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Jamie Dimon, CEO of America's largest bank, just gave an interview to Bloomberg, where he was asked, " What do you think about the AI bubble?" That's what he said. I've always said that the best thing to do with any of these things is to deal with them before they become a crisis. If this becomes a crisis, we will handle it. It's just going to be a much less pleasant way. But this is where things got interesting, because he said his main concern wasn't the AI bubble, but the credit crunch behind it. Listen. We cannot borrow endlessly and spend endlessly, and this has been going on for a long time. There will come a point where the market
will demand more and more, and yes, at some point this will affect corporate debt, corporate credit spreads, etc. Let me explain what he means by "more and more." Companies were borrowing money wildly to invest in AI. Well, as banks like JPMorgan Chase Bank start to worry more about the AI bubble, interest rates are starting to rise. And this makes borrowing more expensive. Companies investing in AI still need to borrow more money, but now the cost of borrowing is constantly rising, and eventually there comes a critical point where companies can no longer afford to borrow more, even though they need the
money to continue growing. That's when the credit crunch begins, and we've already started to see its effects. China's AI bubble burst, and AI company stocks fell with it by more than 40%. The South Korean AI market also fell in 2026. And here in the United States, we've seen Google's stock plummet on concerns about their AI debt, and Intel's stock plummeted on the same thing -concerns about their AI and their AI debt. Now, to understand what's happening in AI lending, let me explain it in a little simpler terms. Let's say you want to borrow $400,000 to buy this house. A year ago, you could get that $400,000 at 6.17%, which meant the cost of servicing the debt was about $2,400 per month. Fast forward to today: that same $400,000 won't cost
you $2,400 a month because interest rates have risen. Now, that same mortgage will cost you about 7.24%, meaning you 'll be paying about $2,700 a month for the same house, borrowing the same amount of money. That's $300 more for the same house. Now imagine that you are a company that borrows not $ 400,000, but, say, $400 million. Now it is becoming much more expensive. And Jamie Dimon's concerns are n't just about current interest rates, but also where that credit spread might be heading. That is, what premium do companies now have to pay for borrowing money, as the risk of lending increases. Here is a chart from the Federal Reserve showing the credit spread. That is, what is the premium that a company
has to pay to borrow money. And now we're at about 1.5%, which, as you can see, is very low, and that may not seem like a bad thing. But the last time we saw such a low credit spread was back in February 2007, right before the housing market collapse. And if you look at the last time we saw credit spreads this low, it was in January 2000, right before the dot-com bubble burst. That's the concern. Right now, this credit spread is relatively low, but if we start to see more problems in the economy or in the AI market, this spread could increase very quickly, and it would make it much more expensive for companies to borrow money. And you can see how this could create additional problems because of AI companies needing debt. They need access to big money, which
they don't have. If they can't get them, it could make the AI bubble situation much worse. So in this video, I want to break down what Jamie Dimon is talking about and explain the five stages of a credit crunch. This way, you can become a smarter investor, because while most people are panicking, it actually creates opportunities, and that's what I want to show you in this video. And so, when you find opportunities, I highly recommend analyzing them with an AI like ChatGPT, Claude, or whatever AI you use. Just make sure you do it right, because with AI tools like these, you're essentially getting a Wall Street analyst at your fingertips. But it all depends on how well you know how to use AI tools, so for the first time ever, on November 17th, I will be
hosting a free live stream where I will show how my analyst and I use tools like ChatGPT and Claude to research investments, find opportunities, and pick stocks using better AI queries and the right use of these tools. This is a free live broadcast. I will be hosting it twice on November 17th: in the morning at 10:30 AM Eastern Time and in the evening at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. This will be very popular. The number of people who can join me live is limited. So if you have n't registered yet, the link is in the description below. As an added bonus, when you come live on November 17th, I'll give you a list of the top 10 AI queries that my analyst and I use. You can simply copy and paste them into your AI to
research investments the way we do. You'll get this as a bonus when you come to the live stream on November 17th. So the reason why it's so important to understand credit crunches is that our economy is driven by spending. The more money you spend, the more money someone else makes. If you go to Chipotle and buy a burrito, you are supporting the economy. But if you buy that burrito with money that doesn't belong to you-meaning you've already spent everything you earned at work and are now paying with an Amex card-you're supporting the economy even more because you're spending money you don't have. That's how our economic system works. We do not live in a money economy, we live in a credit economy, which means
: people have the opportunity to spend not only what they have in their pockets, but also what credit they can count on. I'm not saying it's right, it's just how our economic system works. So in an economy that relies on spending, those spending depend not only on how much money people earn, but also on what kind of credit they can count on. In addition, corporations are huge borrowers in our economy, and right now it is the tech giants-AI companies-that are borrowing the most money. They are the ones who borrow such huge sums, and all this money ends up in someone's pocket, because they pay contractors, they pay employees, they build buildings, they work. So, that's what's
driving the economy, and when we talk about the credit crunch, it means that AI companies can't borrow as much money. This is where you could see an economic slowdown, if it happens, as less money flows into the economy; and less money means fewer jobs, fewer contracts, and less economic growth. So, the five stages of a credit crunch: The first is the boom stage, when you see a boom in a certain industry and an increase in lending. The second is the easing of lending conditions, when banks say: "Oh my God, you can make so much money here." Let's stop checking customers' credit ratings. And so on. So, you start relaxing requirements to issue more loans. Then number three: expensive loans. Banks say, "Oh, oh, we're starting to see more risk,
so we're raising interest rates because now we're worried." Which leads to number four-cracks, when everything starts to break. And finally, number five-a complete rollback, when banks stop issuing loans altogether. So let's take it step by step, starting with the boom phase. During the boom phase, a new technology emerges and takes the world by storm. In the 1990s, it was the internet, and huge amounts of debt and investment money were pouring into the industry because everyone wanted a piece of it. Today we see the same thing, but not with the Internet, but with artificial intelligence, where a record amount of borrowed funds is being directed.
There's a reason why this is happening: AI is changing the world, changing the economy, and every company wants to be a leader, so they try to borrow as much money as possible to grow faster than everyone else. But here's where the fun begins, because not only companies borrow money, but also investors who take out loans to buy shares in these companies. We saw this very recently in China, where a record amount of money was borrowed to invest in the shares of AI companies before the AI bubble burst. We saw the same thing in South Korea, where investors borrowed record amounts on margin, investing them in AI stocks, and then that bubble burst. So now you have all these investors who not only lost their money, but were also left with the debts
they had accrued to buy these stocks. It was a double blow. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let me tell you what happens when we move into the second phase-credit easing. Because now we are witnessing a real boom . In the 90s, there was a boom in the dot-com industry. Today is a boom in the field of artificial intelligence. So what happens when you start to see lending conditions ease? The best example I can give of the easing of credit conditions is the events leading up to the housing market crash of 2008. President Bush says the housing market is the best investment you can make. Everyone should buy a house.
I truly believe in the "American dream." Owning your own home is part of this dream. At the same time, banks are starting to encourage lenders to issue loans. And how did they do it? Well, one of the first things was what was called "ninja lending." Loans without income, without work, without assets. It sounds crazy, but if you wanted to buy that $400,000 house I just mentioned, you didn't need income. You didn't need a job. You didn't even need assets. You just signed the papers, and here you are, getting a loan for $400,000. And then the banks got even more cunning because they understood, "Yes, you may not have a job or money, but you have a
480 credit score. I can't approve you." Then subprime loans appeared, allowing even those with a credit rating of 550 to buy a house. Freddie Mac will launch 25 initiatives to remove barriers to homeownership. Under one of them, consumers with poor credit histories will be able to get a mortgage with an interest rate that automatically decreases after regular payments. Thanks to subprime loans, you could now qualify to buy a house at a higher interest rate. And then mortgages appeared with a loan-to- collateral ratio of 120%. So, you want to buy a house for $400,000? How about we lend you
$480,000? Then you will have money to move. You will have money for repairs and money for a new TV. This was the peak of credit easing, because now banks wanted to get in on the game. Everyone thought that housing prices would never fall because everyone always needed a home. And so, banks gave out loans to anyone who could breathe and sign papers. In this AI bubble, we haven't seen anything like the 2008 housing market crisis, but we have definitely seen a loosening of credit conditions over the past few years, where it has become easier to borrow money, where there has been a lot more money coming into the system, and there has also been an era of extremely low interest rates
after the pandemic. 2020, 2021, 2022: We had extremely low interest rates where people borrowed money like crazy. An interesting point about that era, let's remember that businesses don't get 30-year fixed- rate mortgages. They get loans with variable interest rates. These are usually loans for 3, 5 or 7 years. So here we are today in 2026, and we see a significant portion of those 2020/2021 loans starting to be reviewed. So, if you took out a loan at 3% in 2021, today it is revised to 7, 8, or 9%. And if you borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars, that's a significant increase in the cost of your debt. Even if you don't take out more money, the cost of that debt you had is now much higher, so your expenses have increased significantly. And
so now we're seeing that those soft lending conditions that we've been seeing, partly because of low interest rates, are now starting to hurt some businesses. Part of the concern about these soft lending conditions is not about banks like JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo or Bank of America, although they have their own problems. Of greater concern are private lending companies. I've made a video about this before, but these private lending companies work because there was a niche in the market. Well, let's say you wanted to borrow $200 million. This was not a small enough amount for a regional bank, and not large enough for large banks. So there was a gap: if you wanted to borrow $200 million for your AI company, you couldn't find a lender, especially
given the risky nature of your business or the startup nature of your company, it was difficult for you to get those loans. And then this industry called private lending came along, and it was created by hedge funds. These are companies like BlackRock, Blackstone and other similar funds that have now started lending money to such middle market companies. And their specialty was that they would look for technology and software companies that had previously been great cash flow machines, lend them money, and then raise money from investors to continue those loans. Well, today these private lending firms are bleeding money. We've seen firms like BlackRock. We've seen firms like Blackstone. We saw companies like Apollo
go out of business. Their investors are withdrawing funds because they have essentially been told that the companies are not repaying their debts. And if you take your money out of here, we'll go bankrupt. So they froze the funds out of fear that they would simply not be able to exist anymore, because with the increase in interest rates, the burden on companies also increased, and many of them are unable to continue paying higher interest. Now you might be asking, "Well , Des Breed, I thought these were tech companies. Aren't they making more money than ever?" Well, remember, there are a few key companies that make a lot of money, but many other companies don't make a profit. And if you're a traditional software company
that, you know, hasn't been implementing AI fast enough, then you may not be evolving fast enough to keep up with the changes and compete with AI. That's the problem, that's why a lot of these software companies are suffering, and that's why private lending is suffering because of that reckless lending. And what bothers a lot of people, based on Jamie Dimon's words, is his reference to the 2008 housing market crash; He says it feels like 2005, 2006, 2007, when there was a lot of money to be made and people took out any kind of loan because they thought they would get rich quick. Listen. Unfortunately, we saw this in 2005, 2006, 2007, pretty much the same thing. Everyone was making a lot of money. I see some people doing
stupid things. This brings us to the third stage, as loans start to become more expensive. This is one of the things Jamie Dimon has been talking about specifically: he is no longer being so reckless with lending requirements. He says they don't need to chase things like that anymore. The reason this third stage is so interesting is that in the past, higher interest rates have typically been the needle that punctured economic bubbles. When the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, the needle that pierced it was higher interest rates. In the 1990s, prices of everything were rising, company valuations were skyrocketing, because huge amounts of money were being poured into these dot-coms. So the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates to cool the market,
and the dot-com bubble burst, wreaking havoc on the economy and the companies themselves. The same thing happened in the housing market in the mid- 2000s, when it started going crazy because everyone was buying houses, even without money or income, simply because every bank was giving out loans. That's when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates. These higher rates made adjustable- rate mortgages more expensive, which ultimately led to the collapse of the housing bubble. Today, interest rates have risen significantly over the past few years-partly because of the Federal Reserve and partly because of higher Treasury yields. By the way, just so we understand each other: the yield on Treasury
bonds is the interest you get when you lend money to the United States government And that yield has risen over the past 12 months not because the Fed raised rates, but because people, countries, and investors around the world have become less trusting of the U.S. government due to concerns about the U.S. dollar. They had concerns about inflation Therefore, to offset these risks, the US government was forced to raise bond yields, which is why they rose to the highest levels in decades. This is one of the reasons why, according to Jamie Dimon, we are now seeing more expensive loans, especially for corporations like AI companies. The second reason is what he calls increased competition for capital. The idea is that a few years ago we kept
hearing about investors having access to a bunch of extra money and large savings. But now there are no such savings as there were a few years ago. So now companies are fighting for access to dollars, and more banks are saying, " We're not sure we want to lend you money." And to justify this risk, we have to raise interest rates. Not to mention the risk of inflation. Inflation has proven to be persistent, meaning it is higher than expected and is not going away. So, if you're a bank and your investment income is based solely on interest, you want to protect yourself from inflation, because
if inflation goes up and you make a 10- year loan, it could eat up all your profit on that loan. Therefore, banks have to protect themselves from inflation risk, and one way to do this is by setting higher interest rates on loans. And this is where the problems begin, because when interest rates rise, companies find themselves in a difficult position. Because, firstly, you want to get more money to continue growing your business, but the cost of raising these funds has become significantly higher. You cannot continue to develop or even simply manage your company because you do not have access to new funds. And the second problem is that companies that took out loans several years ago are now trying to
renegotiate the terms, that is, refinance their debts, but at significantly higher interest rates, if banks agree to refinancing at all. As asset valuations have fallen. So maybe 3 years ago you thought your company was worth $100 million , but today it's only valued at $ 80 million. And now you're having trouble refinancing because your company's valuation, which you thought was going to go up, has actually gone down. In addition, the cost of debt has become higher, and this is where these high interest rates start to hurt companies and their ability to grow, which brings us to point four. Cracks. Every time we've seen a credit crunch,
cracks have appeared as the cost of loans has risen-which means more defaults and more bankruptcies. Let's consider this scenario. Let 's go back to the dot-com bubble. In the 1990s, we experienced a boom associated with new technologies and a new industry-the Internet, where huge amounts of capital were being poured. Then we saw a relaxation of lending requirements. Banks provided loans to Internet companies not because they were profitable or generated revenue, but simply for the idea, allowing them to borrow millions of dollars. Therefore, lending requirements were relaxed. Then, towards the end of the 1990s, interest rates began to rise. The Federal Reserve started raising rates, loans became more expensive, which
led to cracks appearing as we started seeing defaults. When the Internet bubble burst, we saw hundreds of Internet companies go bankrupt in 2001, meaning they stopped making payments to their creditors. Let's move on to 2008, when the housing bubble burst : we saw a real boom, because everyone then claimed that every American should have their own home, and prices for it could only increase. So everyone started buying houses. Then we saw a loosening of lending conditions. So-called " ninja loans" appeared-without proof of income, work, or assets. We saw mortgages for borrowers with low credit scores. And then loans with a loan-to-value ratio of 120% appeared. So, everyone received loans, even without any requirements. Then, when
interest rates started to rise in the mid-2000s, buying a home became more expensive because mortgage rates rose. And as floating rate mortgages started to refinance, people's costs went up because they didn't have a fixed rate for 30 years. Many had floating-rate mortgages, house prices fell, and we saw a wave of foreclosures. It was then that the first cracks appeared Today, in 2026, the question arises: will we see new cracks? This is what we just observed in China. When the AI "bubble" burst in China, not only did AI companies find themselves in trouble, but investors who had borrowed money to invest in them also began to default. We recently saw this in South Korea: after the fall in the shares of
AI companies, not only the companies themselves suffered, but also investors who invested in them on margin and were also forced to declare default. In the United States, we have yet to see the AI "bubble" burst. Some people don't believe we have some kind of AI "bubble" at all. I'll leave it to you, but we're already starting to see some cracks. We just saw some serious problems with Google stock. Why? Because they were investing all their free cash flow into AI development, while some other areas of their business were in decline. We saw the same thing with Intel. Intel receives investment from the United States government.
Their stock was soaring, but now people are worried that they won't show the expected growth in the AI industry, causing the company's stock to suffer one of the worst days in its history. I say this so that you will be careful, because ultimately, we do not know what awaits us next. But when you start hearing that giants like Google and Intel are now struggling or making losses at a time when the rest of the world is already saying that the AI bubble is bursting, that's something to pay attention to. Nobody knows what will happen next. My goal is to help you understand what's happening so you can become a smarter investor. There is a possibility that the AI bubble will burst,
causing a stock market crash and economic problems, which will also create a great opportunity for bargain shopping. There is a chance that it will not break, markets will continue to grow, and the economy will continue to develop. I don't know what will happen. Everyone in the news is trying to force only one point of view on you. I want you to understand both sides so you can be a smarter investor. And this is where I again strongly recommend using AI tools to help with your research so you can find investment opportunities, because ultimately all of these changes, while people are giving in to emotions, are creating investment opportunities. This is exactly what I will discuss during the live broadcast on November 17. So
if you haven't registered yet, the link is in the description below. According to Jamie Dimon, the area where he expects these cracks to appear in the near future is the data center industry. Listen. Well, I think you mentioned that, so it's all the same: you know, when we went through the Internet phase, it all paid off in the end, but there will be better models, better semiconductors, schedules will change, there will be lawsuits about building these data centers. And this is where Ray Dalio joins the discussion. Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund in the world, and he posted on Twitter about just that. Let me read it to you. The market is now starting to contract
as investors start demanding bigger concessions to absorb the supply. In other words, because of everything I just talked about, more and more investors and lenders are now saying, " We don't know if we want to lend you money." "We don't know if we want to invest our money in you." "We need more concessions." "We need more protection." "We need higher interest rates to protect ourselves because of all the risks we are seeing." When you see these cracks, the fifth stage begins-the real credit crunch, that is, the reduction in lending. A cutback is when banks essentially say, "We're not going to lend money anymore. We are introducing stricter restrictions. We will make it much more difficult for people to get loans." This
is considered a credit crunch, because remember what I said at the beginning of the video: our economy is driven by spending. And our expenses are not only how much money you have in your pocket, but also what kind of credit you can count on. So, if banks stop lending, money stops flowing into the economy in the form of loans, spending stops, and that's when a credit crunch occurs. We saw this happen during the dot-com bubble collapse. After it burst, banks stopped lending money to Internet companies because they didn't know who was reliable and who wasn't, and they didn't want to take any more risks. We saw this after the housing market crash in 2008. When the housing market collapsed after 2008,
buying a house became very difficult. Loans without proof of income have disappeared, subprime loans and mortgages with 120% coverage have disappeared. Now you had to make a 30% down payment to be considered as a buyer at all. You need a high credit score, stable income, and serious assets to buy a home. It was a complete U-turn. Lenders only lent to those who were guaranteed to repay the money, and it is at this point that we are seeing such a reduction. This is one of the things we are seeing right now in China. So what happens next? Well, it's up to you, but I want to clarify a few points. The path to wealth accumulation lies through investing. How to become wealthy through investing? With what I call ABB.
Always be buying. Create a system where you simply invest in the economy every week, every two weeks, or every month. You buy the broad market on autopilot, regardless of whether the investment is rising, falling, or stagnant. If you do this regularly over years or decades, it's a proven way to build capital. But this may not satisfy some people. And here you have several options. Option one: Instead of retiring at 65, you can retire at 72. You simply invest longer so your money accumulates and grows. Second option: you can invest more money. You can increase your investment amount from $500 to $1,000 per month by cutting expenses even further or finding a second job. Or a third option: you can work on getting higher returns to
accelerate wealth growth. So, how to do it? The first way is what I call POP. Panic leads to overselling, which leads to opportunities and ultimately to profits. It would be like buying during the 2020 pandemic. It would be like buying during the 2008 housing market crash. It would be like buying during the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. If you can buy during a market crash, it creates a great opportunity because you can buy any asset at a discount. The only problem is that we don't know when the next market crash will happen. We know it will happen, we just don't know when. But it's a great way to accelerate wealth growth because you can buy great assets when they're cheaper. The second way is what
I call RD, market shifts. Identifying where the money is going so we can invest in the industry where it is going, not where it has been. This is another way to accelerate the growth of wealth. So, all we've talked about here is understanding what's bothering Jamie Dimon. He's not just concerned about the AI industry, but as the CEO of the largest bank in the US, he's concerned about a potential credit crunch because we've seen how such crises have unfolded in the past and how they could impact the economy. He is already taking the measures he talked about in his interview to protect his bank, but
that doesn't mean the entire banking sector is safe. So he worries that if we start seeing something like this, it could lead to a credit crunch, which would be an opportunity for the POP. When panic leads to overselling , which leads to opportunities and ultimately to profits. That's exactly how you should think, because while most people are panicking, you should be thinking about potential profits. One of the things I've learned in life is that often the things we don't pay attention to end up being the most important. And that's why I want to talk to you about life insurance with our sponsor Policygenius. After all, if you don't have savings to live on yet and something terrible happens to you, the
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half-million-dollar term life insurance policy for less than a dollar a day. So if you have any questions, want to learn more about term insurance, or see how much such a policy would actually cost you, I'll leave a link to the Policygenius form in the description. It only takes a few minutes and you will get a real price of how much your term insurance will cost. I have placed this link for you in the description. So, in this video we talked about Jamie Dimon giving an interview to Bloomberg. In one of the questions, he talked not only about the AI bubble, but also about the credit crunch, which worries him.
In essence, he was saying that we are currently witnessing a certain shift. And to understand how this happens, you need to understand the life cycle of a credit crisis. We've seen it time and time again: the first step is always a boom . In the 90s, there was a boom in the Internet industry. In the early 2000s, there was a boom in the residential real estate market. Today, there is a boom in the artificial intelligence industry. And now the creditors want their share of it. So what do they do? They don't want to be left out. So what do they do? Second, they relax lending requirements. In the 90s, if you were a dot-com company, you could get millions of dollars without even starting a business and without earning a
single cent, because lenders didn't want to miss their chance. In the mid-2000s, we saw a rise in the number of "ninja loans," mortgages for borrowers with low credit scores, and mortgages that reached 120% of the value of the collateral. Consequently, lending restrictions were relaxed. Of course, we didn't see anything like this during this AI bubble, but lending conditions have definitely become softer. Even Jamie Dimon talked about this, especially during the 2020-2022 pandemic era, when interest rates were ultra-low and everyone was encouraged to borrow. The problem is that these weren't 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Most of these loans begin to be reviewed now, in 2026. And here we are, moving on to point number three, where everything
gets more expensive, and lenders start saying, "Hmm, we're not sure if we want to continue taking the same risks as before." So now interest rates are starting to rise. We saw the Federal Reserve raise interest rates. We saw Treasury bond yields rise . And this leads to two consequences. First, if you are a business and you need to continue to borrow money for operations or development, that money is now becoming more expensive as everyone around you is raising rates. And now, if you're a business whose loans need to be renegotiated or refinanced in 2026, it's going to cost a lot more than it used to.
This increase in cost increases operating costs, making it harder to do business, which raises concerns about moving to point number four-cracks, which is defaults, where companies say, "Oh, we can't keep making these loans, so we're stopping payments." So, banks stop returning their funds. Or investors who used loans for risky investments, considering them good, begin to declare defaults. And when that starts to happen, more and more cracks appear: defaults, bankruptcies, foreclosures This leads to point number five-a pullback and then a credit crunch, where banks say, "We don't want to keep lending unless it's an exceptionally sound investment." This essentially means that banks stop issuing loans.
This harms the economy as a whole, as it operates on spending. And expenses aren't just money in your pocket, they're also credit. We live in a society based on credit, so if people don't have access to it, the economy starts to slow down because money stops circulating. I'm not saying this to scare you, but so that you understand how our economy works. Ultimately, wealth is built through consistent investing, but to speed up this process, you can use what I call POOP. Panic leads to overselling, which creates opportunities that lead to profits. Buy during market crashes, always have the funds to take advantage of POOP when it happens, as it creates great opportunities to accelerate your wealth growth, and
then comes MS-market reversals. Invest where the money goes. If this video was useful to you, the best thank you is a recommendation. Please share this video with friends, family, colleagues, or other investors so we can continue to spread this kind of financial education. Thank you. It's official: The Federal Reserve is getting nervous. Why? At a recent meeting, they stated: first, inflation may remain high for longer than expected. Second, interest rates are likely to rise. And third, we see increasing
concern about companies and artificial intelligence. Why? China's AI bubble just
