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So, we already know that Meta, in my opinion, has great growth potential. But that's not just my opinion, it's also what Wall Street thinks. If you simply take Wall Street metrics and apply a very basic multiplier to Meta, this stock still has 43% upside potential. But what about agency commerce? And what will agent commerce, especially because of this moment with Meta Muse, do to other platforms: Amazon, Google, Etsy, DoorDash, Wingstop? Well, we have some estimates from Deutsche Bank, and we're going to break them all down. Keep a few things in mind. First, my target price for Meta is actually much higher than this. I think Meta's growth will be much higher, and so my prediction for Meta stock is closer to $1,800, which means it could more
than double from its current level, which I know sometimes scares people when you hear it right away and the reaction is, "What? This is crazy. This sounds ridiculous." But Meta has become very, very cheap, especially when it hovered around the $566 level , given the level of spending and what the company gets from advertising budgets. We'll talk about advertising in a moment. By the way, this is part of our old stock platform, all of which will be replaced with a brand new terminal at the end of the year, which we are very excited about. This is a complete redesign, and it's all part of what we call Reinvest One: superintelligence in one terminal. You can get it at meetkevin.com. You can get it right now. Of course, the final product is
not yet out. This will appear closer to the end of the year. But for now, you can take advantage of the benefits of Alpha membership, all the trading alerts, Reinvest stock rebalancing, the terminal coming out at the end of the year, the Homes AI platform , everything we offer in one product, all nine courses, live streams for course participants, agent AI products for consumers, a business plan coming out early in the year. You get all of this. And we just connected Affirm so you can pay for it over 12 months if you want. This is not a subscription, you pay once and get lifetime access. So what do we have with Meta? What's great about Meta is that Deutsche Bank just published an analysis that says, "Hey, we're still seeing a massive wave of Meta Muse downloads."
We checked, it's still number one in the App Store. They also continue to run ads in the App Store, which is profitable for Apple. I even have the Muse app downloaded and they show me ads in the App Store, which I find quite funny. But perhaps this is a strategic move to get you to open the app more often and increase its usage. And the most interesting parts of this material appear when we delve a little further. So, they argue that potentially $2.5 to $ 5.5 trillion in spending in the economy is the size of the retail and services market. About $2.5-5.5 trillion of the $27 trillion that is spent annually or is projected to be spent by 2030 could be on agent-based AI. And I would like to point out that, in my opinion, these percentages may be
underestimated. I believe that as a result you will spend more than 10% of your capital through agent AI. They believe that in the first scenario, only 10% will be spent through AI, in the second - 15 %, or 20% through AI. I think all these numbers may be underestimates. Because in the future, if you're looking for furniture or interior design items, you won't want to browse through 50 different sofas, for example. You will provide or receive three suggestions from your AI agent. Hey, which of these options best suits your style? Not this one, and not that one. Yeah, okay, maybe this one. Okay, how about three more images similar to this and choose from them. Oh
, those two are good, but not that one. Oh, well, in that case, you might really like this product from Restoration Hardware or something, right? This type of search is better than going to 50 different sites and trying to do it yourself. It's a hassle, it's hard, and it actually makes the shopping process painful. And so I think if you can simplify the process of shopping and spending money when people earn more-of course, not everyone, because we're still dealing with a K- shaped economy. You're actually turning this into an opportunity to not only increase that level, overall sales, which is great for companies around the world and for the economy, but you're also increasing the level of adoption. So, it could actually
be significantly higher. This may apply to furniture, garden equipment, auto parts, tombstones, monuments, coffins. We had a whole discussion about this live. Office supplies, stationery, gifts, souvenirs, healthcare products, you know, toilet paper, tissue paper stationery, whatever. And so, you know, my thesis is that Google or Meta will eventually take the basis points as a kind of commission. So my initial thought was that maybe they would take less than 1% commission. Maybe 50 basis points. This could generate $27 billion in commissions from these levels in total. Which is actually not that much. But Deutsche Bank has a different view.
They truly believe that Meta can take a commission of 3 to 5%. That's potentially $270 billion in revenue. Now think about this for a moment. Think about it, I want you to think for a moment. What does an additional $270 billion in revenue look like? Well, imagine you have a company that currently makes $270 billion a year. What company do we know that currently makes $270 billion a year? Oh, how convenient. This is Meta. And Deutsche Bank claims that interest from agency commerce could essentially generate $270 billion in additional funds.
Now, that doesn't mean Meta will get all of this, but you're effectively saying that there's a whole additional "Meta" at stake thanks to the percentage of agent AI commerce. And they estimate that Meta will take somewhere between 8 and 18% of that. I think there could potentially be more, given Keep in mind, X, just for comparison, instead of 3 billion daily active users, has about 450 million monthly active users. It's still a bit more of a niche resource in perhaps tech or more conservative communities. However, and of course, Meta also has this global reach. However, this is only one potential revenue stream, as another revenue stream, according to Deutsche Bank, which I disagree with, is the idea that people can hold money on their
agent AI platform, and companies can invest those funds, essentially. It's like what Starbucks does with the money on your gift cards that you don't spend-that $50 multiplied by millions of people. This is a huge amount of money that they can invest and make a profit. I actually think there's a more important aspect they didn't really write about-how this could affect Meta's revenue, which they predict will exceed consensus. Here are the numbers from the consensus forecast for 2030- $466 billion. They believe that transaction fees and spreads alone could bring Meta an additional $36 billion by 2030. I think that's an underestimate.
Mainly because we have n't even talked about how you can integrate advertising here. So I think a company that would pay money to be one of those offerings, like in a furniture selection-you know, " choose from these three "-and one of them would be sponsored. Who cares if it says sponsored"? If you say, "Yeah, no, I still like the style of that sponsored option." They will click on it. This could likely double the revenues an advertising platform like Meta generates. It's actually very exciting. So I think there's a lot of potential here. Additionally, they claim that their current cost per user for running Meta Muse is approximately $3.50 to $6.50. So, according to their estimates, free users cost Meta about five dollars a month, active users
- 35, and the maximum level - 165 dollars. Of course, these other two levels are paid for. Here they break down some of the costs for companies. They also talk about this pressure to partner with artificial intelligence. For example, if Expedia becomes a partner with Meta, it may force booking.com to also enter into a partnership, otherwise they will lose their ability to attract customers. So you're better off paying Meta for promotion and becoming their partner. This is quite logical. So, which stocks do we think could suffer? Well, Deutsche Bank aptly noted the increase in commodity typification (commoditization). What things do I consider to be
mass goods that we buy all the time or that businesses buy? Stationery, dog food, paper, coffee, toilet paper, etc. Gaming computers, tires-all of these are becoming more mass- produced, which reduces the pricing power of the respective companies. So if you invest in companies that produce such goods, they may face a decline in pricing power. Whereas higher pricing power can be expected from unique items. Gift ideas, unique furniture, custom-made goods -you name it. Deutsche Bank singles out Etsy and eBay in this regard. Personally, I see this as a potential loss for companies like Amazon and Google, as they will lose some of their advertising
or Google search revenue. And Google's search revenue accounts for just over 50% of the company's total revenue. In addition, those additional ads, for example, when placing an order at DoorDash or Wingstop, in my opinion, will also become losers. But on the other hand, advertising can win: although you lose here, you can win from advertising on the entertainment platforms that you already use. TikTok, YouTube, which, to be fair, is part of Google, Instagram, Netflix, games via AppLovin on mobile devices. And so I find it very interesting when we think about what benefits not only Meta but also other companies that implement generative AI. Who
knows? Maybe Amazon, and I'm sure it will, will eventually release its own agent. For example: " Hey, just use this exclusive Amazon agent." But do I want to use an Amazon exclusive agent, or an agent who can search both on Amazon and, say, Walmart? You know, Muse, for example, has already connected with Walmart and is collaborating with them. So that's pretty reasonable. So, I suspect Amazon will eventually be forced to pay commissions to these AI models. And of course, there are risks for businesses with high churn, like the Aura ring, Whoop subscription renewals, or the gym you don't go to, etc. We send out a "Daily Wealth" newsletter, which I recommend signing up for because it's free, and you also get.
Sometimes we put price targets in there, but we also send out video digests, like, "Hey, we talked about this and that in the video; if you want to learn more, watch the video here." And you get really useful conclusions. But in one of our newsletters, we discussed the return on investment of owning your own gym and how that compares to paying for a gym membership you don't go to and using your own because it's closer. You can pay for your own gym pretty quickly, depending on what you spend your money on. But uh.And it could be at your house, in your garage, or anywhere. The whole point was that. But I urge you to join us in this. You can go to meetkevin.com/digest and subscribe to this newsletter. It's free, it doesn't cost you anything.
This will remain free. So check it out. But anyway, going back to DBP, this is very exciting for Meta, as I think it all adds up to Meta's growth potential. Now the growth potential of this company is being evaluated, well, right now we have a PE ratio of 35, sorry, 35.05-that's the EPS at the end of the year, according to the current consensus. And then growth, they're only predicting consensus growth at 9.5 next year, 21.6, 18.6, and 13.4-that's about 15.67, that's the average growth over four years. So if I take Meta at 745 today, that means they are trading at a multiple of about 21.23 or a PEG ratio of 1.3. I personally think this could easily be doubled. Because that would give you a PEG of about 2.6, and I actually think their growth rate would be higher. So,
if I take a higher growth rate, say 20%, and multiply it by a PEG closer to 2.6, I get my target price of $1,822 for Meta. But it's not just Meta that's going to win, you know, there are other companies that have slightly bigger hurdles ahead, including, I think, Google. While I do believe that in this general economic upswing that we're seeing, all boats will rise, it's worth looking at in your portfolio and thinking, "Hmm, okay." "How will this be a small driver of change?" After all, the broader economy, even the S&P 500, is all relatively optimistic. Because, in my opinion, it just fuels all the S&P 500 companies. It's just optimism for the S& P 500 and accelerating the velocity of
money in America. You reduce the pain of payment, you increase the velocity of money, you increase GDP. Quite fascinating. So I'm pretty enthusiastic about it, and that makes me pretty optimistic. Anyway, if you want to learn more, be sure to join us at meetkevin.com/join. You pay once and get lifetime access forever to all the products we have on meetkevin.com. This means that once we enter 2027, there will be no more lifetime subscriptions. We're moving to a pay-for- reinvestment model, and then it's like an annual renewal that you have to pay for.
Maybe you pay for two years in advance, you know how it goes. We have n't decided for sure yet. But the point is, you buy now, and you can get trade alerts tomorrow or 10 years from now. You buy in 2027, you have renewal costs if you join in 2020 or later, you know, when the new year comes. So keep that in mind. Join us at meetkevin.com. And that's all. If you liked this video, watch this. I think you'll like it. Why not promote what you've talked about here? I don't think anyone else knows about this. We'll try some advertising and see how it goes.
Congratulations, dude. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. Kevin Paffrath, financial analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. It's always nice to hear your opinion.
