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Iran just struck America again and the ECB is now warning of the Rword recession. In fact, Canada just entered a technical recession. In this video, I'm going to break down exactly what you need to pay attention to in the stock market, where the short squeeze has started, but where problems might unfold on Monday when the market opens back up. Write down some notes because you need to know what's going on between Iran, the United States, and with Israel because it's all a little poopy dupy right now. Let's get started. So, first, Iran just struck a Kuwaiti air base that injured multiple Americans. The missile was intercepted and five Americans, active duty, and contractors were
expected to be injured. But that missile was intercepted so low that falling debris still injured service members. and two MQ9 Reaper Strike drones were damaged. These drones are expensive. You can get a really nice regional jet for like 5 to 12 million depending on how new you want it to be. Just saying in case you want to float yourself around. These Reaper drones cost more than that, up to twice as much. 16 to $30 million. One of them is considered destroyed, the other one pretty dang damage. You've got Israel lobbing more rockets, another 10 from uh northern Israel into Lebanon and their fight against Hezbollah, which is not good because it's part of the deal that's attempted, you know, it's part of the
deal that Donald Trump wants to get with Iran is convincing Israel to stop attacking Lebanon. At the same time, Oman is now reporting that they're detecting naval mines in Hormuz, and they're reporting ships or reporting that ships should avoid floating objects, which seemed obvious, but apparently it's not. 20 ships have passed through the straight of Hormuz in the last 24 hours per the IRGC via FAR's news agency. And JP Morgan tells us that the US blockade isn't being enforced. And so, we have ships floating through, which is good. And heath tells us that talks are progressing, but it doesn't sound like it when we're getting attacks like this. So, what's going on? Well, you've got one Iranian adviser called
Mosen Razi. He's a former IRGC official and is currently an adviser to the Ayatollah. He says that Donald Trump has betrayed diplomacy for a third time. By continuing the naval blockade and making excessive demands in his negotiations, he is once again proving that he is not inclined towards negotiation and is instead pursuing other objectives. This is probably, in my opinion, like two children that have been put in timeout in the cafeteria and they're supposed to apologize and, you know, kind of like make up, but they just keep like throwing hot dogs at each other. You know, last Saturday, Donald Trump said, "All right, we have a memorandum of understanding. you know, we're we're
about to make a deal and there was a lot of excitement about a deal is imminent. And then all of a sudden, within the next 12 hours, we hear, well, we're not going to rush into a deal. And then a day after that, oh, the United States conducts defensive strikes against fastboats laying mines in the straight of Hormuz. All it takes is one ship to blow up, by the way, and that whole Hormuz is going to freeze in shock again. Uh, and the United States ends up striking Iranian drones and missile launch facilities, which one of those missile launch facilities that wasn't struck did just fire upon a Kuwaiti air base of the United States. So, none of this is good. Donald Trump said he held a meeting yesterday in the situation
room for 2 hours to make a final determination on Iran. And this is what we got out of it. Yeah, big fat. Nothing. We did hear though that the Times is reporting Donald Trump is considering a $300 billion infrastructure fund to Iran. Which means if that's true, it means we spent somewhere around a hundred billion, maybe 70 to hundred billion destroying Iran and now we're going to spend $400 billion uh sorry, $300 billion, which is a lot of money, $300 billion uh for a reported infrastructure fund straight to Iran or potentially con controlled by somebody like Jared Kushner and some kind of Iranian board of peace, which you know, there are a couple things to unpackage here. First, you remember the
Gaza Board of Peace? Yeah. So far, big failure. In fact, the Financial Times is reporting that the Board of Peace is empty. It has no funding, no $1 billion per country as a membership fee has been sent. The United States hasn't sent its $7 billion, which Donald Trump promised without the authorization of Congress and sort of verbally said he was going to make it happen. Never ended up happening. Zero dollars have been sent. They are not using a World Bank account or an audited UN account. Instead, they're just using a regular JP Morgan account that Donald Trump and his team have control over, and only Donald Trump and his team get reports on. So,
other countries are like, "Well, we're just not going to send money yet." The UAE has contributed some money to help Gaza's government operate and pay salaries and establish a police force, but they're also stalling out. And people also have doubts about why should money be funneled basically through, you know, Jared Kushner or Trump's control for this as opposed to using international agencies like the UN or the World Bank. Now, of course, the second thing to unpackage is a lot of people get pissed because they're like, "Well, Obama sent him a pile of cash." Well, remember Obama sent $400 million of seized Iranian money back to Iran plus 35 years of interest. In other
words, it took 35 years to actually send that money back. In the meantime, we stuck it into treasuries, earned interest, and you should know a thing or two about compound interest. It compounds. So, they ended up getting $1.7 billion back, which is still a far cry from this $300 billion rumor. In fact, that is 176 times as much that Donald Trump might send Iran. Now, that's just a rumor we'll see. We don't know because Donald Trump's basically gone dark on us. Now we know where discussions are sitting right now. At the same time, Iran is also potentially using the back door to send money to China uh which uh you know is through their Silk Road rail network and trying to send oil to China basically through the back door and avoid Hormuz. Uh Iran
obviously wants control of maritime traffic. The United States wants a free and open straight of Hormuz like it was. Uh and then of course we still have the nuclear issues. Some of the problems here have to do with the hardliners at Iran. And this is a part that a lot of people don't even think about, but if we uh if we consider this here, Tran, I saved this. Thrron's ultra hardliners lash out at negotiators of the direct on the direction of US talks. So the guy in the picture here in the middle is Mr. Gollibuff. Gollybuff is the uh you know basically the leader of parliament and he was just reelected uh to his position with 235 votes on Monday. So he just got affirmation that you know he's
doing the right thing for the majority of these people uh in parliament. And even though he comes across as a really aggressive dude on X or Twitter, he's been pretty uh willing uh to negotiate. He goes to Pakistan. he's willing to, you know, negotiate with the Americans and the Pakistani negotiators. But there are highlininer hardliners called the Pedari factions, uh, Pedari faction. And in the Pedari faction, they say they have a very tough stance on the red lines, including they want full control of the straight of Hormuz and no discussions on the nuclear program, which even Donald Trump's memorandum of understanding would just reopen the Strait of Hormuz for a 60-day ceasefire
and postpone talks on nuclear trade. Now, some people are going to think this is too crystal bally and there's no way this is true. But I'm going to tell you a little bit about the market here because I promised you that, including the short sale sectors to watch. But first thing I want you to know is when the market opened up yesterday, I suggested that the Q's had enough energy in them to get to 739 738 in that range. In fact, that is the same range that I predicted on Wednesday that we would get to by Friday. Now, we did end up hitting that target, which I know sometimes people are like, is this just like a crystal ball or what? Just saying that's what we try to do in the alpha report.
We try to give you that insight. This isn't to be meant to be a pitch. I'm trying to educate you on where the market's going. I did not think the NASDAQ had any energy to close above that. Uh and I even said in our uh our morning live stream, hey, 741 could end up being a local top because there's not enough energy for this unless we get an actual deal signed, in which case we could go to like 744, 745 really quickly. Yesterday we ended up peaking out at 74161 and we closed at 738 which is exactly what we expected. So what else are we expecting? Well, we were expecting that stocks like Robin Hood and to some extent SoFi are getting short squeezed. And what you want to
watch for on Monday is not only if we don't get a deal are we coming off of this all-time high on NASDAQ 100. We're probably going back to the 725 level. So you want to watch 725 really important line to hold. Uh but you want to see if we can keep that short squeeze going on stocks that have been short squeezing. We talked about these earlier last week and they killed it. Palunteer, Robin Hood, SoFi have all done very well. You've seen some reversal after the uh Snowflake earnings in the software sector. But this doesn't mean just because we're getting these short-term movements, this doesn't mean that we have no risk left. In fact, the ECB is
reporting that Donald Trump's policies risk a financial crisis. Banks are concern the e the European Central Bank on Monday warned that because of Donald Trump's war with Iran that's still not ending repeatedly tra changing trade policies, tariffs are on, tariffs are off, tariff pauses, tariff reversals. We have created structural fragmentation in the global environment where lending is moving from banks into more opaque areas like private credit. Canada enters a technical recession yesterday. And we have new threats on critical infrastructure and artificial intelligence that all undermine global strength. And even though the stock market is papering over all these fears right now, we still haven't resolved
them all and we still have problems. So, with all that said, thank you so much for watching. Have a wonderful Saturday. If you've got any questions about we what we do, email us at staffme.com and I hope to be back with better news later. Goodbye and good luck. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.
