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Ukraine has a ballistic missile problem. This is no big secret, as every leader in Ukraine, from Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself down, has urged Western nations to provide more missile interceptors so Ukraine can handle Russia's scourge from the skies. Those interceptors aren't coming. So, Ukraine has done what it does best. When Plan A fails, create a devastating Plan B that ruins everything that Russia is trying to accomplish. Ukraine has found a genius way to make Russia's ballistic missiles worthless. A new favorite target has been established, and Putin will be weeping in one of his underground bunkers as he watches his devious winter plot fall to pieces.
Ukraine's new target is simple: The launchers. In an October 11 interview with Ukrainian national broadcaster Suspilne, Ukraine's Defense Minister, Yevhenii Khmara, revealed that Ukraine knows that it can't shoot enough of Russia's ballistic missiles out of the sky. To account for that, Ukraine has switched targets, and a renewed focus has been placed on the launchers Russia is using to fire its ballistic missiles in the first place. It's the "archer rather than the arrow" strategy. Take away the means to launch, and the missiles disappear.
Ukraine has been busy over the last month and a half. Khmara says that Ukraine's anti-missile forces have located, tracked, and struck eight of Russia's ballistic missile launchers between September and early October. Of the eight, three have been destroyed outright, while the other five have been damaged. Those five could be brought back into the fray. However, as you'll learn a little later, Ukraine is already expanding its strategy to take away the sites that Russia needs to repair its missiles and launchers.
We're about to dig deeper. But before we do, this channel is built by real people who care about getting the story right. Subscribe, join the conversation below, and consider becoming a member to support human-made military reporting and unlock exclusive content. Khmara declares that Ukraine's attacks on launchers and launch sites have already forced Russia into changing some of its intended ballistic missile strikes, as the launchers evaporate under Ukrainian fire. And chief among Ukraine's targets are S-400 systems. Mid-September saw Ukraine take out a pair of S-400 launchers in Russia's Bryansk
Oblast. The New Voice of Ukraine reported on this strike at the time, noting that at least one of the two launchers Ukraine hit was struck with a long-range FP-1 drone. More evidence, if any were needed, came from the Exilenova+ Telegram channel, which simply shared a photo of the S-400 on the side of a road. Little more than a burned-out husk, the system is clearly destroyed and will be useless to Russia from now on. "But hold on a second…" you're probably thinking. You know what the S-400 is. It's supposed to be one of Russia's primary air defense systems.
The clue is in the name: S-400s may be capable of launching missiles, but those missiles are intended to intercept other missiles, not attack targets on the ground. You're absolutely correct. However, Russia hasn't been using its S-400s for their intended purpose. Over the last few months, Russia has started to use S-400s to launch ballistic missiles at targets in Ukraine. We can speculate as to why, with thoughts ranging from Russia having run out of traditional launchers to the Kremlin wanting to take advantage of the mobility of the S-400.
But the fact is that it's happening, and this is a strategy that Russia seems intent on following. On October 12, United24 Media reported that Russia has pulled some of its S-400 air defense systems away from the Kapustin Yar testing range. That assertion is supported by footage posted on Telegram by Ukraine's Security Service, which seems to show the rare 51P6A variants of the S-400 being moved out of storage at this testing site. This particular version of the S-400 is mounted on the MZKT-7930 Astrolog chassis, rather than the Russian-made BAZ-64022.
Back in 2022, satellite images showed that there were about 30 of these rare launchers at Kapustin Yar. Now, only 14 remain. Not that the rarity matters to Ukraine. The reason we bring this up is to first show that Russia is making even the rarest and most valuable of its S-400s operational, and second to show that Ukraine is still capable of taking these air-defense systems that have been turned into ballistic missile launchers out of the game. The S-400s that Ukraine has hit since September all appear to be the rarer variant, United24 Media reports.
S-400s that have been turned into ballistic missile strike systems aren't the only targets that have ended up on Ukraine's docket. Among the eight launchers destroyed since September are several used to fire Iskander missiles at Ukraine, Euromaidan Press reports. That brings us nicely back to something we touched on earlier. Strikes against launchers are of immense value to Ukraine. However, five of the eight launchers not being completely destroyed opens up the possibility of repair. And even without taking that aspect into consideration,
ballistic missiles and their launchers need regular maintenance to stay operational. So, Ukraine has expanded its strategy. On top of the launchers, it's attacking the sites that Russia relies upon to keep everything it needs for its horrific aerial strikes maintained. In an October 14 report, Defense Express revealed that Ukraine has also carried out an attack against a facility in Russia's Kursk region. You may remember this border region. It's the one in which Ukraine carried out a counter-invasion back in August 2024, forcing Putin to acknowledge once and for all that his war has come to Russia.
Russia may have eventually pushed Ukraine's troops out of Kursk. But the border region is still extremely vulnerable. That's what we saw on October 13, as Ukraine targeted a repair facility used to keep Iskander-M tactical missile systems up and running. That facility carried out repairs on both the transporter-loader vehicles these missile systems use and the self-propelled launchers that are vital to getting Iskander-M missiles into the air in the first place. What we're seeing from Ukraine here is a layered strategy. As Ukraine faces more difficulties in shooting ballistic missiles out of the skies, it turns its attention to the launchers. However, hits don't guarantee destruction.
So, to ensure that Russia can't get damaged missile launchers operational again, the facilities needed to repair those launchers are also going down. It's brilliant by Ukraine. And if Putin had been paying attention to his Ukrainian counterpart, he might have seen this coming. We take you back to August 23. On that date, Zelenskyy made an interesting announcement that would go on to shape Ukraine's strategy for dealing with Russia's ballistic missile threat.
"Today we have another success. We cannot provide many details because of the sensitivity of the operation, but the fact remains. We struck an Iskander launcher near our borders," Zelenskyy declared. Ukraine's president went on to declare that Ukraine's forces have started to hunt down Russian launchers with the goal of preventing ballistic missile strikes. "There is another tactic, and it is more difficult. We developed it ourselves - hunting down their nearby launch sites from which ballistic missiles are fired.
This is a separate effort, a separate program, a separate operation," Zelenskyy revealed. Putin…Zelenskyy told you that this was coming. No wonder you're crying in a bunker somewhere. You're probably asking yourself how Ukraine managed to hit eight more ballistic missile launchers between September and October when you were told that this was going to happen. Surely, your patsies must have installed air defenses at the various launch sites that hosted these launchers! Russia's inability to stop Ukraine's long-range weapons from doing their damage
likely has a little something to do with how stretched the country's air defenses are after almost five years of a war that was meant to be over in a few days. Ukraine isn't shy about telling us how many of Russia's air defense systems it has dismantled. According to the country's Ministry of Finance, Russia has lost 1,704 anti-aircraft warfare systems as of October 14. That figure includes launchers, radars, and chassis used to transport these systems. This sheer scale of losses is clearly taking a toll on Russia, not least because the country is so massive that it would be almost impossible to defend
every potential target, even if Russia's air defense stockpiles were at full strength. That's not us speculating here. Back in March, Russian State Duma deputy Andrei Gurulyov revealed that Russia's military now lacks the air defenses needed to create a full protective shield against Ukraine's long-range strikes. That claim was backed up by the head of Russia's Security Council, Sergei Shoigu (Sehr-GAY Shoy-GOO, who said that no region of Russia can feel safe from Ukraine's drone strikes. What all of this tells us is that Russia is now being forced to prioritize the sites that it defends with its decreasing stockpile of air defenses.
Apparently, the eight ballistic missile launchers Ukraine has hit since September didn't make the cut. And Russia just paid the price. Before we move on, we have to point out the glaring example of idiocy that we see in all of this. Maybe you've already spotted it… Russia is using S-400 air defense systems as ballistic missile launchers rather than using them for their intended purpose. In what world does that make sense, especially when Russia clearly has an air defense shortage? It boggles the mind. But then, we could say that about so many of Putin's strange and increasingly deluded decisions since he launched his invasion.
Now, we come to why Ukraine has decided to alter its strategy so dramatically. Russian launchers are being targeted, and there are two clear reasons why. Before we get into those reasons, this is a reminder that you're watching The Military Show. If you're getting value from our content, there is so much more where this comes from. Subscribe and enable notifications so you're among the first to see what we have coming next. So, why target the launchers? After all, doing so is no easy task. What Ukraine is doing here isn't a simple case of identifying some launch sites and then letting its drones fly. As Anatoliy Khrapchynskyi, who is a defense contractor
and a reserve Air Force officer, points out, these launchers are constantly on the move. He says that it takes Russia about 20 minutes to deploy a ballistic missile launch system, especially when using a system like the S-400. Once deployed and used, that system can then be moved to a new launch site. Throw in the added complication of most of Russia's missile launches happening at night, and Ukraine has a very short window to pull off some very complex strikes. The fact that Ukraine is hitting launchers at all is extremely impressive. And these are the reasons why Ukraine is taking this approach.
First, there's the deterrent aspect. Ukraine actually scoring hits against launchers in the border regions tells Russia that none of its launchers are safe. No matter how difficult the strike may be, Ukraine seems to be capable of pulling it off. The Kremlin knows that Ukraine has the intelligence and the capabilities, so it has to make some tough decisions. One of those decisions is to try to move its ballistic missile launchers out of the range of the weapons it believes Ukraine will deploy. United24 Media says that's exactly what Russia was doing, as of October 1. The outlet points out that Russia had previously been launching its missiles from positions that were about 100 kilometers away from Ukraine.
The closer the launcher is, the less distance a missile has to travel, raising the likelihood of a successful strike. Plus, the closer a launcher is to Ukraine, the farther the fired missile can travel, which opens up more targets for Russia. Now, the outlet says, Russia has been forced to move many of its launchers back to a range of 200 kilometers or more. That could mean that some of Russia's shorter-range ballistic missiles are off the table and can't be used. Plus, a precedent has been set. If Ukraine proves it can consistently strike launchers at distances of 200 kilometers, they may be moved back even further. And then further still, and so on, further limiting Russia's options for its missile launches.
Ukraine needs to limit those launch options due to the second reason why it's employing its new strategy: Russia's ballistic missile assaults are intensifying. The last few days have highlighted the danger of Russia's ballistic missile threat. On October 11, just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to an energy strike ceasefire, Russia sent a swarm of drones and missiles to attack a power plant in Kharkiv. That strike was one of over 200 that Russia had launched against Ukraine's energy grid in the week leading up to October 11,
showcasing Russia's goal of cutting Ukrainian power and heat ahead of the winter months. Sadly, these strikes have killed over 150 people and injured around 700 more. A couple of days later, Russia launched another drone and missile blitz. Over 120 drones and 39 ballistic missiles were launched at Kharkiv and the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, with the damage done leading to 600,000 people being left without power on October 14. These two strikes are just a couple of examples of a much wider aerial campaign that Russia is
using to terrorize the Ukrainian people. Ballistic missiles are the key to this campaign, and Russia is doing everything that it can to increase its production of these dangerous weapons. Back in August, Zelenskyy revealed that Russia had a stockpile of around 600 ballistic missiles, and it is working to gain the capacity to build around 1,300 annually. Russia has also been reprioritizing its ballistic missile production. In an October 12 Facebook post, the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Defense Ministry revealed that Russia is taking away resources from Kinzhal
missile production and dedicating those resources to building more Iskander missiles. Why? The Kinzhal, for all of its power, isn't the most accurate missile in the world. Iskander missiles are much more capable of actually hitting their targets, so Russia wants as many of them as possible. All of this is being done in preparation for the plan that Ukraine claims Russia has for the winter. On October 9, Euromaidan Press reported that Ukraine has intercepted a Russian document that outlines a Russian plan to use up to 1,000 missiles, drones, and bombs to target 60 key targets. This campaign is intended to deprive several Ukrainian cities and regions of heating, electricity, water, and even sewerage services during the winter.
Let's call this out for what it is - a clear and obvious war crime. But it's what Ukraine believes Russia is planning, which brings us right back to the strategy of taking out the ballistic missile launchers. Ukraine can handle drones and cruise missiles relatively well. Ballistic missiles are another story, so Ukraine needs to ensure that as few of them as possible take to the skies. By shooting the archers, rather than the arrows, Ukraine does just that. And it's likely no coincidence that several Iskander launchers were among the eight that Ukraine hit between September and early October.
As for the third reason Ukraine is using this strategy, the whole arrows and archers analogy comes into play again. Ukraine doesn't have what it needs to stop Russia's ballistic missiles when they're in flight. At least, it can't stop all of them, or even the majority that Russia sends into Ukraine during its strikes. It's no secret that Ukraine has been struggling with a shortage of the Patriot missile interceptors that are its best bet for taking down Russian ballistic missiles. Ukraine has been saying that it has had a shortage for most of the year, such as in August, when Zelenskyy thanked Ukraine's partners for sending more Patriot
missiles, but revealed that Ukraine still needed more ahead of winter. Sadly, it doesn't look like Ukraine is going to get what it needs. Partners are hesitant to give away too many of their Patriot missiles, as they believe that doing so could weaken their own defenses, as well as potentially put them in line for Russian retaliation. On October 10, the news broke that Spain and Greece have both refused to transfer additional Patriot interceptors to Ukraine. That refusal would have stung even more than most,
as the Patriot missiles in question are reportedly close to the end of their service lives. The Greek missiles, in particular, have been in service for 23 years, meaning they are right on the edge of their intended lifespan. Spain has at least announced the transfer of five interceptor missiles in September, though it isn't willing to offer more. Such heartbreaking news is nothing new for Ukraine, which now dedicates a huge amount of its diplomatic efforts to trying to get its hands on more of the missile interceptors it needs to stop Russia's ballistic missiles.
Ukraine is also working on its own solutions, such as the Project Freyja air defense system, on which it is working alongside several of its European partners. However, that system is set for its first combat tests in 2027, The New Voice of Ukraine reported on September 30. Obviously, that means it won't be ready to help Ukraine deal with the winter rampage that Russia has planned. What Ukraine has, for now, at least, is a patchwork of anti-ballistic missile defenses that can help to fill critical gaps, but are a long way away from providing the complete coverage that Ukraine needs.
The scramble for more Patriot missiles continues. Ukraine is licensing production of European missile interceptors, though that work won't start to make a true difference for several years. And Ukraine has signed contracts for 1,000 Patriot missiles, but the vast majority won't be arriving in time for winter. The stark truth is that Ukraine has limited capabilities when it comes to shooting Russia's ballistic missiles out of the sky. So, it's striking the launchers. As difficult a task as that is, Ukraine is doing everything that it can to destroy launchers or, at the very least, push those launchers as far away from its territory as possible.
Eight have been damaged or destroyed between September and early October. Ukraine's task, now and through the winter, will be to identify and destroy as many launchers as it is able. If interception isn't possible, then stopping the launches altogether is the next best thing. Project Freyja could eventually help with that, and it may be able to help sooner than anybody anticipated. Why do we say that? The missile that will serve as the core of this upcoming air defense system is based on another that Ukraine has been developing for months.
The FP-7 was in the works. Now, it's live, and it's being used for strikes against Russian targets. Ukraine has a ballistic missile of its own design, and that may allow it to turn General Winter back on Russia. Find out more by watching our video. But before you go, everything you see here is researched, verified, and produced by real people. If you value that, subscribe, comment below, and consider becoming a member for access to exclusive content.
