15:05
Well, well, well, well, well, well. Here we go, folks. It looks like and we still have to make sure everything gets tea crossed and eyes dotted, but it looks like the market is reacting to really big enthusiasm about a deal. I got to run out of the door in a few minutes here. I actually shouldn't even be streaming right now. But this is great news because what's happening now and we're going to go through the news is we are getting a broadening finally in the market on news of this deal. We could see that the cues the NASDAQ 100 is up. But what even happened before this deal was announced is thanks to Snowflake holding on to its 35% gains. We did a full fundamental analysis on Snowflake
in a course member live stream. We've been paying attention to the software bottom forming. Look at what's happening in software. Cloudflare is up 6 1/2%. You've got Palunteer up nearly 4%. Meta's actually green. It's bounced off actually pretty nicely off of this 607 level. Pretty important line that we have recently continued to hit. Uh Axon up another 9% which is remarkable on the day here. Uh and finally solidifying a little bit of a bottom. Why? Why is some of this happening now? Well, some of it's happening because of this Iran uh likely deal that has been reached according to leakers inside the White House. We do
not yet have Donald Trump's truth social post on this. But we're going to go through the details of uh what is rumored to be announced very shortly. And this is what the market is starting to move on. We could actually see uh oil and yields move on this deal as well. So, we have to be careful not to get super excited yet because there's always a chance one side's going to come out and go, "This is fake news." But, frankly, we keep moving closer and closer uh to um uh to a deal, you know, almost on a daily basis. It seems like on a daily basis, we're moving inch closer. And even though yesterday we had some nervousness in the market over, oh no, we got drones flying and
we're striking each other with defensive strikes again, which is just kooky dookie. It does seem like it's fair to get excited over the fact that we are approaching finalizing getting Hormuz reopened, which is great. This morning we were sitting at 76 on Brent. That is despite the fact that we had uh in the uh PCE inflation read this morning and the GDP read although in fairness the GDP read indicated Q1 our economy grew slightly slower than expected at 1.6% rather than 2%. Most people aren't going to pay attention to that. We did get uh Brent though come down now about $2 intraday. You've got WTI coming down also about a buck and a half intraday.
Uh 10-year Treasury yield down about 1.6 bips. So you can see a lot of this deal almost already feels like it's you know we're not seeing much reaction in the bond market yet. I think markets now are like all right can we actually let this be a final deal now but according to the leakers inside of the White House the deal has been reached. So there is an understanding to extend the ceasefire and separately negotiate Iran's nuclear program. So the Iran nuclear program will be negotiated separately. There have been discussions already about potentially China or Russia taking Iran's nuclear highlyenriched material.
Uh it is unlikely that is uh going to be acceptable to Donald Trump. We also see that the Israelis are still expanding their incursion into um Lebanon. You've got two more large city evacuations were just issued yesterday. Donald Trump says ultimately nobody will control Hormuz and it will be open for all. As part of this deal that is currently being leaked, we're expecting Hormuz to open. And Donald Trump is saying he's going to remove the blockade in pieces based on how much Iran loosens their blockade and how much untold traffic Iran lets through. So, we'll see. This is good progress so far. It would be the signing of that memorandum of understanding. We've heard about since Saturday. Both of them did after
Saturday's excitement was announced. Both of them said, "Hey, this is still going to take days. We're not in a major rush to get this done." It seems like now we are getting even closer to this. US negotiators briefed Trump on the details of the final deal, but did not immediately sign off yet. The president relayed to the mediators that he wants a couple days to think about it. So, in fairness, we're now waiting for Donald Trump to craft his truth social post to show how he can declare victory on this. Overall, this is obviously extremely exciting. Uh it is worth noting uh that uh the US officials claim the Iranians did come back and say that they had
necessary approvals and were prepared to sign. Now, to be determined if that is definitely true, some of the stuff comes from leakers, so we don't know. Uh, the Iranians did circulate a 14-point plan that did not include the Iranian nuclear program 2 days ago, which Donald Trump called fake news. But if you think about it, this current framework and memorandum of understanding is also not expected to include the nuclear program because we expect to just kick the can down the road on the nuclear program and the highlyenriched uranium, which does mean we're still in a worse off position than where we were before, where we had weapons inspectors and an understanding of where the uranium was. But it is a
sign that after the damage that was caused on February 28th by attacking Iran and uh Iran essentially taking control via strangle hold of the straight of Hormuz we can now see that we are getting alleviated tensions and we're trying to at least get back to par which remember in January oil prices were 60 bucks. So if we could get back there we could also see that PCE inflation which came out this morning. We could see that number come down. By the way, PC inflation numbers this morning, while the GDP numbers weren't great on the revision, the PC numbers were a lot less scary than feared. We had 2% on core versus the feared.3%.
And exer or core services excluding housing which were rising in CPI came in only at.1% on PP or PCE. Here we did also see households uh see their household incomes basically go stagnant. essentially no growth in household income. Uh in despite the fact that you're seeing household expenses up 0.5% more than expected. So households getting squeezed a little bit of relief on some of that core services inflation we saw from CPI which is good for yields and I would call it another step closer to a deal. It's not 100% official. It's not all going to be over until as I say the fat lady sings or whatever we want to call it. uh but this is really taking shape because we are seeing probably the biggest sort of issue left
is dealing with Israel and Lebanon. But I think one of the reasons and I mentioned this on Saturday, I think one of the reasons Israel is ramping up their attacks into Lebanon uh is because they know this deal is imminent. Uh, in fact, because this deal is so imminent, uh, we're doing a little special thing for people watching this live stream. Uh, we're we're we're doing we were just changing getting ready to change the prices, changing all the prices on all the courses. Uh, we're going to do a really quick like 12-hour extension. That's it. 12 hours. Then the prices going up. Coupon code deal is going to expire tonight. Uh, and we have already set June 8th as our tentative target for
releasing a lot of new features that course members are absolutely going to love. So, we've got a really big release coming out on June 8th. The pricing for the courses will be a lot higher then. But, if you want to join the membership, use coupon code deal on the announcement of this deal. That'll uh we'll we'll raise the pricing tonight on it. Very brief extension here. Just about 12ish hours, 13 14-ish hours, something like that. Uh, but let's keep looking at this here. Trump and his adviserss thought they were close to a deal several times earlier the stage of war but nothing has materialized. The uh US officials said the 60-day memorandum of understanding will state um uh that shipping through
the straight of Hormuz will be unrestricted, no tolls and no harassment and will have Iran will have 30 days to remove all the mines from the straight if any. I wouldn't actually be surprised if the United States helps or Iran just provides the corridor. Remember the way the straight of hormuz works is I'll show you where we think the minds are just sort of consolidating uh the research and knowledge that we have of the area. We believe that the mind areas of the straight of Hormuz which is right here right you've got the Persian Gulf right here the Gulf of Oman on the right side. Uh you know that Saudi Arabia is using their east west pipeline to get oil over to the Red Sea. We know that
the Houthis over in Yemen have not shut down uh the straight over here which is great. We don't need another choke point. But we believe that the mining has mostly occurred on this bottom half of the straight of Hormuz. And that's why Iran forces ships close to their coastline around Lorac Island right here. That this is the safe passage around Lorac and then out, suggesting that this is the mind area. Which means even if Iran doesn't clean all up all of the mines, you could still move through this section right here, which would be fantastic. I'm almost done. I'll be right there. I got to run. I'm getting in trouble. Uh Oman should know that the US Treasury will target any actors
involved in facilitating tolls of the Straight of Hormuz. Oh, this is Besson. Besson's talking right now. Any willing partners in tolling in the Straight of Hormuz will be penalized, including Oman. And Oman is a friend and a peace negotiator for the US. So Bessant is now sticking it to Oman saying you better not participate in tolling them. This needs to be open. You guys need to clean up your crappy mines over here. Iran again I think we'll just send people through Lak over here and then you can avoid the mines. Uh but that's also where you're within drone range, right? That's why most of the ships that are stuck over here don't want to go through there because they know they're just
going to get droned by the Iranians. You're really close to land that way. So anyway, the blockade will be lifted in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping. The MOU will include an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon and we'll figure out how to dispose the highlyenly enriched uranium within 60 days. Very impressive, I have to say. Um this is another step in the right direction. I'm very excited that we can actually potentially broaden this market rally. Uh I think that's very likely especially as oil continues to drop and bonds continue to uh bond yields continue to drop. I do think we are moving to about 739 pretty soon on the NASDAQ 100 but it
needs to be driven by that 21% portion of the NASDAQ 100. That's software Axon which is one of our uh you know one of our targets for a really big bounce off the software bottom mostly because police departments aren't going to vibe code their software away for this. Uh this right here is going to be in my opinion huge uh a huge opportunity in the longer term. And if you want to see more of those huge opportunities and stocks like we've been calling out in the course member live streams, make sure you join us. You could use that coupon code deal. Again, we just very briefly extended it solely on this deal right here. Big price increase tonight.
You get every trade alert, all nine courses, every private live stream, every alpha report, uh every single course that we've got allin-one membership and new features coming out on June 8th. I think everybody's going to love. Thanks so much for being here. Go to meet Kevin.com. We'll see you all soon. Goodbye.
