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Last month you were a little bit pissed off because Kevin Worsh comes out and he raises the rates and you were furious. We had to kind of calm you down. We got you cups of coffee. We got you all this stuff to come. We brought you different bottles of wine. But Tom's like, "Worsh made a mistake. You shouldn't have raised the rates because you just don't do that, right?" Anyways, then the report comes out today and inflation. Uh Tom, why don't you tell the audience what happened with inflation going up and I know you have your opinions on it and we'll hash it out here together, but go for it. Okay. just in the last hour. So what we're talking about, you may see headlines America in the last hour. The jobs report was expected to be about 85
89,000 and they also expected inflation to be about 4.1%. This report comes out every month and here we are September 2nd. So here comes the reports October 2nd, excuse me, it's October 2nd. Here comes the report for September. It comes out and it was 29,000 jobs, not 8589. So that's 60,000 less means jobs cooling and they said unemployment went from 4.1 where it had been for a couple months I think three months in a row it's been 4.1 it went to 4.2 two. That's a very minor uptick. Unemployment went up. Unemployment, right? So inflation went what? What direction did inflation go? I think you're talking about inflation.
No, no, the unemployment ramp 41 to 42. So those two things were in the jobs report. And so everyone was cheering this morning because what this means is that the Fed had said they were going to raise rates in October. And by the way, you know, the Fed meeting was actually three weeks ago that I was so upset. And now the next Fed meeting is like right in front of us, Pat. October 28th, 29th. So, it's coming up quick in exactly four weeks. And so, this morning, the bonds went down and the market went up in response to this. And people are saying this now puts pressure on the Fed to not raise rates again because they said they're going to raise them in October. And I don't think he should have raised
them last time. But this data says don't do it again. And that and there's a lot of people, including me, that are happy about this. Yeah. And I this now gives you the moral authority to push on worship and say look if unemployment is going in this direction now you got to lower the rates because his argument was inflation right because I think inflation went up correct it rose 2% for the month uh and 3% year-over-year and that's his biggest trigger Tom if I'm not mistaken and but people like me are fighting on that I say it's because of diesel the diesel that's 650 by the way over the weekend it was 8005 I double
checked in California they have those extra taxes. It was 805 diesel. So to deliver Amazon, to take strawberries from the field to the market, anything that diesel does, it inflates the price in our economy, but it's not sector inflation, it's a shock of the of oil and the supply. So that's I call that not real inflation because as soon as you can get diesel back down, everything else comes back down. And Worse looked at it and said it was full inflation. There's my debate on Okay, Adam, your thoughts on this? Well, look, I just want to compare the United States unemployment rate to the rest of the world because sometimes it'll give you just context as to how are we doing because I actually believe that the
economy is pretty stable and especially regarding compared to other countries all the world around the world. So, let me give you this. Uh, so United States unemployment rate is around 4%. Give or take, right? We're not getting to 4.1 four 4.2 they say. So, here's compared to other countries around the world. Just a little context right here. You ready? Australia 4.6%. United Kingdom 5%. India 5% Brazil 5.3 China if you even believe their numbers 5.4%. Canada who's you know going to f around and find out with America with their little uh trade tiff 6 and a half%. Turkey the great Ottoman Empire out there almost 8%. France 8% woke and weird out there. South Africa when we're talking G20 countries 33%. So there's
very few countries, Mexico 3% and Germany 4% that are even on America's level. So let's give some context here. America's doing pretty damn good compared to all the major G20 countries around the world. But you know the average person is going to sit there and say, "But we're America. It's not just about we're doing better than them. We're we're the greatest country in the world. We have to be crushing it better than everybody. That doesn't mean we're not immune from situations economy. Sure. But what I'm telling you is a lot of folks are going to sit there and say, "Hey, that's not us. We got to do better." And some people are still feeling what's going on today in the marketplace. How long that lasts, who
knows? But I'm I'm convinced, Tom, I don't think they'll be raising rates in the next time around when it comes back. Tom, I think it's going to be a flat. I don't think they'll Tom, are you listening, Tom? I'm I'm looking at you. So, they're not going to be raising rates. Stay. I know you're watching the content as well. I don't think they'll raise a rates next time. I think they'll stay flat with us next time. I think it'll be a decision that you see numbers like this gives favor to guys like you to say, "Now pump the brakes." Now, here's a question. What's the likelihood you think he'll lower the rates next time?
Um, not great because the jobs report has happened now and the meeting is on the 28th, 29th of October and we don't have any major reports coming out. So unless someone like an auto industry has three big companies make layoff reports in the month of October, he doesn't have the data that would push him to lower it. He only has, you know, people like me pushing, you know, um, hard and Dr. J strategy pushing hard, you know, on this side of it. There's not push too hard, Tom. No, no, but there's no data. The next jobs report doesn't come out for October till like November 4th. I'll give you a little uh So Pat, that's the answer. I don't think I think he could keeps flat. He'll be forced to, but I don't think he can go down.
There's something called the CME Fed Watch that agrees with basically what you're saying. They're basically saying the next time that there's a Fed meeting, the odds are, if you look at Kelshi as well, they're going to skip an increase in October, so keep things stable. And then in December, there's a 60% probability of a potential rate hike. So brace for impact. Winter is coming. Just shout out to Vinnie. Rates may go up by the end of the year again. Again, they may go up. That's what they're saying. 60% chance in December. 60% in December. Okay. We'll see. We'll see what's going to happen. We got a special announcement for you. If you notice why I'm wearing the jacket here,
this beautiful jacket that on the back it says faith over fear. I want my friend to my left, your right, Vincent Oshana, to tell you about this jacket. Go. Thank you, Pat. So, guys, we had this jacket for insiders only at the vault and they were sold. I think they sold in two days. I called you. I'm like, Vinnie, let's go have lunch. You're like, Pat, I can't. Everybody wants this jacket. Everybody was buying this jacket. So, I want to let you guys know it. The front of it has our crest. We have the uh the
the lion crest here as well. And on the back, guys, like our hat say faith over fear. And this is kind of small. This is letting people know right off the jump. Faith over fears on the back. That's sick. Is that ridiculous? with Hebrews 11:1 on the back. The inside of the jacket, it has all of our uh am I'm telling you right now, how warm is it? We're talking about winter. Be real. It's freaking warm in this thing. I love it. So guys, and everybody was asking. So, and I'm telling you guys right now, limited supply. We only have a hundred 100. And they're going to go like that.
I'm What? A guy came up to you. What did he An atheist. I'm I'm I'm outside. Adam's inside the store talking to people, taking photos. A guy goes out to wearing the jacket. HE'S LIKE, VINNIE, OH my god. He goes, "Listen, I'm going to be honest with you. I'm I'm not a big believer. I believe in some spiritual something. I'm basically an atheist, but I had to rock the jacket because I love how it looks. An atheist bought this jacket and Adam was there. Adam's my witness. So anyway, guys, go right now to flb.com uh and get yours. I'm almost positive this is going to be gone by the time the
show is over. And by the way, if you do it right, get the hat and the shirt with it to have the entire combination, the white shirt that goes with it and kind of like Vinnie right now, the white shirt, the jacket and the hat. Go to flb.com. Less than a hundred of these jackets left, especially by sizes. If you enjoyed this video, you want to watch more videos like this, click here. And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.
