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Christopher, talk us through the elements of the deal that we think might be on the table for the Cubans. I think that key would be some sort of outline for when Cuba would hold multi-party free and fair elections. They can kick that can down the road indefinitely, but any deal that just sort of loosens the screws in some way, if you will, sort of alleviating some of the economic pressure, allowing the oil embargo to be lifted or the blockade to be lifted, maybe allowing for uh some form of leadership change. That will all be contingent on basically a credible plan that Rubio
can sell to the Cuban Americans to say, "Okay, we you didn't get everything you wanted, but we've got a plan and we're moving forward." It's the same thing that Trump has done, but hasn't fulfilled in the case of Venezuela. Let's dig into that. I'm old enough to remember when Florida was a swing state, but because you had the what 1.2 1.5 million Cubans who voted in Florida, they had extraordinary political power over both parties, right? Democrats and Republicans, presidents of both parties frightened of being seen as soft on Cuba, frightened of lifting the embargo. And
these ferocious laws passed by hardliners over the decades in Congress, essentially making it impossible for any American president to lift the embargo on the Cuban regime without Congress's say. So, is that still an obstacle today? Is that sort of one of the fundamental obstacles if Donald Trump wants to start his kind of deal making non ideological transactional deal-making? Christopher, start with the Washington angle of this. The Washington angle, first of all, is as you say, it used to be a purple state as we say in the US, it's clearly now a red state.
And that's interesting because when Obama loosened the embargo in 2014, there were polls and surveys that were demonstrating that actually Cuban Americans, especially the younger generation, were much more open to some sort of uh liberalization of the embargo. And they were able to find a legal justification for that. What's interesting is in 20 post 2017 when Trump reimposed and began it again re-engaging that heated rhetoric about human rights and regime change, a better deal for Cubans, it flipped. It went back to a hardline attitude. Now, the one thing and your
great interview with Joe Garcia in the article, David de is correct is that if anyone can deliver that sort of promise of postponing or a long view among Cuban Americans, it's Marco Rubio and Donald Trump. They're deeply Republican. So, I'm glad you mentioned Joe Garcia. He was, I think, my favorite interview to Miami him. He's a former Democratic congressman, but he's a centrist Democrat, Cuban American, kind of larger than life figure in South Florida. Let's hear from Joe. Donald Trump may have not kept many of his promises, but he's kept his promise to Cuban Americans,
and he's gotten us this far. No one has come so far so fast, and we're on the verge of something here. Marco Rubio has already shown tremendous elacrity and ability to break moray that were here to for impossible for a Cuban-American leader to do. And if they find how to get a willing partner on the other side, it doesn't matter what that [__] kroeta looks like, Cubanameans will eat it because most of them are on the dole anyway in terms of this administration. Marco Rubio and Donald Trump can cut a deal. The Cubans just got to get out of their own way and find a way
to agree to what's been offered, which is damn good for everyone concerned. So Sarah, tell us what how you respond to that. I think Joe Garcia is right on this. I mean, I think to start with, it is the Cuban regime that's standing in the Cuban regime's way and stopping this deal, which you can see the outlines of you could see how this could work and could work for everyone, especially if it keeps as it seems most of the time willing Marco Rubio and Trump to actually keep the regime in place and just ask for more economic opening is the main thing that they're
asking for. So you could see that's something that could help the Cuban regime stay in power because, you know, they obviously can't supply for the island with what it needs in any way at all. And so this allows them to continue in power while also letting Cubans actually have some form of being able to live. So I think it is probably their best chance of getting a deal if they manage to step out of the way of doing that. Let me finish to both of you with maybe a bit of a provocative question. You know, there's lots of reasons to be skeptical of the claim
that President Trump as this kind of dealmaking businessman knows how to fix every crisis on Earth and end wars. But is Cuba maybe a good example, maybe the only example where actually what they need is a businessman and his businessman friends to cut some deals because we've tried ideology and purity and confrontation for six decades and the result has been utter misery. So, is it time to give deal making and business a chance? I think it is, frankly. But I'm not sure Donald Trump's a one. The problem with Donald Trump is he's not just a capitalist. He's a crony capitalist. Uh,
and that will not lend itself well to really seriously rebuilding Cuba. And if I can be so pessimistic, he can strike a deal. And I hope he does. That's even an equal and transparent. But the problem is he is that it will be postponed and really used as a way of extending contracts to all of his friends more than opening up Cuba and a slow motion uh regime and economic change is probably much more necessary. Sarah, are you more optimistic? No, I mean I agree with Christopher. I think you know this is Donald Trump. It's it's good to try and find different ways of doing
things with the Cubans. I think Marco Rubio has spent his whole entire life thinking about how to go about this. And so this is clearly a moment of opportunity for both Cuba and America to come to some form of deal. But the other problem we've seen with Donald Trump apart from the crony capitalism and everything that Christopher uh did well to mention is he has no ability to stick to a plan either. you know, the lack of nuance, but also this sense of, okay, if we come up with this plan that requires an attention span of longer than a couple of weeks, that we have some form
of political transition at the end of and some goal of free and fair elections that after a week, it's like, you know, I've done the deal, I've had the publicity, the cameras have come and taken the picture and that's it. And so, I think, you know, with this form of deal or this sort of deal, it would be extremely complex and would need the followup to be happening, you know, consistently over a course of many months, if not years. It's hard to see Donald Trump doing that. I'm gonna put my cards on the table. I think I'm a bit more optimistic. I think that even a shabby deal that
sweeps away this absolutely bankrupt, decrepit, uh, utterly stubborn and ignorant regime, uh, then America has all the incentives in the world to pardon. No, no other country on earth cares about Cuba as much as America does, and it's 90 miles away. So, I think it could be shabby. It could be cronyish, but if that sweeps away the regime, I'm I'm willing to put a bet on that.
