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In the last few minutes, Pakistan says that the United States and Iran have reached a peace deal. The accord is set to be signed in Switzerland on the 19th of June. Donald Trump has said as well that the peace deal has been reached. He says Podmus will be open. Let the oil flow. Iran has now responded as well uh saying that they forced the US into the peace deal and it will be implemented from this evening. We'll have all the latest with Nogatanopolski in Jerusalem and David Smith, the Washington's Guardian Bureau chief. Welcome to the world roundup show. Pakistan says a breakthrough has been achieved. Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif has announced that the United States and Iran have reached a peace agreement.
He's declared an imminent immediate and permanent end to military operations across all fronts, including Lebanon, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled this Friday in Switzerland, June 19th. Donald Trump has now also confirmed the deal is complete. He cited in the Wall Street Journal as saying that Iran had agreed not to obtain nuclear weapons, the straight of Hormus would reopen, and the US naval blockade would be lifted. Trump has declared, "Let the oil flow." Now on state news, Tehran has signaled its approval. State media claiming Iran forced Washington to accept the agreement. Officials there saying a ceasefire announcement will start tonight. Maritime traffic in the Gulf
will be coordinated with Oman and details of the memorandum of understanding will be released after the formal signing. They've also stressed the agreement does not imply trust in the United States. Let's get more with Noga Tanopolski straight away. No, just tell me what do you imagine the feeling is from the side of the Israelis? Oh, I think for the side of Israelis, we know that there's been tremendous anger today and there's quite a lot of fear for the Israelis. The contents of this memorandum of understanding or peace deal, whatever it is going to turn out to be, is so far unknown. Israel was not part of this negotiation at all, but is uh implicated in it. Of course, we do know another detail from um a New York
Times report from Iranian government sources. Iran now says that it has called off its planned attack on Israel tonight. So, what we see is Iran basically declaring victory uh with certain important details. For example, it is now asserting its own sovereign rights over what was before the war international waters in the straight of Hormuz. It is claiming to have a new cooperation with Oman, a country with which it hasn't always had good ties. And it has imposed on the United States basically its vision for how Lebanon should be run. um including the insertion possibly, you know, with some kind of legitimacy ofah that the Lebanese government has been trying to get rid of. So this is a very big deal for Iran. From the Iranian side, we have
no comment thus far either on curtailing its ballistic missiles that have caused Israel and all of the Gulf uh states tremendous harm or about any curtailing of its nuclear program. Now, Donald Trump's statement is a bit of a trick because what he said is that the Iranians have agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons. That in fact is what Iran has asserted all along for decades. Nonetheless, international authorities, especially the IEA, the UN nuclear watchdog, claimed that they were indeed pursuing nuclear weapons, lying about it. And the Obama plan from now 11 years ago, known as the JCPOA, the famous
nuclear deal with Iran, is the only thing that did curtail Iran's gallop ahead to at least get to become a borderline nuclear weapon nation. That was uh the deal was abandoned by Donald Trump with the urging of Prime Minister Netanyahu in uh 2018. And those were just the only three years in which Iran really was held back and also was scrutinized by international authorities. The situation now appears to be something of a wild west with uh no commitment on the Iranian part regarding its uh ballistic missiles um new powers over this allimportant straight of Hormuz and absolutely nothing of substance regarding its nuclear programs. I just want to say again, we have had no comment from the Israeli government, but for Israel and
separately for Netanyahu, this is a very, very bad night. A very bad night. Uh, let's just touch on what you just talked about with nuclear with David Smith. David, there was a Wall Street Journal article uh citing what Donald Trump's intentions were with the deal ahead of it being announced. uh and it said that uh Trump would require that nuclear was part of it and they would have to uh dismantle their nuclear program but there was no rush. He said basically uh that any agreement from Iran to obtain nuclear weapons would not would be included. So let me just rephrase that. He said that the deal would include an agreement from Iran not to obtain nuclear weapons and an immediate opening of Hmmus. But he also expressed no
urgency to extract nuclear material from Iran, saying that would come later. The devil's always in the detail. We carry on saying this. Do we imagine that was in any kind of agreement? Well, uh, yes, we will have to keep imagining. We don't know for sure yet. We haven't seen the details. And I think this memorandum which effectively just really extends the ceasefire rather than being a fully fleshed out peace deal may well not um delve into too many of those details. Um even though of course from the beginning Donald Trump has you know he's given various explanations for this war when it launched. But the central one appears to have been uh ensuring Iran
never has a nuclear weapon. And here in Washington on Sunday, some of Trump's allies, Republicans in the Senate, were uh trying to make the case that Barack Obama was only postponing um Iran's nuclear program, whereas Trump will make sure it never ever happens. Um however uh media reporting around the negotiations in recent weeks suggest um it'll be impossible to block it forever. That so much of the infrastructure is still in place. So much of the expertise is still in Iran um despite the US uh claims of destroying many facilities. In fact, many are intact. And um I think we're still going to see stumbling blocks um for example over the enriched uranium or uh nuclear dust as Donald Trump calls
it. Uh obviously on the American side they would love all of it to be removed or suitably uh down blended um as they say. Uh Iran I think is going to uh haggle over that and perhaps agree to a slower schedule or uh you know for some of the material to be removed. But uh you know all these points remain in play in uh in the coming weeks. And so um while I think you will see Trump trying to take a victory lap tonight at his birthday celebration, in fact the you know the hard negotiations are still to come with the potential for this conflict to flare up again. That's exactly the point which it feels like we've landed on with Iran's deputy foreign minister. Uh let me just take
this to no right now. David, thank you so much because we've heard from him. He seems to be the mouthpiece right now of Iran uh on this deal. He says that negotiations for a final deal will be held in a period of 60 days and that just feels like we are kicking the can down the road ever so slightly. He says the 60-day period negotiations will focus on ending sanctions and uh basically that once those sanctions are lifted uh that's when negotiations will really start in earnest but for now the fighting stops. Your take? Are you asking me? Yes. No. Sorry. Look, this is a zero commitment victory for Iran. There are few other ways to spin it. Um, we don't know what Iran is will or won't be willing to give. But
moreover, we don't know whether Trump will have any interest in resolving this very sticky, very difficult nuclear problem within 60 days. Uh he will definitely be deeply inshed with the in the uh midterms by then and any hint of a return to war in Iran to again possible a spike in uh gas, American gas prices, petrol prices. We also don't know how fast those prices will be able to go down given the depth of the uh production um and distribution problems caused by this blockage. We don't know what will happen in the straight of Hermuz and we don't know what will happen withah. Will they hold their fire this time or will they continue uh shooting at Israel with Israel responding while Iran claims to say, "Well, we're in a deal with the
United States and everything is fine." This is not that different a deal from what we saw two months ago and we saw how that quickly unraveled. So again, we have to see. But Donald Trump may want to simply turn around to other issues. Now, he has hinted he and his uh secretary of state Marco Rubio that they may want to turn to Cuba next uh President Trump may be distracted or simply not wish to return to this issue. And again, that would leave Israel and the Gulf States, but Israel definitely exposed to Iran's nuclear threats and to its ballistic missiles. David, as we're speaking, Noga mentioned oil. It has now slipped 4% after that announcement. It's reached early March levels. Uh, is this
Donald Trump's perfect gift to himself? I guess so. Um, and uh, American consumers have been hurting because of oil, but so have markets around the world and they'll be grateful for any sign of uh, stability here. Um a more big picture point um I think some critics have said actually Donald Trump's real gift to the world here is he's underlined the importance of renewable energy uh solar and wind and so on because uh when you depend so much on somewhere like the straight of Hormuz or on other um countries which are often authoritarian um the oil price you know you're you're at their mercy um so that's that's one of the lessons here um I think also worth noting of course in his social media post the prime minister
of Pakistan talked about um an official signing ceremony happening in Switzerland on uh Friday the 19th of June. Um there's some reporting in the US now that Vice President JD Vance might be there or perhaps Donald Trump himself might go um again to enjoy uh the theater of this. Um but yes um still so many issues will be unresolved whether it's uh the nuclear program uh whether it's the future of the strait of Hormuz and whether Iran having gained the knowledge of just how much power it has there will try to uh levy tolls on uh on shipping. Um and I think both Trump and Netanyahu will face uh tough questions from their own citizens about uh what did you actually gain from this war? the list of gains is quite
short. Uh but the list of negatives include uh so many civilians killed, so much money spent, so much damage including to other countries in the region that came under attack from Iran. And now not even a hint of regime change in Iran. Even Trump um no longer talks about that uh that goal has been abandoned. And that's a terrible failure for uh Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. Of course, Noga, that terrible failure is not only being felt by Netanyahu and his camp, uh, but also by the Iranians, which Trump vowed to defend earlier on in the year. And I just wonder if you can take us into the minds of those people right now. I mean, I know it must be a bit difficult to venture there, but now they're hearing all of this and
peace has been agreed upon. Obviously, no fighting means no death, but what else does it bring with it? Well, it may mean a different sort of death. Iran is in the midst of numerous crises, including a water crisis, including ai economic and financial crisis. Things are not yet easy. We have crucially not yet heard about what Iranian assets may be unfrozen, how many billions of dollars may flow into Iran. This whole afternoon here was rife with rumors about really money that the United States might have been dangling over Iran uh while it was trying to persuade Iran not to attack Israel tonight. actual cash reward for not attacking Israel tonight. So there's a lot that we don't know about. And I think for the people of Iran, the
biggest memory I think the two things that they will remember are, forgive me for saying this, but Donald Trump's lie, his promise, help is on its way, which turned out to be the hollowest of promises. And then the fact that they were cut off from the world, this more than two monthl long internet cut off for young Iranians. It's a young country in Iran, very well-connected, very technologically advanced. And you know, it was thrown back several eras by the government's ability to simply cut them off from the world. There's also been a tremendous crackdown against anyone even remotely uh presenting or questioning presenting a different view or questioning the government. So I think
that this is at least for some people in Iran it will be a huge relief at least not to have bombs falling but for many it will also be a moment of heartbreak of realizing that there really is no one who is going to help them unless they find help from within. A very somber take there, Noa, but absolutely realistic. Unfortunately, uh on the flip side of that, David, I'm sure we're going to be expecting huge celebrations outside the White House lawns just in a couple of hours. I know it's quite a jarring juosition. Uh but Donald Trump, I mean, we can probably expect him to gloat on about the fact that he's reached peace in front of all of his supporters there at the UFC event tonight.
I'd have thought so. And Donald Trump does specialize in jarring juositions. We've seen plenty of them. And uh this was already a bizarre one. The hallowed turf of the White House uh South Lawn, the place of so many dignified occasions. But tonight we have some cage fighting coming up. Um United uh Fighting Championships um uh which is this kind of blood sport men belting each other. very um red-blooded, aggressive uh violent stuff with a crowd um roaring them on. Um also fears of uh humidity, of lots of bugs or even mosquitoes in the air. And I'm looking out of my window here because there have been predictions of thunderstorms, but um no sign of those yet. And so in the midst of all that, to be talking about a
very um somber moment um in the Iran war, uh it will be strange. But yes, I'm sure Trump will revel in it and try to spin this as a great victory for the US military and his own diplomacy and maybe treat that as a watershed and hope that um Americans and the media narrative uh then shifts to other issues uh which suits him better as the midterm elections uh hove into view. Um, but yeah, it's it's quite a uh quite a way to spend his 80th birthday night. No, I see you smirking there. Just uh imagining this all unfold. Uh we're in a new phase of politics, aren't we?
We are. I'm not really smirking, but I'm thinking that this cage fight in a way can is a metaphor for the way global politics is working right now. Men whacking each other without any clear sense of purpose. Um, of course, for Netanyahu, the continuation of this war and his ability to continue declaring that he is defending Israeli security interests uh completely contradicted Donald Trump's increasingly urgent need to get this war over with and to say that he ended a war ahead of the midterms. hard to know if it will really help him given the polls that we're seeing and the doubts um that many of his own voters are having about Donald Trump. I'm thinking particular about
Latino voters in the United States that really swung hard for Donald Trump and now appear to have swung as hard against him. We can't guess, but we think, you know, we have to think that this may not work. they may not have the time to work for Netanyahu who faces elections under law by October 27th. Uh so earlier than the US midterms and these are not midterms for Netanyahu. This is will be a reelection bid assuming the elections go forth. Um this will be a very difficult argument to make. A shockingly difficult argument I would imagine. Netanyahu is the perennial survivor in politics as Donald Trump has seemed to be. If I can just get let our audience revive and well just rehash the moment where Pakistan announced this
ceasefire. I do believe we have that official statement by their prime minister. We can just play it for you. This is what was announced just a couple of minutes ago. Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been reached. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The official signing ceremony will be on Friday the 19th of June in Switzerland. We can now turn to Nega Moavari, political commentator, Iranian American political commentator. She joins us over the phone. And as always, Nega, thank
you so much because you can provide some fresh insight. Just a first reaction uh to this deal being reached. Well, it's you know a surprise as in the timing although they haven't signed yet. So the caveat is that the date of the signing is announced as Friday. Um but it was you know very difficult work. It is a somewhat historic deal with a historic role played by Pakistan. Um it was reached in very difficult times during wartime with escalations just today Israeli escalation and Lebanon which was very much aimed at sabotaging the process u but nevertheless they push through and so I think they're ready for the next stage which is going to be even more difficult and complicated because
this is not everything. This is just an end to the war as they say a permanent end to the war regional as Iran had wanted it to be and then there will be another period of two months where they will discuss further uh the nuclear program sanctions relief and else but this seems to be a very significant moment. Nego what do you think was the defining moment that actually brought these waring parties together? uh what has changed in the past 24 hours even uh that both sides America and Iran and mediators Pakistan have now all of a sudden sung from the exact same himsh sheet. I'm not sure if anything specific happened uh in the past 24 hours. This has been sort of a process in the making
and until the last moment they were hashing out the details. But I think overall if we look at the trajectory of this war, what happened is that President Trump with conviction you know and pressure from uh Israel went into this war thinking that this would be a cakewalk that this would be regime change fast and easy. Iran would be something similar to another Venezuela. And you know that was the whole rhetoric destroying their army, destroying their navy. And I think over the three months trajectory, what Iran showed is that yes, they were the underdog attacked by two world superpowers, nuclear powers with military supremacy, but they also had their own cards to play. They
launched an asymmetric defense. They opened new fronts in this war. Their allies joined them in Lebanon, in Iraq, from Yemen. And the Iranians also had control over the straight of hormones which I think was the defining point in this war that strategic geographic advantage that Iran has over the straight of hormones. And it seems like President Trump in the US just couldn't get them to reopen the straight with force. And so this brought them really to the negotiating table. And essentially I would say this is back to square one because the straight of hormones wasn't even a problem before the war. It was a problem created by this war. So none of the goals of the war have been achieved, the stated goals
by the US and Israel and in fact a new problem was created and now that goal is achieved as far as resolving this problem. So this brings us to a point that I would say the majority of the global community and regional uh neighbors have been making that you know this war was so pointless and there was no need for so much violence and destruction if you wanted to just go back to square one and start negotiating a nuclear deal. A very good point there Nega. Let's take that to David Smith. Uh David, what NEGA's saying there is that the status quo has now been changed where it need not have uh because especially with the straight of Hornmouse, the United States
very much not coming out with the best reputation here is what they've done to world markets and now setting a precedent as well for uh countries taking control of geographical regions like Iran has done and uh especially when they're backed in the corner doing it quite effectively because now they uh as we have come to a consensus have coerced the United States into agreeing uh possibly more unfavorable terms than they otherwise would have. Yes, I've heard that comparison made. For example, could the Houthies um take control of certain areas with the use of drones? Will other groups around the world um now realize that uh they do have these choke points over global
energy markets? And even when they're relatively small in terms of military might, they can have an outsized impact. Uh because I think one of the lessons um the world will be taking from the last few months is that not even the Goliaths of the world are all conquering um the United States uh through tremendous uh firepower at this. And of course, we heard those rather bombastic briefings from Pete Hex, the defense secretary or styles himself as Secretary of War, uh claiming total annihilation. Um that there was massive destruction on the Iranian side. And yet, um Iran proved resilient and was still able to attack countries in the region. Uh still protect its uh missile centers. um and
to the to this day is still um uh the regime is still in place. Um and so um the US I think has set some worrying uh precedents here. Um it is like uh in that sense Russia and Ukraine showing the limitations of power. The only thing that could have changed the calculus of course would have been if uh Donald Trump had actually sent in ground troops. Um and politically that was never on the cards. um his own support base um remembers well uh particularly the Iraq war and also how long things took in Afghanistan and I think um Iran was always aware of that calculation. Um they were following the d domestic dynamics of this. They could see um the unpopularity of this war
among Trump's own supporters. they're aware he's under pressure with midterm elections and so they were happy to run down the clock and uh and yes this straight of Hormuz example um does set a very worrying president now for other parts of the world and as I was touching on earlier perhaps um will encourage some countries to pursue uh green energy instead which is not similarly vulnerable. Uh, green energy is something that I would love to get to, but I think Donald Trump is going to talk about that at the G7 summit coming up here in France. Uh, but as this situation moves, we do have another fresh voice. Tara Kangaloo, global affairs journalist and author of the heartbeat of Iran, a very popular guest here on the World Roundup Show and on
France 24. Tara, thank you so much. Uh, just a first reaction in terms of what you imagine the people of Iran are feeling right now. Excellent question. And in fact, I'm looking down because I'm getting messages from sources and friends and contacts in Iran. And this is from a longtime source of mine. He's also a journalist. and he said, "We never thought that Donald Trump nor the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu truly care about the Iranian people, but there was a moment where we thought that their interests have aligned with the interests of the Iranian people, and that is to move beyond the Islamic regime of Iran and
essentially to get rid of this regime." But today um Donald Trump's tweet and the confirmation from the Pakistani officials and also the Islamic regime officials tell us that is not the case. And this again in the words of the source of mind just moments ago guaranteed the longevity of the regime in Iran. And so many people in Iran of course will wake up disappointed because what happened during the course of this 40 plus day active war um a war that has continued to over 107 days today of course um has served um as essentially um a an adversity um to their already uh crippling economy that they were struggling with prior to the war. um where a police state is now governing with a regime and a hardline apparatus that is more emboldened than
before. Um so life for ordinary Iranians in Iran is worse than how it was in the beginning of this war against a collapsed economy. Um and they're left with um a younger more emboldened regime. And this is not what they wanted and asked the world for. But I think once again we're reminded that countries don't have friends rather interests and Donald Trump showed that his interests are not aligned with that of the people of Iran. Tara, thank you so much. We'll stay with you but let's just go to Nega first. Nega, we're talking about optics. Just quickly, in terms of Iran's legitimacy and uh that new emboldened young uh regime under the uh new Ayatollah who
has remained conspicuous by his absence. Uh I just wonder now, you know, what kind of message is going to be sent on the streets of Tehran and also what is that going to say to Iran's regional neighbors? Well, it depends on who you ask on the streets of Iran. You know, of course, the entirety of the state has this new gain confidence and this really solidified uh them as, you know, the only country in the region that can fight two superpowers who came for an overthrow and they were able to essentially uh defend the sovereignty, the independence, the system and bring that these superpowers uh to the negotiating table in three months. That's very much a narrative that they're telling themselves and it's not
wrong. But internally also because the war is not just on one front. It's not just kinetic. There's also a economic war on Iran by the US severe US sanctions and that has really devastated the Iranian economy. It hasn't resulted in a in any policy change, but it has really made life difficult for middle class working-class Iranians. The government needs to deal with that and they haven't yet. So post war, if there isn't economic relief coming out of these negotiations and translating into the everyday life of the Iranians, those grievances are going to remain. We see protest after protest with economic, political, social grievances that the state has to answer. The divide between
state and society. That gap, that widening gap is something that they need to answer. That was put on hold. That form of disscent and protest was put on hold despite the rhetoric coming from Israel and the US that the Iranians are going to rise up when we come from the sky. they will rise up and overthrow the system or the regime. That didn't happen. But it doesn't mean descent isn't there. So that was put on pause. And what this war did in fact, which is interesting, is they created more nationalism in the country. A rally around the flag for supporters of the Islamic Republic, the system, but also among the ordinary people, a lot of opposition to the status quo. It increased nationalism because people
realized that these quote unquote freedom bombs or help coming to the Iranian people wasn't really helping. The war started by attacking a school full of elementary age children, hospitals, universities. Twothirds of the targets have been civilian infrastructure. Thousands dead uh in Iran, thousands in Lebanon. So, the war has just been very devastated for civilians. And people who were not cleareyed about how there isn't such thing as a surgical war that can come and magically just assassinate and change a regime and go are now realizing that no war is very much devastating for civilians more than actual uh governments. And so I think that rise in nationalism is something that the state, you know, if they're wise, can capitalize on and try to uh sort of
reduce that gap between state and society and then really address the grievances. If not, there's just going to be more descent, more protests, resurfacing, and just more anger at the government. That's uh what we can possibly expect if the situation doesn't improve economically and also the sanctions relief. We don't know as you keep on saying and as we've heard from Noga as well. We have no idea uh what is entailed in that sanctions relief and if it may come to pass the way that the Iranians want. Uh Noga, let me just go back to you uh because we are now over an hour since Pakistan announced uh the end of the fighting and we have still not heard from Israel as far as I can see.
Absolutely not. We haven't we have not heard a word from Israel. uh from any Israeli figure. And again, the United States appears to have signed on, including on Israel's behalf. If I understood Donald Trump's message correctly, this is going to imply a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon. He does not say an end to fighting in Beirut. He said an end of all military operations in Lebanon. This could have very serious implications. This will have serious implications for Israel. And I think that once again in these very bumpy few weeks, we see an Israeli government that simply doesn't know how to handle it. I would like to add one more thing. Uh, Prime Minister
Netanyahu has gotten himself mixed up with personal and national issues regarding Donald Trump. You may remember that back in January, he asked Donald Trump to help push a pardon for him. That hasn't prospered. Netanyao continues to be on trial, but as the trial advances, he seems more and more intent to get that pardon. Israel doesn't have a pardon system like the United States. But of course, the support of the president of the United States is a massive boon to him. And if he's now lost that or on the other hand, if he now still needs help from Trump, this will impact most likely how Netanyahu responds to this very uh bad, you know, hand of cards that he's been handed tonight.
Well, so much to digest there, Nogga. Uh I do wonder, you know, if this could be the final nail in the proverbial political coffin of Netanyahu, but again, we carry on saying this. Uh I want to take this back to uh Tara. Uh we've got word that Hornmus will be reopening on Friday after the deal is signed. That is directly from Donald Trump. But we also talking about what this new look Hormmus is going to be like. In fact, even as late as yesterday, Iran said that it would still keep its sword over the straight of Hormus and now it's saying that it is going to be directly coordinating with Oman for full traffic um control if we can say just what are we looking at in terms of the authorities and how is Honus going to be managed from now on?
important question and again I'm looking as the news is coming in from all sides in including Iranian uh state media and Iranian officials. A few things for us to remember from this very moment that we're speaking and by the way I don't know if you talked about this earlier but um Donald Trump just turned 80 years old and this announcement um I'm sure he will be making um a big deal out of it in the coming hours as he is set to talk on this occasion. Uh but to that point um in his tweet very interestingly he said um the tollfree opening of the street of hormos well the Iranians will argue that Mr. president, this is not up to you. And some may argue that uh Trump can say whatever he wants to say, but the reality may defer
from his statement because as you mentioned uh the Iranians along with the Omani government want to create a new architecture when it comes to the movement around the street of Hormos. And in fact uh the foreign minister of Iran Arachi in his live uh state uh interview rather uh less than 24 hours ago uh he said that along with Oman Iran will issue a statement as to what this new mechanism will look like. Of course, we have not yet re, you know, received or rather seen this new statement um and and details of that are yet to be revealed, but I don't imagine we will go back to a situation um of what hormones and the uh transport and movement around this choke point look like prior to this war. But I think again we need to remember that both
sides whether it be the United States or Iran want to project power. They want to show force. They want to um uh reflect uh that they have the upper hand and flex their muscles. And I think that's what we're reading in these rhetoric and these sentiments. Also mind you that from now until Friday where this deal is presumably going to be signed in Switzerland, a country that was host uh to the previous um uh agreement between Iran and the United States uh in 2015. uh there's a whole lot that can happen um in this uh six or seven days and of course the important bit and the hard part will start after that which is the second phase of this deal and that's 60 days uh that will uh presumably
discuss Iran's nuclear program and the issue of sanctions that is perhaps pivotal the most pivotal to the Islamic regime of Iran the lifting of sanctions and of course the unfreezing of its $24 billion frozen assets. David Smith, 6 days and then another 60 is a lot of time for something to go wrong yet again. Uh how precarious are we? Uh even though all three parties including the mediators Pakistan have now said that a deal has been reached. Oh, I think it's tremendously fragile. There's still um a lot that uh could go wrong. Um you just waiting for one military skirmish to spiral out of control or uh some uh diplomatic uh blunder along the line. Um just listening to the others um my mind went
back to the start of this uh war uh when Donald Trump uh delivered that um speech. It came out around midnight and he talked about uh this was a once in a-lifetime opportunity for the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the regime. And I think Trump's critics will now just say how glib that was. Um how naive um just how little understanding of the region. Um some of those critics will wonder, you know, why was this action not taken a few months earlier when Iranian people were in the streets uh protesting because the um the upshot of it all of course is that you know early in the war a school was hit and children died. There have been other civilian casualties. Uh the Iranian
people are worse off um at the uh at the end of this um and everyone else is worse off too. And it does seem a huge military and diplomatic folly on so many levels. Um and that includes this um increasingly fraught relationship now between the US and uh and Israel. Um, of course, it's been a fairly wild 24 hours, including that, um, Israeli attack on, um, Lebanon and, uh, Trump calling Netanyahu and once again using some foul language to describe him and, uh, just the tension there. Um and Trump tried to make this point that I um I helped keep you out of jail, he's been saying in recent weeks. So the personal favors uh just um just really it feels like it's unraveling and I think that um will continue to underpin the process in uh in the coming weeks. Um Trump
I suspect will try to wash his hands of this now and delegate it to some of his other officials and uh and hope attention turns elsewhere. But uh here just one flash point away from uh the whole thing flaring up again. Uh David, thank you so much. I'm going to let you go, but uh I just want to uh expand on what David was just talking about. We do have now officially that truth social post by Donald Trump uh saying that the great deal will bring peace and security uh to the whole region. We're going to get this up right now. He says, "Many presidents have tried to make peace with Iran and all have failed before me. The leaders of the region have for the first time found
a president who can help them achieve real peace with the opening of the strait of uh upon the signing of the deal on Friday for purposes of mine removal. Oil will flow on both ends again for the region and the world." President Donald J. Trump. Uh, Nogga, uh, just if I could get a final reaction from you for the night. What a night it has been. Absolutely. And, you know, we should note no previous American president has tried to make peace with the Islamic Republic of Iran. It was never on the table. And there was also never an actual war between the United States and
Iran, necessitating peace before this. Iran has always been viewed as uh I would say threshold nuclear state that is increasingly dangerous. That was the aim of President Obama's uh joint plan of action to try and curb and successfully curb Iran's nuclear ambitions. It didn't go beyond that, but it did succeed in that. And now it seems as if we have an unrestrained Iran that is going to be allowed to move forward. Donald Trump has zero achievements to show for this war. In fact, he's handed uh the control over the straight of Hormuz to the Iranians and it appears increasingly clear that he will hand over at least uh quite a significant
number of uh billions of dollars to Iran in seized assets. This doesn't even take into account the sanctions relief Iran is demanding. And Iran is even demanding compensation for war damage. And Israel will find itself with uh equal or greater uh threats from Iran and equal and continuing threats around its various borders uh that was supposed to have been resolved. So as David said, it's a very fragile uh situation. I will just say in terms of the ongoing negotiations that are supposed to start uh within 60 days, I don't think there are any guarantees of that right now and Donald Trump may end up just satisfied to have the straight of hormones opened even if it involves tolls to Iran and just want to move on.
So a peace or a negative piece at that Noa, thank you so much. Now I'm going to let you go and just finish off with Tara Kangaloo because Tara we are just getting uh information from Iran's MEHR on the memorandum of understanding May news agency and they say uh on that memorandum there is a necessity for US and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran amounting to at least $300 billion. There we go. And this is something by the way that Donald Trump said in between his lines just a few days ago that Iran would need a reconstruction and there is a whole lot of investment potential investment to be made there.
And this is just fascinating because if we look at history and we look at that entire region and I'm going to take Syria as an example that entire country was destroyed over the course of um over a decade nearly uh 15 years and right now many people many states many countries uh are investing there and will make a whole lot of money off the back of innocent people and innocent civilians who've lost their livelihood in a war that quite frankly did not make sense to them um in a regime that we still don't know much about um being led by a former you know al-Qaeda militant and right now we are seeing a regime in Iran that as I said is more emboldened and more hardline consolidated by an RGC uh that is essentially uh governing in a police
state fashion off the back of innocent Iranian civilians who risk their lives on the street telling the world that we want to move beyond this regime that we are not happy with the current conditions of our lives and so this regime has stayed and Donald Trump is presumably interested in making a peace with this same regime. So anytime we hear him say the regime has changed we need to be reminded that is not the case and the price has been paid for ordinary people and we need to ask was this war worth it and if so for who? And that goes back to your question of investment and possibly maybe we would see a deal where the a day when the United States would make investments in
Iran. And we have to ask ourselves who would that benefit. Would that benefit the people of Iran or the Islamic regime that has stayed and in the words of again a source of mine that I spoke with before coming on the program is now more emboldened and more vicious uh and angrier than ever before. Tara Kungaloo, thank you on those words. And just a final update, Iran's MEHR once again saying that the draft uh Iran US memorandum of understanding calls for the release of $24 billion in Iranian blocked funds before negotiations can uh continue. So that uh is that where we wrap up this edition. Thank you to all my guests. Thank you to all my analysts and I will see you soon here for more here on the World Roundup Show in France 24.
