20:24
down to 61k. Sailor killed. Yeah. You think Bitcoin was murdered by murder. This is not good. Spot bitcoin ETFs are on an outflow streak. 13 trading days in a row with outflows that total $4.4 billion sold. Now, Michael Sailor Strategy only sold 32 coins. He only sold 2.5 million. Yet, the institutional players, at least the people that buy Bitcoin through the ETFs, 17 of the last 19 trading days have been outflows that total almost 5.6 billion. Who is selling Bitcoin and when will it stop? 12.6 trillion. Charles Schwab, their director of research, explains what's actually happening. Who is selling? Sweeney asked this question the other day. I'm stealing it from him. Who is selling? uh primarily
people who have acquired Bitcoin in the past year and a half. So some of the metrics that we track are the cost basis for ETF holders or ETP holders. That's about $83,000 today. We also have a metric for the average cost basis for any holder of Bitcoin. That and this is called the active investor cost basis. It does not include what's been rewarded to miners. And so that's about $78,000 today. The average Bitcoin bit, excuse me, the average bit dog cost is 80. What did you say? $78,000. I have no idea. So, if you think about it from that perspective, people in the past year and a half or so, they bought Bitcoin. They experienced a quick rally up to $126,000 and then quickly saw their entire investment get cut in half.
Wow. This is how bottoms are formed. More than half of all BTC in circulation is now held at an unrealized loss. A signal that has coincided with every major bare market bottom in history. So the people that still hold Bitcoin, the the Bitcoin in circulation now, have they made money? Have they lost money? More than half, if they would sell now, have lost money. This is how bottoms are formed. like here, like in the bare market of 2022, like in the depths of 2020 and 201819. The reason that something like this can show us can trigger a bottom is because if you still hold a Bitcoin now, if you were to sell, you would lose money. And if you've held till this point, you might as well hold
until the next rally, until we're up a little bit. When sellers get exhausted and they don't want to sell anymore, that's how bottoms are formed. Now, Jim Kramer on CNBC this morning will tell you this time's different. Sailor is murdering Bitcoin. Here's the full clip for full context. Down to 61K. You know, Sailor killed Yeah. You know how do you know how Scott Pel said that 60 minutes was murdered by his team? Yes. You think Bitcoin was murdered? By sailor. Sailor murder. They sold it was a matter of a few million. He murdered. Doesn't matter. No, he just the symbolism of then you did say yet there's two things that he really doesn't understand. Number one, Bitcoin
always does it does this literally four out of four bare markets price has reverted to the mean. Reverted to the mean has touched the 200 week moving average and then consolidated and then consolidated. And that makes sense. When something gets a little too hyped, a little too big for their britches, it reverts back to the standard to the mean. And we can see this just this last year. We see this what happened in 2021. Not going to draw the circles, but we see this in the bare market of 2018 2019. Severely overhyped, revert back to the 200E moving average. Revert to the mean, bounce around it for a while. I mean, literally, this happens every
single time. 100% of Bitcoin bare markets. We're a little hyped. We revert to the mean, the 200WE moving average where we consolidate and bounce and grind up from there. This is what gets out the speculators, the paper hands, allows the diamond hands to bring down their cost basis, get a bigger position, understanding that three big mega trends are only getting bigger. The mega trends being governments and central banks globally. They will continue to print. They will continue to debase. Mega trends like tokenization, the clarity act, regulating it in America for the first time ever. All these are reasons that this crypto market is only getting bigger. Consolidate, get out the
garbage, the quality grows. And number two, this was really interesting. $12.6 trillion. Charles Schwab, their head of research, educates, educates Bloomberg that Bitcoin is backed by energy. This happens every single cycle. And the miners, the energy costs to mine Bitcoin tend to mark the bottom. The energy costs to produce price always reverts to the mean. Just listen. Speculation, mining, whatever. Let me go back to Rafael hour 101. What's the underlying? Apple's underlying is the expectation of free cash flow. The underlying of the nicks is Brunson's going to get it done. What's the underlying of Bitcoin?
Energy. It costs money to produce Bitcoin. And every our entire framework for investing in cryp uh Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies comes down to minor metrics. There are energy costs and infrastructure costs associated with producing Bitcoin. In any product, theoretically, the price of a product should be at a premium to the cost of producing it. And so, we can see this. We know for the best miners, those that have the cheapest energy costs and the most advanced fleets of AS6, they produce Bitcoin at about $60,000 per Bitcoin. Really? Wow. So historically, I haven't heard that data point ever in my discussion of crypto. So what does that mean within the micro, you know, the Chicago price theory of the Satan Hall price theory of
this? If 60,000 is my manufacturing cost, what does it mean for price? Are we going to go under 60? The answer is yes. Well, first let me point out as a Satan Hall grad, uh it's important to think about what this has done historically in deep bare markets for those top producing miners, their cost of production has served as a bottom. Now, honestly, I used to put more credit into the metric of cost of production, a level that has acted as a price floor since 2019, but just understand that cost of production can fluctuate. So, this quote unquote floor price, yes, it's true, and it honestly depends on which miners because it costs more for different miners. You got to be looking at the whole thing in aggregate, but
this can fluctuate. It's not perfect. Altcoin Daily will keep it real for you. That's why you subscribe to have a better understanding of crypto with just one video per day, keeping you informed. Join us. Our goal is to hit 2 million subscribers by the end of this year. For me personally, all I know is I'm accumulating. Think about this. the literally the only time in Bitcoin's history that we have spent an extended amount of time under the 200 week moving average. Usually we just touch grind right on it and go up. The only time in history Bitcoin dipped significantly below it was the last bare market during the FTX collapse during 2022. That was scary.
is are we going to have a collapse of the second largest trading exch uh second largest crypto exchange by trading volume this time I would think no I would think the fear uncertainty and doubt based on the level of players collapsing in that bare market was much bigger to me that says we probably won't go significantly under the 200WE moving average for long of course anything can happen if we did for the first time ever we went to the 50s, maybe we went to 45 or 35. That would be something Bitcoin has never done before. Just like last cycle, Bitcoin had never done this before in a bare market. Dipped under the 200E moving average for that amount of time. Could that happen? Yes. And I
think that would be an incredible buying opportunity, bigger than a buying opportunity than it was back then because the mega trends, because of the of our investing thesis did not change. Nothing fundamentally is different with Bitcoin and crypto. It's just macro. It's just people interested in artificial intelligence, SpaceX, whatever for the rest of this year. That'll pass. The boring, apathetic downtimes is when I like to accumulate. Click subscribe for daily videos. Like always, we see you tomorrow.
