Why a Permanent Human Colony on the Moon Could Be More Dangerous Than We Think

It's the year 2032 and humans are living on the moon. Somewhere near its South Pole, at the edge of a crater so deep that sunlight has never touched the bottom, a cluster of silver and white structures mark a stark contrast to the black star-filled sky. Inside one of those little white structures, someone is making a cup of coffee and checking the space weather report to see when the next burst of deadly solar radiation will arrive. Note, this isn't science fiction. This is what the first human moon base will actually look like. Because for the first time in history, NASA has released a phased blueprint for how we will colonize the moon over the next 10 years

and the plan is already in motion. But, as with any revolutionary project, it has big questions to answer. Where do we build it? How will we construct it before astronauts arrive? What will daily life look like once people move in? Although, perhaps more importantly, what I want to know is how we will use the space. There's talk of a much darker side to our lunar escapades. I'm Alex McColgan and you're watching Astrum. Join me as we walk through the plans for humanity's first permanent home on another world. We'll look into the issues they might run into and explore how some of the tech, like a satellite launching electromagnetic

catapult, might have dangerous alternative uses. Before we get too excited about the prospect of a lunar base, let's rewind for just a minute and recap on how exactly we got here. In 1969, Apollo 11 landed in the Sea of Tranquility on the near side of the moon, just north of the lunar equator. Over the next couple of years, five more Apollo missions touched down in other locations and 12 different people walked on the surface. Each time the crew brought everything they needed to survive and stayed anywhere from hours to a few days. The Apollo program was incredible. It showed what humans were capable of. But since 1972, no one has returned.

The Artemis program is now using early missions to build our foundational capabilities. Artemis 1 was an uncrewed test flight around the moon in late 2022, followed by Artemis 2 in 2026, which carried a crew further from Earth than any humans before on a 9-day journey around the moon and back. Artemis 3 will be NASA's most complex crewed mission to date involving three separate rocket launches and two privately built lunar landers that will carry out a series of demonstrations in low Earth orbit designed to validate critical systems for future moon landings. Artemis 4 will push further still with astronauts actually touching down on the lunar surface staying approximately a week, more than twice the Apollo 17 record. But these milestones are only steps

towards a far more ambitious plan transforming the moon into a place where people actually live. The problem is that when Artemis was announced, we didn't actually have a long-term plan for how to achieve it. But recently, that's changed. NASA has released a blueprint for how we will work toward a not so distant future where humans can maintain a constant presence on our celestial satellite. The plan is broken down into phases from robot explorers to livable infrastructure starting now in 2026 and continuing through 2030 and beyond. So, let's take a look.

The first question NASA had to answer is, "Where should a moon base go?" And there are two big problems with deciding on a specific location. Firstly, across the majority of the surface of the moon, day and night last about 2 weeks each. A moon base and its inhabitants would need to survive 2 weeks of unfiltered, dangerous, and blistering sunlight followed by 2 weeks of total darkness and temperatures that can fall to minus 180° C. That presents quite an engineering headache for everything from keeping the lights on to the safety of the astronauts.

The other big problem is resources, water in particular. A permanent presence anywhere is only possible if we have access to it. We are water-based organisms after all. But with such extreme conditions, where and how can we find that precious commodity on the moon's surface? Well, if you happen to have watched any of my previous videos about water on the moon, you will already know the answer to this. It lies at the lunar South Pole. This is a particularly strange place, stranger than the rest of the moon. Why? Well, it all comes down to axial tilt and ancient comets. On Earth, our planet has a 23.5° tilt, which means that even though our polar regions may experience polar night, spending months in darkness as the seasons change, so does the angle

and the amount of sunlight that reaches these areas. There may be very deep polar ravines or caves that never see sunlight, but really there are no parts of the surface of Earth that are continually in the dark. In contrast, the moon's tilt relative to the sun is almost totally upright at just 1.6°. So, some places in the lunar South Pole never get direct sunlight. Instead, it barely skims the horizon without rising any higher. And while a tall crater may get nearly continuous sunlight, the bottom of it may remain in perpetual shadow with nothing to warm the surface. Here, temperatures can get as low as -203°C.

Mapped by NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter in 2013 and aptly named permanently shadowed regions, the insides of these craters haven't seen sunlight in more than 2 billion years and they act like a deep freeze. Water brought to the moon by ancient comet impacts billions of years ago got trapped down there in the dark accumulating as ice. This geographically close contrast of light and darkness, hot and cold presents a great opportunity. We've got a pristine conserved water source, ridges with near continuous sunlight for solar panels collecting energy, and great real estate options hosting indirect, nearly constant light and mild temperatures in the twilight

zone. So, moon inhabitants wouldn't need to endure 2 weeks of the most harsh daylight or 2 weeks of extreme dark and frigid cold. Of course, any astronauts here would still probably need a little something from Earth to make this whole place feel a bit more like home. Perhaps someone should give them a parting gift as they head moonward, one that is useful for writing up those space weather reports, sits majestically on their lunar office desk, and perfectly helps them get into the low gravity zone. And what better fits the space theme bill than the Hoverpen Interstellar from today's sponsor, Novium. The Hoverpen Interstellar is a floating desk pen that levitates from its base using permanent magnets. No electricity required. It

floats at 23.5° angle, just like the Earth's tilt, and is made of aerospace grade aluminum as a permanent nod to Earth and space. If you get the premium version, it comes with a piece of meteorite inside of it. An authentic piece of space right on your desk. The HoverPen Interstellar has a range of colors, starlight silver, space black, Mars magma, and Neptune blue. So, you'll always find the one you want. It's the perfect gift for someone either on the moon or wanting to feel like you're already there. Check out Novium's HoverPen Interstellar or the fountain pen or rollerball pen version, the HoverPen Future, by scanning my QR code or following the link in the description below. Shipping is free to most

countries, and for the next week only, Novium is offering my viewers a 15% discount if you use the discount code ASTRO at checkout. Give it a look. All right. Now that we know where the moon base will be, what comes next? This is the start of the fun stuff, because the answer is robots. The blueprint for the moon base is divided into three phases. I'll summarize the phases for a big picture view first, then we'll get into the details of each step.

Phase one is already in motion and will continue through 2029. It focuses on robotic machines to survey the South Pole region, test critical technology, and prepare for surface operations. Phase two is slated for 2029 to 2032 and involves building semi-permanent infrastructure, testing key technology, logistics, and early habitation. Phase three covers 2032 and beyond, aiming for a sustained human presence on the moon with routine crew rotations and surface activity. After that, we'll take a look at what people other than NASA are dreaming up. And that's where things look a little

less friendly. Seeing as we're already in phase one, let's get into the details of what's happening now. The series of missions will deliver payloads to the lunar South Pole, the first of which has a targeted launch date of early 2027. Among the equipment to be delivered on this first landing will be stereo cameras to study how thrusters interact with the moon's surface and a laser retroreflector array used to measure precise distances and guide spacecraft. It will touch down on what's known as the Shackleton Connecting Ridge, a narrow strip of high ground that extends away from the rim Shackleton crater.

This is one of the most scientifically important permanently shadowed craters at the South Pole because it provides the perfect mix of water ice at the crater floor and almost constant sunlight at the rim that I mentioned earlier. It also has a clear line of sight, making communication with Earth relatively easy, reducing the risk for the later crude landing of Artemis 4 in 2028. Other phase one missions originally targeted to launch in 2026 will deliver international science payloads and Astrolab's Flex Lunar Innovation Platform, a rover that will demonstrate important mobility technology and inform

future lunar terrain vehicle or LTV use. It's designed to deliver scientific instruments and equipment as well as operate autonomously. I told you there'd be robots. Alongside these landers, NASA has announced a fleet of small hopping robots nicknamed Moon Fall drones to set launch in a single mission in 2028. Inspired by NASA's Ingenuity Mars helicopter, the Moon Fall drones will fly to the moon aboard Firefly Aerospace's Elitra spacecraft and deploy during descent to the lunar surface.

Rather than carrying across the surface the way traditional rovers do, these drones are designed to fly from point to point across the rugged crater park terrain near the pole, a method that's far more effective than wheel will in an environment full of steep slopes and boulder fields, unaided by reduced gravity. Their job is to survey the terrain in high resolution, gathering detailed imagery that mission planners need ahead of the crude missions. After their initial survey work is complete, the drones will continue operating for months, providing an ongoing stream of data about the region.

Talk about a lofty set of goals to squeeze into the next 3 years. As many as 21 landings in just 36 months is a genuinely aggressive short-term deadline, and it tells you something important about where we are in the story. Despite a proposed budget cut to NASA for 2027, which would cut total funding by 23% and reduce funding to science programs by nearly half, the budget does maintain and actually increases funding for lunar exploration. That increase will help to fully fund the Artemis program and new robotic missions to establish a moon base. This isn't a plan sitting in a drawer waiting for funding decades into the future. This is hardware under contract with named companies being funded and built right now, and aimed for

completion during the specific window of just 3 years. Think about what that means practically. Long before any astronaut's boots touch the ground near the South Pole, this small army of rovers, landers, and drones will already have crawled, driven, and hopped across the exact terrain that the base will eventually sit on. They'll measure the ice. They'll map the boulders and the slopes. They'll test the solar panels and the navigation systems. By the time a crude mission arrives, the base's own robotic ancestors will already have done the reconnaissance to make sure the environment is safe for humans and the water is good to drink. But then comes the hard part. If phase one is characterized by

scouting, then phase two is all about building, beginning in 2029. This phase will include the delivery of up to 60 tons of cargo across as many as 24 landings, lasting from 2029 to 2032. Phase two will see the deployment of new and expanding power systems and the delivery of upgraded rovers and potentially more advanced moonfall drones. A highlight of these LTVs is a pressurized rover that will be built by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency. This will provide astronauts with the ability to travel greater distances, living and working in the rover for up to 30 days, allowing them

to conduct research more efficiently and comfortably without the need to wear a spacesuit during the commute. It's sort of like a lunar camper van, and I certainly wouldn't mind trying one of them out. Next is communication and navigation. On Earth, we're quite used to having GPS and cell networks, but on the moon, astronauts have had to navigate without those, which is a serious limitation for a permanent moon base that needs continuous, reliable connectivity. I mean, even astronauts will want to be able to call home. NASA plans to deploy dedicated surface-to-orbit communication stations, providing higher data capacity and more reliable connections.

This is also where the European Space Agency's Moonlight program comes in. Moonlight is designed to be, in effect, the moon's own version of GPS and cellular infrastructure combined, a constellation of satellites in orbit around it, providing navigation and communication services to landers, rovers, and eventually astronauts on the surface. Moonlight is being developed in coordination with NASA and Japan's space agency JAXA around a shared set of technical standards known as LunaNet, so that missions from multiple countries and companies can all use the same lunar communications backbone rather than everyone building their own incompatible system from scratch.

NASA will also position surface communication nodes around the lunar South Pole that cover roughly an area of 10 km each. These nodes will act similar to cell towers on Earth. And with all this infrastructure coming online in phase two, you might wonder where all the power will come from. Well, although solar power is a practical source, it still has limitations. And a moon base needs consistent power to support habitation. Even at the South Pole, there will be periods of darkness or shadow. Dust may accumulate on panels, or there may be growing demand for power as the base expands from a handful of visiting astronauts to a genuinely permanent population.

To solve this, plans are underway for a lunar fission reactor. A small nuclear power system designed to provide steady, reliable electricity independent of the sun's position in the sky, supplementing solar power and providing the kind of always-on base load energy that a truly permanent settlement requires. And to help inform these large-scale endeavors, NASA plans to use RTGs, or radioisotope thermoelectric generators during this phase, capable of producing hundreds of watts of power our lunar residents can use. These three things form the backbone of phase two: mobility rovers, connectivity, and power. The beginnings of habitation. But, there's one more important piece to phase two.

What will moon inhabitants do about radiation? On Earth, we're protected from the harshest forms of space radiation by a combination of our planet's magnetic field, which deflects charged particles around the sun, and our thick atmosphere, which absorbs a huge amount of the radiation. But, the Moon has no global magnetic field, and an atmosphere so thin, it might as well not exist. That means the lunar surface is bathed in two kinds of dangerous radiation, a steady background of galactic cosmic rays arriving from outside our solar system, and periodic, sometimes intense bursts of energetic particles thrown out by the Sun itself during solar storms. In 2020, a dosimeter inside China's Chang'e-4 probe found that the

astronauts on the Moon would be exposed to roughly 200 times the radiation levels as people on Earth, and even more during solar storms. For a mission lasting a few days like Apollo, this exposure was manageable. For a mission lasting months or years, for a genuinely permanent settlement where people might live for a large fraction of their lives, it becomes one of the single most serious health risks astronauts will face. They will need to be protected from the constant radiation, but especially from the radiation spikes during storms. On top of that, there's also the danger of micrometeorites.

A recent modeling study estimated that an ISS-sized Moon base near the lunar South Pole could be struck by around 15,000 micrometeoroids each year. Without an atmosphere to burn up incoming debris the way Earth does, even tiny particles of rock and dust from space strike the lunar surface at extraordinary velocities, up to 70 km per second. That's around 70 times the speed of a bullet when it leaves the muzzle of a rifle. A structure built entirely on the open surface has to be engineered to withstand this constant low-level bombardment indefinitely. So, how do they get around that?

The answer may come from ancient volcanic activity on the moon, more specifically in the form of lava tubes. In its early history, the moon experienced periods of active volcanism with rivers of molten lava flowing across its surface. As the outer surface cooled and hardened into rock, in some cases the still molten lava underneath drained away, leaving behind long, hollow, [snorts] tunnel-like structures. In 2024, researchers studying this phenomenon found the first ever evidence for lunar lava tubes with ceilings more than 100 m thick and interior chambers potentially large enough to enclose entire city blocks with diameters spanning hundreds of meters across. While no official plans have been unveiled about building inside lava

tubes just yet, a publication in the International Journal of Mining Science and Technology found that these lava tubes could provide excellent radiation shielding and robust protection for micrometeorites. And in 2026, a multidisciplinary team at Space Treks, the Space and Terrestrial Robotic Exploration Laboratory at the University of Arizona, designed structural concepts for using existing lava tubes to house a lunar data center, an astronaut refuge, and a lunar command center. The benefits don't stop at radiation shielding or micrometeorite protection, either. Lava tubes also offer remarkably stable internal temperatures, with some research suggesting interior conditions holding steady at around minus 20° C

even when surface temperatures measured swings between 110° to minus 170° C. A structure built inside a lava tube wouldn't have to be engineered to survive that entire punishing range, just a moderately cold environment, which is a vastly simpler engineering problem and nothing some parts of Earth aren't used to anyway. The concept of living and working in these ancient lunar lava tubes is a real possibility. And if we are going to utilize these natural structures, plans will likely come together soon. Although, it doesn't leave much time for picking out furniture. And if we don't get it all sorted in time for the Artemis 4 touchdown, then another possible solution is a Whipple shield. Similar to the protection already used on spacecraft such as the ISS,

this is a thin outer layer that breaks apart incoming particles, spreading their energy across a gap before the fragments reach the habitat's main wall. A recent modeling study estimated that a Whipple shield could stop about 99.9997% of incoming micrometeorites, but and it's quite a big but, a powerful enough impact to blast through the defenses might hit roughly once every 42 years. So, a full protection scheme is still a work in progress. Which brings us to the final phase. According to the blueprint, it'll be a busy time for Moon base inhabitants.

Beginning in 2032, phase three takes things to the next level with 29 launches and all but one plan to actually land on the Moon. This is the part when major Moon dirt gets moved and permanent infrastructure is laid down. Although less is known about this phase of the plan, what we do know is that NASA has plans to transition from short-term habitats to semi-permanent habitation modules with more comfortable interiors for the crew, as well as operational fission power systems. Phase three will mark a transition from simply demonstrating the collection of lunar resources to actually using those

resources like water, oxygen, and hydrogen in a sustained way. This will also be a shift to a more advanced network of logistics to keep the base running year-round, supported by the crew, autonomous rovers, uncrewed payload return trips, and delivery of up to 38 tons of cargo annually to sustain the system's operations and inhabitants. So, what would it look like to live on the moon? This is the part of the story that's hardest to pin down with facts because a functioning day-to-day lunar settlement doesn't exist yet, so we can't know for sure. But, perhaps that just makes it more fun to imagine. And based on everything we've talked

about so far, we can at least paint a reasonable picture of what daily existence is likely to involve. Near the South Pole, the sun never climbs high overhead. Instead, it only just peaks above the horizon as it slowly circles, casting long, dramatic shadows. Getting around would mean relying heavily on the rovers. But, given the harsh radiation and temperatures on the moon, and the sheer physical toll of working in a pressurized space suit, time spent directly on the open surface might be carefully rationed and monitored, much like how spacewalks are scheduled and tracked today. Communication back to friends and family on Earth and between different parts of the base itself would likely run through the satellite networks like Moonlight

circling overhead, providing the kind of steady connectivity that hasn't existed for any previous lunar mission, an important quality of life improvement. And perhaps you live in a shielded module connected to several others, or maybe your living quarters would be built inside a hollow lava tube for protection. It's worth being honest about what we don't know yet. Will there be long-term psychological effects of living in relative isolation? Will all of the inhabitants' food need to be sent from Earth, or will we find ways to produce it on the moon? What happens if someone needs urgent medical care?

A permanent moon base will help us begin to answer many of these questions directly through lived experience rather than through speculation alone. But, establishing a moon base now, this rapidly, is not just about scientific questions. There's some strategy behind it. And with that, may come conflict. The moon's South Pole is not a big place. There are limited locations where the sun hits the rim of a crater just right to create the ideal conditions for a sustained moon base. And NASA isn't the only space program eyeing the same small patch of lunar real estate. China has its own ambitions for a permanent lunar research station, described as an international collaborative effort and intended to

support long-term robotic and eventually crude operations on the moon. And they are looking at the same place NASA is for the same reasons. Resources and sunlight. Meanwhile, commercial players are pursuing their own, even more ambitious visions for the lunar South Pole entirely independent of any single national space agency. For example, SpaceX has aspirations for a lunar city designed to expand and become increasingly self-sufficient over time rather than remaining a small fixed research station indefinitely. It's no coincidence that everyone wants the same land. And with major gaps still remaining in international policy governing lunar resources, simply

getting there first may dictate who sets the rules and who gets the resources. This truly may be a second space race with high stakes indeed. And as with many geopolitical discussions, weapons may not be far from the table. One piece of proposed lunar technology that's drawn a lot of attention from security analysts recently is what's called the electromagnetic mass driver. Essentially, SpaceX is looking to build a magnetic catapult on the moon. It works by using a long track of electromagnets, similar to the technology behind maglev trains on Earth, to accelerate an object at very high speed using magnetic fields alone,

rather than burning rocket fuel. On the moon, with its lower gravity and absence of atmosphere to create drag, a sufficiently long electromagnetic track could, in principle, accelerate cargo or even fully assembled satellites to lunar escape velocity and beyond, launching them into space without ever burning a drop of rocket fuel. But as genuinely exciting as that idea may be from a purely engineering and economic standpoint, there's a catch. A 2026 security analysis published by the American Foreign Policy Council pointed out that, fundamentally, a device designed to accelerate and launch objects at high velocities is inherently dual-use. As in, not only could it

launch satellites or cargo, it could also launch weapons from a worryingly unstoppable, undetectable platform. The report identifies several categories of concern. First is kinetic energy impactors, dense objects launched at extremely high velocity, which, due to the sheer energy involved in that speed, can cause damage roughly comparable to an explosive weapon without needing any explosive material at all, because the destructive force comes purely from velocity and mass. Second, anti-satellite weapons. The same launch capability could be used to threaten or destroy the growing number of satellites that modern life from communications to navigation to weather forecasting is deeply dependent upon.

Third and most seriously, the report raises the theoretical possibility of using such a system to launch nuclear payloads. Modern nuclear armed nations maintain extensive, sophisticated early warning systems designed to detect the distinctive heat signature and trajectory of a conventional rocket launch, whether from land, sea, or air, giving crucial minutes of warning time. But a launch originating from the lunar surface using electromagnetic acceleration rather than fuel would not trigger those same detection signatures.

This would be a whole new level of threat, and whoever controlled it could wield great power over essentially the entire planet. But it isn't just SpaceX looking at this technology. The same report notes that China is also pursuing the development of its own lunar magnetic launcher concept. Given the high stakes, the report recommended that the United States pursue an aggressive, sustained, permanent presence specifically at the lunar south pole in order to establish strategic control. As you can see, the moon base may serve multiple purposes, both scientific and strategic, and both of these stories can be true at the same time. For more than 50 years, humans on the moon has meant a handful of

extraordinary but brief visits. But soon, it could mean much more. We have a blueprint for staying. We've chosen the location, and the first steps are already well underway to send robotic scouts ahead of us. By the early 2030s, we may have humans living on the moon full-time. Going somewhere as extraordinary as another world was never going to be simple or free of difficult questions. It's going to involve innovative engineering, international cooperation, and almost certainly genuine tension. It has to be carefully and thoughtfully navigated. But, here's what I keep coming back to and what I hope you'll

take away from this, too. For the very first time in human history, we have a plan, not just a dream, a plan to venture beyond our own planet for more than just a visit. And that, I think, is incredible. If you've ever watched an Astrum video and found yourself pausing just to take in the beauty of space, you're not alone. The colors, the motion, the scale, they remind us how vast and awe-inspiring the universe really is. Have you ever had your breath taken away when seeing these videos of our sun, Milky Way, or perhaps Venus? Well, now Patreon members have access to these wallpapers for your phone and laptop. Sign up with the link below.

It's a simple way to bring that sense of wonder into your daily life while supporting future Astrum creations.