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So, they say, we are in for a super El Niño, or "Godzilla." Perhaps this will be the most powerful phenomenon that man has ever seen on the planet. Probably the worst in a thousand years, but the question is, what the hell does that mean? I'm here to explain it simply, without long videos and without fear-mongering with the title, so that you can understand it and tell your friends. El Niño is essentially just a pattern of warming waters in the Pacific Ocean. This model goes through phases of warming and cooling, which are normal and expected, although they vary in strength and alternate approximately every two to seven years. La Niña
is when temperatures fall more than 0.5 °C below average for a long time, and El Niño is when they rise more than 0.5°C above average. The reason this El Niño is getting so much attention is because it just broke the record for the highest temperature ever recorded by the phenomenon, and its potential peak is still months away. In this graph, the red line shows how warm this El Niño is compared to previous records. At the time of this video, we are approximately 3.08°C above average, exceeding the peak values of all other years on record. There was a massive El Niño in 1877, even before satellite data became available, causing an estimated 50 million deaths, and modern scientific models predict that temperatures were more than 3.5°C above average.
This current El Niño is predicted to reach about 4°C above average. But what does all this really mean? For example, what does warm water do during an El Niño period? And should we expect so many deaths? Normally, trade winds in the Pacific Ocean push warm water westward toward Asia, and as that water moves, colder water rises from below, replacing it near South America. But during El Niño periods, these trade winds weaken, and warm water instead begins to move eastward toward both Americas. This movement of warm water heats the air above it, changing atmospheric pressure patterns, and can ultimately affect weather systems around the world because everything is interconnected. For example, it affects jet streams, which are essentially large rivers of air moving
through the atmosphere. And this, in turn, affects storms and droughts across the globe. During El Niño, the West Coast of the United States and places like Peru and Chile are likely to see more rainfall and storms, which can lead to flooding and landslides. Unprecedented extreme heat and wildfires in regions such as Indonesia, Australia and South Africa are possible against a backdrop of droughts in places such as the Amazon, Central America and the Sahel, which could lead to large-scale cascading effects. The waters off the coast of Peru are usually one of the most productive fishing areas in the world, but the high surface temperatures force anchovies to seek food at depths where it is cooler, but much more difficult to catch them there. As
a result, this year the Peruvian government closed the anchovy fishing season early, which obviously has serious consequences both locally and internationally. Interestingly, while El Niño typically produces fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic -in fact, we already set a record of no hurricanes in the Atlantic as of mid-September-the Pacific coast is likely in for a much more active hurricane season. Overall, this fundamentally changes the dynamics across the planet. In 2023, researchers estimated that an average El Niño would cause $3.4 trillion in losses to the global economy over the next five years. And that's just the average El Niño.
Current projections for this El Niño predict around 450,000 deaths from the heat alone and 50 million people on the brink of acute hunger. This is in addition to the already existing effects of the climate crisis, and 2027 is likely to be a record- breaking hot year. And that's not to mention the impact on wildlife or the environment in general. It is important to note that El Niño is not a product of climate change. It occurs naturally, but is superimposed on a planet already suffering from record-breaking temperatures. It's almost like steroids added to the warming caused by climate change. And recent studies do suggest that global warming is intensifying El Niño cycles. So no, the world won't explode, as some
headlines might lead you to believe, but we will likely see a period of more extreme weather conditions: fires, floods, etc. And even if you live in an area that is relatively unaffected by major disasters, the indirect effects on food supply chains, food security, inflation, and the availability of goods are likely to affect everyone. In addition, it may be a glimpse into our future, raising temperatures to the level that the climate crisis is predicted to cause in 20 years. Although this El Niño will eventually subside, we will still be left with an ever- warming planet and the consequences of the continued burning of fossil fuels. I know this kind of information can be exhausting and pessimistic, but for me personally, understanding how
things work helps to eliminate the unnecessary exaggeration and fear that can arise from all these news headlines. So I hope this brings you some peace and understanding, despite the not-so-bright outlook. Thanks for watching, as always. Like and subscribe, see you soon for a new portion of science. Peace be upon you.
