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war is a battle over information and Technology as much as it is about logistics territory and bodies much has been said of the potential mineral deal between the United States and Ukraine the Trump Administration has made it clear that Ukraine must sign this deal in order to secure continued support from the United States they've asserted that this deal is how Ukraine will pay back for all the hundreds of billions of dollars in Aid that's been sent their way with the speed of the new cycle it's impossible to separate the propaganda from the substance all the reporting is big on headlines and light on Nuance numbers are thrown around like candy and Technical names like manganes and
bismuth are tossed in paragraphs like buzzwords the ukrainians Proclaim that they have 13 to 15 trillion dollars worth of these minerals so paying back the billions of dollars to the US that it wants will be easy it's just that they need security guarantees Putin on the other hand asserts that Ukraine's minerals aren't worth as much and if the US really wants them it'll be easier to just buy them straight from Russia ultimately history repeats itself this is not the first modern conflict to spiral into a struggle over natural resources in this modern NBA episode we're diving into the economics of the US Ukraine mineral deal evaluating what parts of it actually have value and drawing parallels between what's
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but never planned for what life would look like on their own in this regard their independence was more of a symbolic Victory as the country was completely unprepared to govern without basic policies or systems like taxation real estate and housing Ukraine struggled through the 1990s business was mostly done through barter meaning that people paid their taxes through Services rather than cash the country was ruled by oligarchs who use their Newfound political power to enrich their own pockets they wielded the rule of law to stifle entrepreneurship encourage corruption and to extract maximum rents from common people all this came to a head in 1999 when Ukraine found itself on the brink of default as the only
postcommunist country with negative economic growth in 10 years performing even worse than Russia the poor state of Ukraine whether qualitative or quantitative painted a clear picture to the UN the EU the IMF and banks that Ukraine could not be trusted to repay the billions of dollars it had borrowed faced with the possibility of total economic collapse the oligarchs quickly stepped aside not for the good of Ukraine but rather as the only means of preserving their own wealth with the country now in the hands of truly democratically elected representatives Ukraine pushed into in reforms through the country eliminating bureaucracy lifting regulations establishing decision-making processes and creating
government programs all in the pursuit of energizing the economy Iron and steel made up the majority of Ukraine's exports but these minerals had proven in the past decade to be insufficient to feeding the country both literally and figuratively during the Soviet Union land was seen as a public good Ukraine's land was fertile it just needed better operators and stronger incentives its new Democratic leaders introduced property rights disbanded state-run farming and trans ered public land back in the hands of private Farmers this privatization opened up unprecedented opportunities for large scale Productions and investors flocked into agriculture fueled by the lowest commercial loans and the promise of
minimal taxation this was all by Design compared to mining farming was faster and less risky because their priority was on growing GDP Ukraine did not allow any sale of farmland for the next 20 years that way the private sector would focus exclusively on production rather than land appreciation by 2019 agriculture in the form of mostly corn wheat fruit and Seed oils had grown from less than 2% to over 25% of Ukraine's exports surpassing the once leading Iron and Steel this focus on agriculture brought Ukraine to better economic health established the country as Europe's bread basket and cemented their value as one of the world's largest suppliers of corn and wheat but despite these rapid improvements Ukraine Still
Remains the poorest country per capita in Europe even before the Russian invasion there's two things that economists point to explain the country's continued struggles Ukraine consistently ranks as one of the most corrupt countries in Europe on the corruption index and scores below even the countries of subsaharan Africa and this is a problem that has plagued the country long before the current Administration the oligarchs never left Ukraine and simply found new ways to enrich themselves under democracy just as they had done under communism the politicians who ran the country happily participated in their schemes since lawmakers had explicit immunity to prosecution a law that zalinsky repealed
when he became president the other factor is foreign investment foreign investment through the 10s for Ukraine was as low as 1% of GDP there was no room for even local entrepreneurship the oligarchs were now agricultural tycoons and had secretly extended their reach into banking instead of helping their own people secure their savings these oligarchs started private Banks to launder money and to siphon cash from the state treasury by issuing themselves generous loans that they never repaid thus when their Banks went belly up so did the savings of tens of thousands of its citizens played with corruption and underinvestment Ukraine was simply incapable of following through on the
capital intensive risky mining of minerals even before the war the deal with the United States in essence is a forcing function for Ukraine to finally tap into these natural resources the prevailing theory in the media is that the mineral deal with Ukraine is the first of many steps that the United States is taking to reduce its Reliance on adversaries like China for these Rare Minerals we can see how plausible this is when we poke at its specifics every country and entity defines its own list of critical minerals the EU has a list of 32 the department of interior has a list of 50 that it deem essential for the US economy and the Department of Defense outlines 58 different minerals
specifically for maintaining American military power there's no master list or even consensus on what minerals are most valuable if we take the intersection of all these different lists we end up with 22 minerals the United States Geological Survey is the federal agency that assesses the availability and consumption of these Rare Minerals every year the key metric they track is net import Reliance where they calculate how much of a specific mineral is imported into the US how much of that same resource exported and then report the net amount imported as a percentage of consumption that same year by factoring in real usage net import Reliance distinguishes if a mineral is just being imported in to be stockpiled versus
being imported in and consumed in production thus the higher the net import Reliance the more dependent the United States is on importing from other countries to meet domestic demand when we chart the 5-year average of net import Reliance of every mineral on our intersecting list we can see that the US is dependent on Foreign imports for 19 out of the 22 minerals the only three minerals that the US is not relying on other countries for are brillium hafnium and lithium relying on Imports by default is not a bad thing no country could have all the resources and minerals that it needs the purpose of globalization is to trade what you have more of in exchange for what you have less of but the point of contention for
the United States is that when you want to be the World Police when you want to hold the biggest stick and you want to dictate to other countries how they should govern or who should be in charge you make enemies and when you depend on your adversaries rather than your allies to supply critical minerals this Perpetual Reliance becomes not just a risk but an unacceptable Achilles heal for the US military industrial complex of the 22 critical minerals on our list the US relies heavily on China to supply eight of them to compensate for the domestic deficit when relationships between the US and China were positive in the early 2010s that dependency was as high as up to 10 minerals on this
list as the relationship between these two countries have deteriorated over the past decade the US has made a concerted effort to import what it needs from allies rather than from China but that has only worked in a few cases for instance Cobalt is used for jet engines batteries and Munitions and the US has been able to successfully swap out China for Norway as their primary supplier derium which is used in infrared nvgs semiconductors and satellites is another case where the US was able to drop China for Belgium as its primary source but for the remainder of these minerals the US is simply unable to wean itself off of China is by and large the only game in town for minerals antimony is
used in night vision goggles nuclear weapons explosives and infrared sensors rare earth metals and elements like itum are used not just in civilian Essentials like GPS smartphones computers and x-ray machines but also in military Necessities like missiles aircraft weapons and submarines in all of these examples China is the largest producer and exporter and has been since the 1990s as the US has levied more tariffs and restrictions onto China in recent years China has responded tit for tap by stopping their supply of these critical minerals to the US China has built their Monopoly and minerals over many decades while the US established its superpower through military might and currency
China has cultivated its influence over the decade primarily through economics it's not that the Chinese somehow lucked out on having all the minerals in their border and everyone else in the world just missed the jackpot despite the advancements in technology mining is a dirty business with far-reaching environmental and social consequences mines in the US rarely get off the ground due to the heavy regulations intense public backlash high risk and low political popularity the only thing worse than a cemetery in someone's backyard is a mine all these factors are why it's been cheaper for the US to Simply Outsource these minerals from other countries who take on all the risk and damage China's ambition to win the
global mineral trade started in the 1990s as they opted to mine first and deal with the consequences second to get ahead they kept regulations lack prioritized output over the environment and turned a blind eye as private operators dump toxic waste into local waterways and communities to China these externalities were the that they were willing to pay for growth the US themselves paid a similar price for rapid industrialization in the 1900s for China giving up water and soil in exchange for mining superiority in the Southeast was ultimately not any different from what they did in the Northeast where they allowed air pollution and exchange for manufacturing dominance over the decades China has transitioned its mineral business away
from private Ventures and towards state-owned Enterprises where output comes before profits regulations are absorbed oversight is internalized projects can be financed overnight by the public Banks and policy can align with production minerals are core to China's geopolitical Ambitions and a key bargaining chip in XI jinping's foreign policy as China has developed they've been able to slowly prioritize their own people and land with their new riches instead of mining more at home they've shifted more production to other countries who are rich in these resources but like Ukraine lack the infrastructure capital or systems to capitalize China regularly makes billion doll deals in Africa where those emerging governments are happy to trade
their resources in exchange for infrastructure and cash they're unable to capitalize on these minerals themselves in the Congo the Chinese have built roads hospitals and the mines themselves in exchange for 68% share in their lithium and Cobalt in Kenya China is building a data center a smart city and fiber internet in exchange for exclusive mining licenses and when the same African countries need money China also provides loans as a creditor and is a faster alternative to the World Bank and IMF foreign investment from China to Africa alone stands at 4% of their GDP and that's something that Ukraine has lacked throughout its own history China can make these deals and take on these projects because the mining Banking and
construction are all state-owned so the speed at which the Chinese can build and the timelines that they're willing to wait for returns is unmatched infrastructure rather than cash is ultimately more valuable to these developing countries who suffer from corruption like Ukraine the United States has donated comparable billions in foreign aid to Africa year after year but do so without that transactional capitalist mindset and it's ultimately China who has something to show for what they've put in China has maintained control of the global mineral trade by importing the raw inputs from Africa refining them at home and then selling the finished outputs to the rest of the world Africa performs the extraction
supplies the bodies and Bears all the externalities while China builds the infrastructure and creates the long-term Edge China controls Supply and by extension controls price what Ukraine won't admit is that even if their minerals are truly worth the 12 to 15 trillion that their government claims the specific minerals that they do possess will not actually help reduce American depend dependence on Chinese minerals in the world of mining there's a difference between deposits and reserves a deposit means that there's an above average concentration of a mineral at this location but more Studies have to be performed samples have to be taken and the site has to be further surveyed in order to assess feasibility Beyond
regulations a deposit could look very promising but could be unviable if the location is too remote if the market price of that mineral Falls if the mineral concentration turns out to be too low or if the size of the deposit is too small to sustain the next 10 to 30 years that a mine is expected to run for a deposit can only be called a reserve after it's been verified to be economically and technologically viable but even reserves are not guaranteed more Studies have to be conducted and still everything in the mining world is an estimate nothing is certain until the drilling starts despite this Nuance Ukraine has continued to Hype up the value of its minerals to the media who
can't be bothered to research the difference between deposits and reserves the only way to perform objective analysis is to go through their claims at face value Ukraine says they have about 14,000 res reserves of brillium burum is stronger than steel and lighter than aluminum making it the material of choice for fighter planes targeting systems and Communications but 60% of the world's brillium is located in the United States the number of reserves in the state of Utah alone exceeds that of Ukraine the US is the leading producer and exporter of brillium at 190 tons per year which has over doubled the production of the second biggest player because of America's domestic production
Ukraine's brillium is not strategic to the US Ukraine alleges that they have 140 million tons of manganes reserves but that's also not strategic the US gets its manganes from Gabon its Ally in central Africa in exchange for this decade long flow of manganes and oil the US has turned a blind eye towards gabon's regimes and stayed out of the way of its country's dictators lithium is arguably the most recognizable and in demand of minerals as lithium batteries power everything from smartphones to electric vehicles Ukraine claims to have a third of Europe's lithium deposits at 500,000 tons but deposits are not reserved so that means even under the best case scenario where the mining does
start only a subset of this 500,000 can ever be extracted the US Imports most of its lithium from Chile and Argentina and has been able to Source enough from these two allies for the past 30 years even with the increase in demand while the US does not mine lithium the country has already committed $3 billion under Biden to increase domestic Mining and processing capabilities for lithium alone but ahead of Chile and Argentina is Australia who holds the seed as the world's largest exporter of lithi with the world's three largest lithium producers being key American Allies and no actually verified reserves Ukraine's lithium might as well not exist their lithium in time may be useful to their
Eastern European neighbors who might value proximity over price but even in the most optimistic timeline the 10 to 15 years it would get a mine up and running the market value of lithium itself will likely change with skyrocketing demand and the global push toward EVS the universal Focus for all World governments these days from the East to the West is to get more out of recycling lith ium batteries rather than mining the raw lithium in perpetuity Ukraine also claims to have 9,000 tons of cobalt deposits but this doesn't mean anything when the main suppliers for the US are entrenched allies like Norway Finland Japan and Canada Ukraine also reports that they have Rare Earth deposits in the East but eastern Ukraine
is Russia occupied territories and the deposits have never been verified like lithium and Cobalt before estimating yield from deposits is dangerous no geologist or minor would ever take any of these figures being tossed around at face value whether that's in dollars or tons there are really only three minerals that Ukraine claims to have that are actually realistic in titanium graphite and Gallum before the Russian invasion in 2022 Ukraine was the world's fourth largest exporter of titanium lagging behind only the African countries titanium is used in armor boats engines helicopters and spacecraft Ukraine already possesses both the mines and refineries to extract and process
titanium so all they have to do postwar is to scale that to new locations the US has historically leaned on UK TR through the past decade to be a secondary supplier of titanium After Japan then there's graphite which the US doesn't mind domestically but consumes in tens of thousands of metric tons every year graphite is also used in batteries artillery tanks and body armor the only supplier in the past 30 years who has been able to meet American demand has been China and Ukraine had been scaling before the war to be the go-to supplier of graphite for Europe Ukraine's verified reserves of 19 million tons puts it in the top five and lastly there's gallium which is used in semiconduct c s LEDs wind turbines solar
panels and surface to air missiles China accounts for over 95% of gallion production in the world and there's little room for anyone else to compete but as the US has sought to reduce its dependence on China over the past few years Ukraine has been able to fill that demand and solidified itself before The Invasion as the third largest supplier of gallium of the 37 critical minerals that Ukraine boasts it has it's only these three that have proven production verified potential and strategic value for the West to be worth that 10 to 20 years of post-war investment every other mineral can be supplied today in Greater quantities by a more stable non-chinese Ally ultimately these minerals are not
rare in their existence but rare in that there's only a few countries that are willing to do the Dirty Work to get it out of the earth even the US government knows that most of Ukraine's minerals are not worth anywhere close to the trillions that Ukraine States the current Arrangement as reported is that the US would make 50% of every dollar that Ukraine makes off of mining these futural mineral deposits and reserves any money that Ukraine gets from its current Minds is not part of the deal but the heart of the deal is in cash not minerals which implies a low confidence if the US believed Ukraine was this Treasure Trove of minerals they would be pushing for deals like China has with
Africa where American companies either get exclusive licenses first dibs on reserves and or direct equity in the mines themselves once they're built but at the end of the day Ukraine just doesn't have anything else to offer the agricultural Commodities that serve as the backbone of Ukraine's modern economy in corn wheat and sunflower oil are not valuable as the US is already entrenched as the world's largest producer of corn and top five when it comes to wheat when we dig further there are more hard truths to both Mining and the present condition of Ukraine that make this mineral deal feel even more like fantasy it takes on average 18 years to get a mine up and running and
maybe we can shave off two to four years assuming that the Ukrainian government in a post-war environment would most likely expedite these projects and cut regulations but that's still a Time Horizon of 14 to 16 years mining is an expensive Endeavor as the average cost to take a single site from exploration into production is hundreds of millions of dollars mines also require tremendous energy to power all the machinery and equipment given that Ukraine's power grd has been bombed to the point that they're importing electricity to keep lights on and to keep heat running the country's energy infrastructure would have to be rebuilt before these mines can even start roughly 40% of the mineral deposits that Ukraine counts in
its $15 trillion estimate is located in Eastern Ukraine where the land is currently occupied by Russia or is infested with landmines regardless of whether not that occupied territories return to Ukraine someone would have to clear and Safeguard these areas so that the geologists scientists and miners can operate in peace even if the deposits turn out to be fruitful these risks around safety security and energy will all ultimately translate into more costs that add onto an already daunting price tag the elephant in the room that's not covered in this deal is who's actually going to do the mining even if Russia and Ukraine reach a peace deal who's actually going to foot this bill it's
certainly not the ukrainians the zalinsky administration is hoping oping that the promise of untapped trillions will be enough to sell American investors and mining companies on these opportunities in their Ideal World American miners would bring modern Equipment Technology and capital that the Ukraine mining industry has lacked for decades and along the way by building these mines they'll be able to create employment and tax opportunities that would be critical for Ukraine's post-war economy and by involving American businesses they could have American civilians and assets on Ukrainian soil which would also on paper help deter future attacks from Russia while it's understandable why the Ukrainian government would think this way it still doesn't change that this is
not just unrealistic but naive mining is privatized in America the US government can't force companies to go to Ukraine and put money in if they don't want to and no San company would throw their money into Ukraine with so many unknowns for Western mining companies investing in Ukraine is simply unappealing when there's safer more wellestablished reserves that are available domestically at a fraction of the cost and risk since the US is now openly funding and encouraging domestic production to further secure mineral indep pend from China there's more than enough incentives to pursue mines at home before running over to Ukraine as a result the mineral deal under a cynical lens is meaningless staking a claim on
the first $500 billion in Mineral sales is pointless when there's no one even in place to execute ironically this capitalist angle is where China uniquely shines China like it's done in Africa could single-handedly demand this Revenue sharing commit to the work and still have the patience to wait decades before seeing a return on their investment but the most worrying factor is that everyone's under understanding today of Ukraine's mineral wealth is all based on 50-year-old surveys that were performed by the Soviet Union because we know from earlier how much work Ukraine had to do to survive since the 1990s following up on these mineral deposits has rightfully never been a priority for
their government there's been no further studies of these deposits and locations since the 1960s and 1980s which adds even more risk and uncertainty as to whether or not these minerals even exist in the diversity quantities and valuation that the Ukrainian government claims history repeats itself and this is not the first modern conflict to stem from or to spiral into a struggle over natural resources Ukraine is not the first country to weave these unverifiable claims of untapped wealth to lure post-war investment the world today is chasing these metals and minerals to power EVS Electronics semiconductors chips and batteries but decades ago the fight was over oil the
biggest Wars of the past decade in the Persian Gulf War the American invasion of Afghanistan and the invasion of Iraq were all about oil and what transpired there have ultimately shaped what's happening now in the Russo Ukrainian War contrary to popular belief the US didn't personally profit from any of these wars Bush senior and Bush Jr did not insert Exxon Mobile and Chevron into Iraq Kuwait and Afghanistan after overthrowing the Taliban and Saddam Hussein as mentioned before the US wields its power through military and currency after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 9s there was no one left in the world that had the strength to go head-to-head against the US the Vietnam War and Korean war in Prior
decades had clearly demonstrated to lawmakers that dropping bombs and marching troops was also no guarantee of success the dollar has been the primary currency of the world for nearly 80 years the US dollar dominates in foreign exchange transactions as most Commodities are priced in dollars most trade is done through dollars and most foreign countries hold dollars to hedge fluctuations in their own currency given how Central the US dollar is to the global economy the United States enjoys a privilege not just in the reach and purchase power but also an influence if you want to be a part of this global economy you need access to Dollars and when you use dollars you involve American Banks this gives the US a
centralized power and they get to decide who does and who does not get to take part in international trade in this modern era the US has progressively relied more on economic coercion rather than military strength to advance its geopolitical interests sanctions are cheaper than military action the number of sanctions imposed on foreign countries and entities have increased by 900% in the past 20 years and countries like Iran Cuba Venezuela Syria North Korea and Russia have all been excluded from the global economy they serve as a warning for smaller countries to follow what the US wants For Better or Worse to preserve the power of the dollar and to maintain leadership in the International
Financial system the US has a vested interest in keeping the global economy humming and that was put to a test in the 1990s the world economy then was almost run exclusively on oil everyone needed it used it and the US was the largest consumer of petrolium the United States gets most of its oil from its neighbors in Canada and Mexico and only a small slice from the Middle East the vast majority of oil that's produced in the Middle East is not exported West but instead flows East traveling through the waters of the Persian Gulf and the straight of Hormuz to supply Europe and Asia Saddam Hussein was an expansionist surrounded by fellow petrol states he viewed his neighbors as his competitors
as their production levels directly impacted Iraq's oil revenues he attacked Iran and invaded Kuwait with the aim of seizing their oil fields and establishing Iraq as the dominant power in the region just like what China does today with minerals Saddam knew that if he could control Supply he could control price his attacks destabilized the entire region and Saudi Arabia a long-standing American Ally feared that they would be next to be invaded there was mounting Global concern that oil production in the Middle East would fall into the hands of someone as hostile unstable and unpredictable as Saddam Hussein and in this situation sanctions would be useless the Middle East alone
produces over a third of the world's oil and holds nearly 50% of the world's reserves so even if the petroleum from the Middle East doesn't flow to the US it fuels the other countries that the US depends on like China India Germany and Japan by this point in the 1990s the world had already experienced multiple oil shocks through the70s where Middle East oil shortages directly caused recessions across the West everyone not just the United States was acutely aware of what was at stake if Saddam Hussein was to take control of the entire region if he were to limit or pause oil exports entirely it could mean a collapse of the entire world economy the stakes were so high that over 40 countries rallied
together with the United States to fight back against Saddam Hussein and that even included the neutral swedes and Norwegians far off Nations like Japan Spain and South Korea even contributed men and money to the war effort as even they had something to lose the oil had to keep flowing this in effect was why the Persian Gulf War was so effective and so short in 6 months this 42 country Coalition had liberated Kuwait kicked Saddam back to Iraq restored the Middle East to its prior State and maintained the flow of oil thereby ensuring the stability of the world economy but things took a turn in the early 2000s with 9/11 the focus spiraled from oil and economics into terrorism and democracy with the US invasion of Afghanistan while Iraq
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are oil States Afghanistan is landlocked and their economy is mostly driven by Agriculture and opium after overthrowing the Taliban the US soon discovered that winning and ruling are not the same thing The Invasion had turned Afghanistan into a zombie state where the economy was in worse shape than before the conflict had devolved into Guerilla Warfare and the new government had little influence amongst its people the US committed to help rebuild Afghanistan sending progressively more troops equipment supplies and foreign aid over the decades but after years of efforts Afghanistan was no better off than it was before and the country constantly relied on cash infusions from the US IMF
and the World Bank along with other countries to fund its domestic projects there was also a growing suspicion from the US that most of the money was disappearing into the pockets of corrupt officials and even into the pockets of Hamed Karai the same president that the US had handpicked to lead this new democracy it became clear that continued handouts were not actually helping Afghanistan but there was little else the country had to offer Beyond Poppy and grapes it was in 2007 when the US discovered that Afghanistan had potentially a trillion dollars worth of rare mineral deposits these huge deposits of iron copper Cobalt Gold and lithium if extracted and exported could turn Afghanistan into a mineral
Powerhouse and supercharge their economy into sustainability the problem that Afghanistan ran into just like what the US and Ukraine are facing today is who's actually going to extract these minerals out of the ground and turned them into real dollars hammed Karai traveled around the world selling this mineral project to anyone who would listen he flew as far as Japan proclaiming to the Japanese that Afghanistan was ready to award them priority Mining rights ahead of the Americans if Mitsubishi would take on this work the Japanese expectedly declined this offer while the US valued Afghanistan's mineral deposits at $1 trillion carai continually insisted that the more accurate number was 3 trillion no different from the
funny math that Ukraine is doing today to attract investment but given that the US government was too preoccupied with Iraq and Isis to care the Afghans had no mining expertise Beyond coal the country was still relying on electricity Imports for power foreigners were regularly being taken hostage and Taliban insurgents were attacking civilians and Military alike the opportunity was simply a tough sell at the end it was only China who was willing to take on this project they committed $3.4 billion in 2008 to develop Afghanistan's largest copper deposit at mesh aoch there was also interest in the site from Russia and two mining companies from North America but in the end carai went with China who promised the most money and
least contingencies China not only outbid the competition by billion dollars but also committed to building coal generators Railways and towns to power the future copper mine on its own dime which the privatized Canadians Americans and Russians were unable to match but in the 18 years since this deal was signed not a single bit of copper has been mined from moch the project has been continuing delayed over Safety and Security the only progress today has been the paving of a single small access road that leads into the site which was only done last year the Taliban who are now back in charge of Afghanistan are desperate to resume this project for funds under American sanctions and have provided guarantees
to the Chinese that they will protect their workers at the mine ultimately the same story has played out in Iraq it's China not the US who have capitalized China has continually won bids to develop Iraq's oil fields and as of today has seven times the market share of the US for petroleum projects in the country despite the best efforts of the Iraqi government to appeal to American investors it's only the Chinese who are willing to overlook all the risks and to bring more than cash to the table while American companies sit on the sidelines concerned with safety corruption and profit timelines just like Afghanistan before and Ukraine today the US can't force American companies to do what it
wants at the same time the value of the Middle East to the US has diminished over time hydraulic fracturing has not only allowed the US to extract oil at home but it has also cemented the nation as the world's largest producer of crude oil for the past six years with strong domestic oil production the US has had increasingly Less Reason to remain involved in the Middle East and this has provided past presidents with the rationale for Swift exits from Afghanistan and Iraq all of these past conflicts have shaped the American government's thinking process as it relates to present day Ukraine American lawmakers are significantly more sensitive about making sure that they get something back for what they're putting in rather than walking away with
total losses like they did with Iraq and Afghanistan the notion of investing in another armed conflict and getting nothing in return for what's put in stings especially when China is always there in the aftermath signing deals and growing its influence whether it's fair for private companies to be bidding against state-owned Enterprises and whether or not American hegemony is truly still necessary in this Modern Age are all debates that are best left to others ultimately history repeats itself and the Ukraine us mineral deal is not any different from the Afghan mineral deal from 18 years ago and the Iraqi oil projects from 12 years ago unless the US nationalizes mining the same issue will
always remain deals are meaningless without execution and the real winners will always be the ones who can do the work
