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Hey, friends, it's me, Harry Enten. And today we're discussing how Democrats and why Democrats are in the strongest position in decades. I dare say it's a historic position heading into a midterm election. And if you stay tuned till the end, we'll talk about Donald Trump and how he is in a historic position as well, and how that is fueling Democrats in the midterm opportunities. But let's start off with the economy, because as Jimmy Carville is fond of saying, it's the economy, stupid. And in the case of you, the audience, it's the economy, smarty pants. And this number really just jumps off the screen because take a look here.
When you poll Americans on how they feel about the current and future economy, we get the worst ever consumer sentiment ever. And this measure has been taken since the mid 20th century. And of course we are now in the 21st century. It is down. Get this 38% since the start of Trump's term all the way back in January of 2025, just a massive decline. And this is fueling Democrats. It's fueling Democrats on the most simple of questions. That is, you identify as a Democrat, Republican, independent, etc. And when we allocate those independents, look at this to the Democrats, Republicans, Democrats right now have a 13 point lead,
a 13 point lead on Republicans on this most basic of measure. And when we look back at prior midterm cycles at this point, this 13 point lead is bigger than any in at least 20 years. It even beats 2006, when Democrats easily took back the US House of Representatives and gained six Senate seats, which, if it happened this year, Democrats would be, yeah, that is perfect for us. We would take back the Senate as well. Now, when you look at this party, ID lead. This is fueled in part by the simplest of questions.
What's the most important problem the country is facing in your mind? And who do you trust to solve it? Well, right now Democrats. Hello. It's that same 13 points. It's that same 13 point lead that Democrats have over Republicans on which party they trust more to handle the top issue. And that look at this. This really tells the story. Look at 2022. Republicans were trusted more by 11 points or more by 11 points. This is the inverse of that.
This lead this 13 point lead. Look at woo this green line. This is very similar to what we saw all the way back in 2006, which I said is exactly what Democrats want to happen, right. Take back not just the House but take back the United States Senate as well. These figures are very similar and this very much unlike anything else on your screen. But when you put it all together, the simplest of questions, who are you going to vote for Democrats or Republicans in the midterms? Well, what are we dealing with? Well, at this point in midterm cycles, Democrats right now have a seven point advantage. And that is, again the strongest that they have had.
You got to go all the way back to 2006 when Democrats had 11 point lead. But this seven points look at this. It's more than double what Democrats had in 2018, when of course they were able to take back the US House gaining about 40 seats, maybe 41 depending on how you measure it. But the bottom line is you don't have to worry yourself with the details. That's my concern. But Democrats have a clear advantage on that. Now, I know what you're saying. Hey, Republicans have been doing all this redistricting, right? Especially in the South as of recent.
Well, this seven point lead, well, it over comes even with the redistricting. It overcomes that barrier because take a look at Democrats international House vote margin right now. Their lead seven points. What is needed in order to take back the US House? With redistricting you need only a three point advantage. Hold on. I'm getting a little parched right here. I'm getting a little parched. Maybe someone could hand me a soda. Wet. What?
There it is. You know, last week we were going into the Colas or cola. Like, I don't know what doctor Pepper exactly is. This is anything but that. This is an and zero sugar cream, which is honestly one of my favorites. Let's take a. Oh, yeah. That vanilla cream goodness really, really does stretch out one more for the road. Fantastic. Anyway as I was saying Democrats right now running well ahead of where they need to be even controlling for redistricting in terms of the US House vote.
Now the other key factor right is it's one thing to have a lead, but if you're not going to show up and vote, what difference does it make. And this tells the story. Absolutely to certain to vote in November. Democrats hey, 75% of them, when you include the Leaners say that they are absolutely certain to turn out and vote in this midterm election. Republicans, it's just 67%. Now, this is an eight point advantage, which is very, very important because essentially what that means is you can take that house lead that Democrats have. And if the likely voters, the actual voters match this,
absolutely certain to vote in November, that means that lead would be even larger, would be even larger. I feel like I'm in the movie airplane larger. Anyway. I'm not sure if that's exactly quite right, but it's how I remember in my head. But this eight point lead, it's historic. This is why I keep saying that Democrats are in a historic position heading into the midterm elections, and it is because of this.
Take a look here, okay, leading in certain to vote for midterms. At this point in the cycle, you notice a lot of the other slides have a lot of Democratic numbers on there, right. This one is mostly all red. That is that's because Republicans have historically been the ones who are more likely to turn out and vote. But as that democratic anger has risen with what's going on in Washington, as the coalitions have changed, as the Democratic coalition has become more tilted towards college educated voters who are more likely to turn out this is the first midterm cycle at this point in the cycle that I can find, in which Democrats say they are more likely to turn out and vote
than Republicans. So again, that is supercharging. what that Democratic lead actually is on the generic ballot at seven point, lead might actually be 8 or 9, ten points. When we're talking about likely voters. Now, at the beginning of this segment, I teased that we're going to talk about Donald Trump, right, and how he is supercharging this. Well, one way in which Donald Trump is absolutely supercharging this is when you just look at his ratings, look at this term, two Trump approval ratings low, all of these within the last two weeks, at least at the time that we taped
this wonderful little thing. If you're watching later on, I can't promise that you know, I can do a lot of things, but I can't actually bend time and gravity and space, etc. Look at this. Quinnipiac 34%, Ipsos 35%. New York Times 37%. CBS news 37%. Fox 39%. The bottom line is, across the board, Donald Trump is at historic lows for his second term, and all of them sub 40%. Now, why is this sub 40% so important? Because who are the other presidents who are sub 40% at this point in their second term?
Well, there are only two that I could find, Richard Nixon in 1974, which of course was the height of Watergate. You had George W Bush when, of course, the Iraq War was absolutely draining on him back in 2006. Both of these cycles. Well, you know what they feature. You know what they featured. massive Democratic gains of 2006. We mentioned it before. It keeps popping up in all these. That's a very you know, correlation isn't necessarily causation. But in this case, Democrats absolutely love that correlation. And of course, in 74, Democrats had massive gains in both the Senate
and the US House of Representatives. And of course, then Jimmy Carter was able to take back the white House two years later. Well, a Democrat, take back the white House two years, two and a half years from now. We're not to the midterms quite yet. Who's really to say? But at this point, these are the types of historical comparisons that Democrats absolutely have to love. So we've gone through the simple question, which is why Dems, why Democrats are in a historic position? Why don't you leave a comment in the comment section?
We'll see if there's something in there that we really like, and perhaps we will do it on this next go round between you and me, my dear friends. Until then, cheers.
