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I caught up with former Prime Minister Scott Morrison for an exclusive interview about Australia's anti-b businessiness climate, the worrying economic outlook, how the Iran war will impact on Trump in the midterms, and how the Liberals should deal with the rise of One Nation. Here's our chat. Scott Morrison, thank you so much for your time. Really appreciate it. Now you've written a fascinating column on the Iran war and you start with this interesting point that this began over their nuclear program but now it's being fought as well over the straight of Hormuz. I mean how does this conflict get resolved when as you point out there have already been seven deescalation announcements?
Not easily and perhaps not at all. Um I think that's you know what's emerging. it is become a bit of a stalemate and what is acutely in focus now is the impact that the Iranians leverage over the strait is doing to oil prices and how that's impacting I would say non US economies more so than in the US itself and particularly in Asia um and that is playing out it's playing out on fuel prices even in the US and with midterms approaching well that has now become the focus of trying to get that waterway open now what I suspect will continue to happen is what we've seen. I think we're going to keep seeing more of the same until either side is able to achieve a rather significant breakthrough in either getting the other to step back um or
indeed one is able to compel the other which is the approach the United States will ultimately I suspect have to take and that is an escalation of the conflict. President Trump made it very clear initially that he only saw this as a short war, but now it's expected to impact the midterms and it's already impacted his standing in the polls. But ultimately, Iran can't just be allowed to control the straight of Hormuz, can it? No, it can't. And this is the rather difficult situation the president finds himself in. And you're right, the midterms, you know, some months ago, the idea that the Senate majority was at risk, I don't think was a realistic threat. And it is now in play.
And what's really changed for the president there is, yes, Iran has an impact. But it's the cost of living just like it is here and in most Western democracies. And it's how this conflict plays in to that cost of living issue and particularly at the pump price. Now, ironically, the economic impact on the pump price is not as great in the US as it is, say here or in particularly in Asia. Um, the US is a bit more insulated from that as a major producer of oil. And but at the same time, you know, this will still filter through and this will mean that the president will keep trying, I think, to deescalate what's happening around the strait and get some of those supplies out um while at the
same time keeping the pressure on the overall conflict and not giving away something that is absolutely fundamental. Look, just showing how deadly serious this is and the great risk that the IRGC poses. Uh there have been breaking news reports this afternoon that there was a credible threat that Iran planned to shoot down Air Force One with a surfaceto-air missile with President Trump on board and this led to his dramatic evacuation. We're talking about an apocalyptic terrorist regime that doesn't play by anybody's rules other than their own who has been calling for the death to America for 49 years. And so I don't think there's any great surprise that they would take try to take out their
president. They've not the first time they've been trying to take out US presidents for years. I mean, there has to be a day of reckoning for Iran and this president has been seeking to bring that, but it's a very difficult thing to do. And those who argue he's doing it for politics, well, I think the evidence says the opposite to that. He is doing it at great political cost. Um, and I think that shows his genuiness about his stand on this issue on the economy. The big picture is that interest rates are rising. And Scott, you remember how Labour blamed that one interest rate rise on you? I mean, now, how many have they been under their watch? Some 15. And of course, it's not their fault. Inflation remains high,
well above the target of 2 to 3%. The housing market is now imploding as a result of Labour's tax policies. This sort of outlook, how worrying do you think this is? Well, Australia because of our history and where we sit, you know, aa rated economy, um, all of this gives us some resilience to what is happening globally, but it's it's not a free pass. And our trip mean inflation figure is stubbornly sitting u where it is above the uh above the target rate. And with the bank saying yesterday that they're not expecting to see that change until late next year, I think says to those on mortgages that don't expect a rate cut anytime soon. And if anything, um, they stand at the ready, I think, to
put things up. Ironically, probably the only thing that's prevented them from doing that is the devastation wrecky owners by what happened in the main budget. Um, what is really driving inflation in Australia has really not a lot to do with Gulf, particularly the core inflation. The RBA made the point yesterday that immigration is one of the only factors holding up our economic growth. Do you think there is a case to bring down this big Australia that Albanesey brought in? Well, it's it's careering along and has for the last few years because they've just let it run loose. That's my observation.
Um and as a result, um the net overseas migration figure has hit, you know, remarkable levels. Now, early on you can you could say that there was some pent-up demand following CO when we literally shut the borders um and as a result there was some um catchup, but you know, it's it's years and years since that now. And when you've got a net overseas migration rate which is running well over 200,000 then you can expect these pressures. You know you can't force them to go and live on as permanent migrants anywhere else in the rest of the country. We did quite a number of things to have temporary um migration visas tied to being in particular parts of the country. Um but the government completely changed that
definition and made that pretty much everywhere. So it blunted its effectiveness. Um but in Australia I think like in most western democracies you know migration plays an important role but it has to do it behind strong borders which are well policed and well enforced which is what operation sovereign borders was all about. And then you got to have a migration program which runs to rules and is focused on one thing your economy and the other things we've seen particularly in the most recent budget. you know, sadly, you know, these are the things that, you know, are really dampening the entrepreneurial spirit. I, you know, operate in the private sector now and I see it myself. Um, people are actively thinking about if I'm going to
start a business, should I be doing it here? Should I base myself in Singapore? Should I base myself in New Zealand? Should I base myself in the United States? I've been involved in a company myself which has had to do that in order to get ahead. Um so Australia has starts with a lot of advantages and those advantages are being eroded away. When you just said that you were involved in a company yourself, do you mean that your company had to move offshore? Yeah, we were doing things here and uh and our CEO and founder has gone over there. Um that's you know that's where the contracts are and uh that's I mean when you look at all the things that you have to do and the compliance
issues and so on it is just getting I mean one of the things that really you know I've moved on and I'm no longer in politics anything like that. So but one of the things that it really I find hard to watch happening is what small business are really struggling under at the moment. I mean we're able to get them through co um whole the vast majority of them. A day doesn't go past when frankly someone doesn't approach me and say well thanks for getting us through and but and they are a lot of those people are small business people. Scott how do you think the Liberal Party should combat the rise of One Nation which is well ahead of it in the polls.
One Nation like most of the populist parties do well um when they capitalize on the dysfunction of the major parties and that's where we've seen all around the world. And if you look at I think what's happened in the UK, you've seen reforms position actually steadily declining now for many months. But it's interesting to see the steady rise that the Tories have had under Kem Badnock. Um where they have been consistent. Uh they have been on the issue of the economy. They haven't focused on reform. They've focused on their own um narrative on the government and on their own economic policies and their own
positions. And I think there are a lot of lessons in that. Um, and I think the UK could prove to be quite um, uh, prophetic uh, in terms of how we see this issue play out. By the way, I didn't even ask you. Are you well? How are you going? I'm I'm great. Loving life. I just need my Sharks to win this weekend. We didn't have such a great outing on the weekend. We were going quite well. So, I'm I'm hoping to see a turnaround this weekend. I'm sure the boys will go well. All right. Well, good luck and thank you so much for your time.
Thanks, Sharon.
