republicans. That never happens in Texas. We had I got twice as many votes in my primary as Bethto got in 2018. And I had seven opponents, right? And even still, because Democrats are working it in every corner of this state to turn out the vote. And I will tell you, we are bringing Republicans along right now because they're just kind of disgusted with politics as usual. Tactical question. And most of the polling that we see has you close but trailing. The Houston Chronicle reported recently that Greg Abbott is outspending you like 10 to one and that number
could still go up. How do you get that message out when all of a sudden you're getting carpet bombed and so is James Tarico on the airwaves here? Well, to date, Greg Abbott has spent at least 39 million in paid communications to my three million. And the more money he spends, the better I do. Um, there are now 11 polls within the last six weeks that show me at least within the margin of error, right? So, um, this is not a one-off, two-off poll that has me leading. This is a trend that shows we are gaining ground and as people get to know who I am, they are with me.
You spoke earlier about growing up in the Rio Grand Valley. Your launch video plays that up on Beetto's campaign. The idea of trying to turn out the valley and the Latino voters who live there who have not been politically active was a huge part of the strategy. How important is it for you and how do you activate all those people who are non- voters who are sort of waiting there for some message to get them off the couch? I don't know if you've been to the valley on this trip, but you go to the valley and you will keep meeting my cousins. Um, we are a tight-knit community. That's an interesting strategy to turn out family.
You know, it's true. Every time I go and we've been there so many times since I've launched, somebody will come up to me and say, "Gina, I'm your cousin. You just don't know me." But in that sense there is a real recognition of people know who I am and they know what I'm about and they know that I am from their community. They know I am from them right and so in that sense there is a different level of motivation to turn out a different level of motivation to vote for the first governor from the real Grand Valley. There's been gallons of ink spilled about the Latino vote in the last couple of cycles. Donald Trump did better than any Republican in recent memory with Latino voters. The polling seems to
indicate there's been some reversal in that trend. What are you hearing from Latino voters across the state about how they're approaching this election and how do Democrats like yourself kind of capture that imagination of that community again? I think the reason why Trump won and why he was able to capture the Latino vote in the valley and in Texas is because he said the system is rigged and it is rigged which how a lot of people feel. Yeah, that's right. People know it. Democrats had not been saying that Democrats have been defending a system that is indefensible that is actually working against us. And that is where Democrats lost credibility. right now. Of course, Trump's rigged it for himself and people
see it and they don't like it. Right? And if you look at the polling, Trump is underwater in Texas. People feel betrayed, but um listen, in this high-cost economy, people just want to know, are you going to work to make my life easier? Greg Abbott has been in charge for 12 years. It is harder to make it in Texas than it used to be before he was governor. I think people who aren't from border states misinterpret the border issue. It's obviously very nuanced in Texas. How do you think the administration's handling of border security first, but then immigration enforcement separate will affect this race? How will that play out among voters in Texas?
So, crossings are weighed down and that is because of President Trump. That is true. And it is also true that Joe Biden did not lead on border security and Democrats got punished. Now, what is happening with these ICE raids are not making us safer. are making us more um in under threat. They are targeting our communities. They are racially profiling Texans and people are angry about it. This is you will if you talk to the DA in Harris County, he will say he can't prosecute child sex abuse cases because the witnesses have been detained or deported are too afraid to come forward.
We used to make exceptions in the name of public safety for those kinds of things. But now we have almost a mercenary system where private prison companies are running these detention centers and making profit profits off of locking up hardened criminals and grandmothers and children, right? Which is why we have kids who are being locked up in Texas with their parents like little Liam. Did the administration overplay their hand on that issue? I just think border security is different than what ICE is doing. Those are two different things.
We want secure borders. Absolutely we do. We want to be safe and secure in our communities. There are a lot of Democrats who are going to go to Congress next year who are going to call for abolishing ICE. Is that something you'd support as governor of Texas? What I support, I won't have a say in that, but what I support is that we get back to a kind of policing where there's some accountability and transparency and ICE is not exhibiting that. I will say that. Look, in Texas, we require dash cams on um our car on our patrol vehicles, body cams on our officers. We don't allow for masked agents. Like all of those things are anti-transparency, anti-accountability, and so people are scared and rightfully so. That's not how
America is supposed to operate and that is not how we operate in Texas. Gina Hosa, got to leave it there. Thank you. And we're back with Here's the Scoop election Edition. And if my voice sounds a little different this week, it's probably my old Texas accent coming back as we're recording this episode from Austin. I'm here as part of the annual Texas Tribune Festival. The Tribune is a nonprofit digital first news organization that launched back in 2009. Their politics coverage is excellent and it's insightful and their reporters and editors tend to really understand this state well. And I'm joined now by one of those editors, Matthew Watkins. He's spent his whole career in Texas
journalism and became the Tribune's editor-inchief in 2024. He's an Aggie, but we won't hold that against him and we won't talk about Kentucky. [snorts] We'll focus on these big races here instead. Matt, sorry for the cheap shot about&M. Uh, but thank you for being here. Yeah, thank you for, you know, supporting me during this dark time. Uh, you'll you'll be okay. Um, I just want to start with some historical context. I mean, why do you think Texas has been such a steep mountain to climb for Democrats these last 30 years? Uh, it's a conservative state. I mean, that's the simple but right answer, right? And I think people have seen the demographic changes in this state, state
becoming less white, more Hispanic, more urban and suburban as opposed to rural. Uh and those have been things that have maybe made people think that it might move more democratic. But you know, people move here in part because of its reputation as a conservative state. Uh actually people who have moved to Texas vote more Republican than people who were born here, interestingly enough. Um so you know there's just a lot of culture here that has been here for a long time and it's it's hard to change that. It's also hard for an underdog party to run a campaign here because it's such a big state, so many big media markets where you have to buy TV ads. And so I think Democrats for a very long
time have sort of been like, why invest here when I can my money will go three times as far and you know insert other swing state, Nevada or Georgia or anything like that. And so it's been hard for the people on the ground trying to flip this state to get the buyin needed to really run serious campaigns. Gina Hinosa is making an argument trying to ask people to set aside the culture war issues and focus on economic issues. Do you think that's possible with Texas voters? Is that an perhaps a unique opportunity this cycle when the economy is so front of mind for people? Yeah, I would say something feels very unusual about this cycle in that people you travel around the state, people are really worked up about things that don't
necessarily evenly split among that partisan shift. It's data centers. It's uh affordability, housing affordability, other inflation. It's uh interesting things with the electric grid, right? And I think that has been a real opportunity for Democrats to say like, you know, we don't need to pay attention to some of these other things. The question is there's a lot of money pouring into this state right now in the Republican side and we're going to see a lot of television ads pushing those culture war issues. Will they be able will the Democrats be able to sort of sustain that blitz and will that move the needle at all? Terarico and Hinosa have both tried to put some distance
between themselves and the national Democratic Party. What is the Democratic Party brand in Texas if anything? And is that an effective strategy do you think? You know I will say in 2024 uh you know Texas had been sort of shifting more toward the center in the way it votes. you know, the margin of victory at the top of the ticket was going down and going down. And then in 2024 that it went the other way and that, you know, felt meaningful to me because so much of the campaigning was around those social issues and it just didn't go well. And that's uh you know people point to like the Hispanic voters in the state um a community that had
been sort of viewed as Democratic and Republicans were able to sort of pull some of those voters away a lot of times f focusing on those social issues. Uh so it's you know it's not going to be easy. There's, you know, Greg Abbott has a ton of resources. Yeah. Uh, you know, there's more than hundred million dollars coming in to bolster Ken Paxton. Um, we'll see whether they are able to convince folks that, okay, you still need to care about these issues. When things like the border, you know, the border is very calm right now in large part because of the things that Donald Trump has done and that's made a
lot of voters happy here. It's also sort of taken away that issue. I we talked about this with Hina hosted the difference between border security on which Republican policies have been very popular and what ICE is doing now and internal enforcement which has drawn a backlash. I mean do you think it's possible that there'll be a backlash to Republican policies on that issue? I mean if you look at the polling if you look at how some special elections have gone between 2024 and 2026 the answer seems to be clearly yes. Uh there are a lot of you know again Hispanic people in the state who worry about even if they are citizens whether they're going to be profiled or you know approached or
bothered by ICE. Uh I also think you know smart people have sort of made the point that maybe it's about order you know and when people saw those images of people crossing over it felt like disorder but now they see you know people being shot in the streets and it still feels like disorder. And so now it's the Republicans who are responsible for that disorder and maybe that affects how people view those issues. The Latino vote is always a big part of the story here in Texas. Donald Trump had a much better share with those voters in 2024 than other Republicans have had recently. What kind of numbers do uh Telerico and Hinosa really need to
hit on election night if they're going to be successful? Yeah, the polling has suggested, you know, Terico running in the 60s with Hispanic voters. If that happens, it's going to be a really interesting night. Um, I mean, that's a But Betto Rook did better than that. He still came up short, right? That's true. But, uh, the state has continued to change. You know, the thing that really held the state for Republicans in that Btoor race was rural Texas. An area that continues to lose population and the areas where Democrats do strong continue to gain population. So, the demographics continue to shift in the state in that way. And you look at places like there was a uh earlier this year a special election for state
senate. Taylor Reett was the candidate. Um a heavy Republican district suburban very Hispanic and Taylor Reett won that race. The Democrat won that race because of that shift. And if we see those sort of numbers replicate special elections can be kind of weird. But if we see those numbers replicate I'm not saying that Terrier Rico is going to win. But what I am saying is we're going to go into that night not knowing who's going to win. And that's unusual in Texas. Republicans have been trying to reassure themselves and their voters that they've seen something like this before with the Betto race that it was, you know, Democrats were feeling really good in September and October and then November
came around and the state looked like it traditionally does. Um, outline what you think are the key similarities and differences between OORC versus Ted Cruz and Talico versus Paxton now. Yeah, I would say the similarities of course are it's the it's a midterm election with Donald Trump in the White House. The party that controls the White House tends to do worse during those times. Uh there's a candidate who has people excited. Uh Bedto Aor really sparked an energy and Telerico has that energy behind him as well. He's really good on social media. He had, you know, before he entered this race, he had the biggest following of any state representative on Tik Tok or Instagram in the entire country. The differences I
think again some of the political like what people are talking about is different. What we talked about earlier about you know topics like data centers some of those like less partisan issues on the race and the other difference is that Telerico is leading in the polls and that never happened in the Betto race. It was close and people took notice because it was close but the last 12 polls from independent pollsters that the Tribune tracks on our poll tracker Telerico has had the lead. Beetto had led maybe one poll the entire cycle and at this point in the race was down by five six percentage points in the polls.
We haven't talked a lot about Ken Paxton. Um but obviously he's kind of a uniquely flawed candidate in a number of ways. What problems does having him on the ticket where he is present for Republicans who are not named Ken Paxton? And what are the challenges that he's going to face for keeping that race competitive? Yeah, one of the interesting stories is that when Beto lost that race, uh, one of the things that happened were a lot of state representatives flipped seats, state senators flip seats, including James Terico. That was the year he was first elected, right? And I think there's a lot of fear, even if Paxton wins this race that, you know, some of those other races are going to go the other direction and it's
going to just have a long-term impact on the politics of the state. You know, Paxton, you're right, he's a flawed candidate. you know, he was impeached by the Republican Texas House, right? Uh he has, you know, been under criminal investigations. I think what we are going to see for the rest of this campaign is not necessarily a pro Paxton campaign, but an anti-Taler Rico campaign. You may not love this guy. I mean, Trump says this, right? You may not love the way he talks. You may not love the way he dresses, but you really don't want James Telerico representing you in this state. And again, we'll see if that message works. In some other states, we're starting to see Republican lawmakers distance themselves from the
president on things like Iran, on affordability. Have we seen any of that in Texas so far? And do you think we will? Not really. No. I mean, I think um Paxton sort of can't distance himself from Trump. Exactly. And I think he needs those voters, right? like his goal is going to be turning people off from Teler Rico and trying to excite that Trump base as much as possible and convince them to show up during a season where that might be a challenge. Um, so I don't uh I don't know about that. I mean, I think uh again, Abbott is a different scenario and you might see a different case there.
I'm sort of fascinated by this dynamic nationwide about the Republicans losing rural voters, but Democrats still have to gain them, right? Like that seems to be the gap. I think there's a lot of rural voters who are ready to vote for somebody else, but they're not yet sold on the Democrats who are available to them. Yeah. And then the question is, do you are you mad enough to vote for a Democrat? I think my gut tells me a lot of these folks the answer to that question is no. But are you so mad that you're not going to get up and drive 20 minutes to the poll on election day or before election day? That is the bigger question. And uh I think there's a lot of worry uh like I mean really if you go
to town halls with state legislators if you go to these campaigns there is a lot of anger there and uh the Republicans in the state are really scrambling to sort of respond to that and show that they're listening and will you know hear that anger the next time they meet in the legislature. Do you think there's a similar thing at play with Terico and the Cornin voters out there? I mean, he's tried very hard to leave an open door to Cornin voters to be welcome in his campaign. Is he likely to get them or you think he's more likely to get them to stay home? I think that there's a certain segment of Republican that is so disgusted with Paxton that they're not going to cast a vote for him and might even sort of
quietly vote for Terico. Like I hear that from some former legislators, some you know people in the political world. The question is like how much does that translate to the average voter? One of the mistakes people made about this race is they were like Paxton has been elected statewide many times, so everyone knows him and knows who he is. Uh but it's a whole different thing running the fifth name, the fifth race down on the ballot from the top name on the ballot. And I think people are learning a lot about him now. And that kind of cuts both ways. So that those
sort of like internal Republican party squables are not as familiar to the average voter in, you know, Plano, Texas or something. So again, I think it's more about uh energizing and people maybe choosing to stay home or skip that race than like a massive amount of Republicans coming over and supporting James Terico. I'm trying to think of some of the other sort of voting groups that, you know, can drive some of these elections. I mean, Terrico has had problems consolidating the African-American vote. What are you seeing in terms of that? Is he making progress there? Yeah. You know, so this was he was in a heated primary with Jasmine Crockett, the um the representative from the Dallas area. Uh there were a lot of people who felt that not Telerico
himself but maybe some of his surrogates were um saying things about Crockett that um you know you might not say about a white man but would say about a black woman. Uh and there's a lot of harsh feelings about that. I mean Crockett is not campaigning with Terico. She's saying she's spending her time focusing on down ballot. But you know he was at a black church in Dallas over the weekend. Uh the polls seem to suggest that he has black voter support. They argue that this is sort of like a cooked up media narrative. Um there are certainly some people who are opposed or you know have some harsh feelings, but when you see
that opportunity to perhaps get the first Democratic victory in a generation in this state, uh it feels like people are kind of falling in line in the Democratic party behind him. So what will you be watching for in these last couple of weeks to try to see how this all going to shake out? I think um whether these attacks move the needle is Terrigo able to convince people that he's not a fringe candidate, you know, the sort of maskearing uh you know there's six genders type things. There are some quotes that he has given in the past where he says things like that. Um and I think he's he's backed away from those. He's tried to moderate. Do people buy that? Do people care this time around?
There's one other person we should probably ask about since we're in Austin doing a podcast. The world's most famous Austinbased podcaster, Joe Rogan, kind of put James Terrio on the map. Did Joe Rogan create a permission structure to at least go check out James Tarico? I think so. Yeah. and um and the you know that it only needs to happen around the margins, right? The you know people talked about you know Joe Rogan about there was a time where he might be more aligned with the Democratic party and what we saw in 2024 was that whole segment that saw the Democrats as sort of woke and wimpy and you know not manly or whatever. They rushed to Trump and uh if they don't rush to Trump again this year, this
state looks a lot different than it did in 2024. Matthew Watkins, we'll leave it there. Thanks for having me. And that's going to do it for us today on Here's a Scoop Election Edition. Thank you for joining us. Next week on the show, we're going to talk about how secure our elections are and why they're likely to be contentious. Anyway, it is so terrible. Our elections are so rigged and crooked. For the past decade, President Trump and many Republicans have been railing against what they call a rigged system. So, we're going to two states that have been battlegrounds for lawsuits in the past. Pennsylvania and Georgia. That's next Saturday on Here's the Scoop Election Edition.
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